Bet of the Day – Texas Rangers at New York Yankees, Oct 18, 2010
October 18, 2010 Leave a comment
Texas Rangers (-115) at New York Yankees (+105), Over/Under 7.5
Pushed on yesterday’s bet, Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins. Today’s pick is on the ALCS. The series is even at 1-1. Both teams have shown some offense. The Rangers have shown better starting pitching. Tonight’s game shouldn’t disappoint, it may be the key game in the series. The Rangers have to win with Lee; the Yankees know if they beat Lee they will be poised to win the series.
The Rangers bounced back nicely after a late inning collapse in game 1. Now they head to New York with their ace taking the mound. In road games, the Rangers have hit .265 with a .322 OBP for 4.4 runs per game. They have allowed a .313 OBP for 4.2 runs per game. They hit better at home and tonight play in a similarly hitter friendly park. Starting pitcher Cliff Lee (14-9, 0.981 WHIP) dominated in two starts against Tampa Bay. Lee pitched well in one game last year against the Yankees but gave up 5 runs in his 2nd start of last year’s World Series. I did some extra homework on this game; Lee pitched 7 innings only giving up 2 runs and the Phillies were up by 8, Manuel left him in too long and the Yankees quickly scored 3 in the 8th and Manuel pulled Lee. It was a better outing than the stat line shows. I like that Lee got his normal rest for this game. Lee will pitch well but will need to go deep; as seen on Friday, the Yankees can score quickly when given the opportunity.
The Yankees gave up way too many runs too early in both games. Good new for the Yankees, they score runs at home. In the 2010 regular season, they batted .280 with a .355 OBP for 5.8 runs per game at home. They allowed a .315 OBP for 4.5 runs per game. Proven playoff pitcher Andy Pettitte (12-3, 1.250 WHIP) takes the mound tonight. Pettitte pitched well in his start in the division series (7 IP, 5 hits for 2 earned runs). He pitches well in big games and is coming off a much improved start (on form). The Yankees will be tough at home tonight.
My baseball model predicts Rangers 4.3 over Yankees 4.0 for 8.3 total runs. The Yankees get on base more often and score very efficiently at home. Lee allows fewer walks and hits per inning than Pettitte. The key variance contributors are the Yankees scoring efficiency and the walks and hits allowed by Cliff Lee. The Yankees will get at least a few runners on tonight, if they can’t convert runners to runs at a similar rate the game swings to the Rangers. Lee has to pitch at or better than his average or the Rangers will lose.
Tough game to pick. I have gone back and forth on this game, but I am taking the Rangers at home. Here’s why. A rested Cliff Lee will pitch well. The Rangers have to win with Lee on the mound. The Rangers are hitting well and Pettitte will give up a few runs. Bet on the Texas Rangers on the money line -115.
Feel free to comment ask questions below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com. Follow me on Twitter for all my picks. Good Luck!