MLB Betting Simulations and Plays – September 11, 2012

15 games on today’s MLB schedule. 2 system plays: Blue Jays -160 and White Sox -106.

CLICK HERE for today’s MLB simulations.

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Bet of the Day – Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, Sept. 28, 2010

Boston Red Sox (-105) at Chicago White Sox (-105), Over/Under 9

Yesterday’s bet, Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, was a winner.  Slim Pickens on games today.  Speaking of slim, the Red Sox still have the slimmest of hopes for a playoff spot.  But they are playing well.  The White Sox are out but manager Ozzie Guillen is adamant they aren’t packing it in.

The Red Sox have won 4 of their last 7 batting .290 with a .360 OBP for 5.0 runs per game.  The Red Sox are 5.5 games out of the Wild Card; they would need to win out and the Yankees or Rays lose out.  Starting pitcher John Lackey (13-11, 1.451 WHIP) hasn’t been great this year.  He has shown signs of improvement recently (1.146 WHIP in last 3 games) and pitches well against the White Sox.  The Red Sox are a good road team (43-35).  They are batting .263 with a .330 OBP for 5.0 runs per game.  Their weakness is their bullpen (1.469 WHIP with 13 of their total 19 blown saves in road games).  Expect the Red Sox to play to win today but they will need a good outing from Lackey and the bullpen.

The White Sox haven’t been great down the stretch.  They have won 4 of their last 7 but have only hit .233 with a .275 OBP for 2.7 runs per game.  The White Sox swept the previous series over the Red Sox (that sweep came during a long winning streak).  The White Sox start Edwin Jackson tonight.  Jackson (9-12, 1.408 WHIP) is coming off good win at Oakland (7 IP, 5 hits and 2 earned runs).  Jackson hasn’t faced Boston this year but hasn’t done well in the past (2-4, 1.804 WHIP).  It’s hard to gauge if the White Sox are showing up tonight or not.

Using home/away stats, my baseball model predicts Chicago 5.36 over Boston 4.91 for 10.27 total runs.  These teams are extremely close on paper in all categories.  Both teams score very efficiently and field mediocre pitching tonight.  I also ran the model using total stats.  The projected score based on all stats is Boston 5.07 over 4.87 for 9.94 total runs.  Boston gets on base more consistently and scores slightly more efficiently.

Tonight I am taking the Boston Red Sox.  Here’s why.  The Red Sox are hitting well.  The Red Sox have a small playoff chance and need to win.  Chicago has nothing to play for; they aren’t playing a division leader so I am not really sold they want to play the spoiler either.  Edwin Jackson can have control issues and faces an excellent on-base team.  Bet on the Boston Red Sox on the money line -105.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox, Sept 4, 2010 Game 1

Chicago White Sox (+135) at Boston Red Sox (-145), Over/Under 8, 1:05 ET

This game was postponed yesterday, but the consolation Bet of the Day was a winner.  Today I am going to update and repost this game, but also post a college football game.  The White Sox (73-60) and Boston (76-58) will play two games in Boston today.  Both teams need every win for a wild card chance.  The teams are in similar playoff spots and look very close on paper.  Also, Manny Ramirez (with a new haircut?) returns to Boston on an AL team.  But the crowd won’t be as charged for an early afternoon game as they would have been last night.

The White Sox have won 3 games in a row and 5 of their last 7.  During that stretch, they have batted .314 with a .382 OBP averaging 6.7 runs per game.  John Danks (12-9, 1.181 WHIP) takes the mound following a rocky last outing (4.3 IP giving up 8 earned runs with 3 home runs).  Danks has been strong throughout the year but appears to be a bit off form coming into tonight’s game.  Will the White Sox bats be enough if Danks tanks?

The Red Sox have been mediocre of late; winning only 3 of their last 7.  That did include games at Tampa Bay and the rejuvenated Baltimore Orioles.  They batted .245 with a .291 OBP over that stretch.  A return home and new staff ace Clay Buchholz (15-5, 1.186 ERA) taking the mound may be the needed jolt.  Buchholz has been excellent for most of the year and hasn’t had a loss decision since July 21st.  Buccholz doesn’t allow many hits or home runs and this is his first meeting against the White Sox in 2010.

On to the fun (game simulations).   My baseball model projects a score of Boston 4.36 to Chicago 4.23 for 8.59 total runs.  As mentioned earlier, when reviewing the total stats these teams look very similar.  Boston has an advantage in drawn walks and bullpen, while the White Sox are more efficient scoring.  With a +135/-145 money line, this would indicate the value is with Chicago…….But, I thought I would dig deeper in the stats.  Changing my simulation to use home/away data produced much different results: Boston 4.44 to Chicago 3.01 for 7.45 total runs with a 2 deviation spread in the score.  The key difference here is that Boston is slightly more efficient scoring and the bullpen has performed better at home.  The biggest change is in Chicago’s scoring efficiency: 0.399 for All games vs. 0.301 for road games.  Chicago has clearly been less effective at the plate in road games.

Although Chicago is coming off a sweep of Cleveland, I am siding with the Red Sox today.  Here is why.  First, Buchholz continues to pitch well while Danks appears to be off form.  Second, Chicago has been much less effective at the plate in road games.  Third, Boston finds ways to score even when they don’t hit.  Fourth, Boston has faced tougher games of late which may skew recent results/statistics.  Bet on the Boston Red Sox on the Money Line -145 in Game 1.  Today’s non-repost game will be college football so send your suggestion for Bet of the Day.  Follow me on twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins – August 17, 2010 8:10 ET

Today’s game is the opener in a tight division race between the Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins.  The White Sox are 3-7 in their last 1o games and have dropped their last 3 series.  John Danks returns to the mound for the Sox following a strong 8 inning 6 hit and 1 run outing against these Twins.  Chicago needs a big series or they could find themselves out of the division.

The Twins have won 4 straight and now have a 3 game lead on the White Sox in the AL Central Division.  Scott Baker gave up 5 runs in his last start but had plenty of run support for the win.  Baker has won 3 of his last 4 starts.  Minnesota has been playing well lately and has a .363 OBP at home.

I simulated the game 10,000 times and it predicts a clear winner, Minnesota with 4.65 runs over the White Sox with  3.o9 runs (with a two standard deviation cushion).  These results are driven by Minnesota’s ability to get on base  and Chicago’s slight tendency to walk runners.

Scott Baker is susceptible to giving up home runs.  Unfortunately, Chicago doesn’t draw many walks and their hitting falls off on the road (.308 OBP and .256 BA in road games).  Based on the model results and the Home/Away play for both teams, today’s play is bet the Minnesota Twins on the Money Line (-120).

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