NFL Simulations – Week 10 2012

14 games on the NFL schedule. 7 system plays: NYG/CIN Over 48.5, ATL/NO Over 53.5, TB -3, NYJ +6, DAL -1.5, HOU +1, and KC/PIT Under 42. NFL system plays are 12-11-0 season to date.

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NFL Simulations – Week 9 2012

14 games on the NFL schedule. 2 system plays: Chiefs/Chargers Under 42.5 and Vikings +5. NFL system plays are 12-9-0 season to date.

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NFL Simulations – Week 8 2012

14 games on the NFL schedule. 6 system plays: Vikings -6, Chargers -2.5, Falcons +2.5, Rams +7, Broncos -6, 49ers/Cardinals Under 37.5. NFL system plays are 9-6-0 season to date.

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NFL Simulations – Week 7 2012

13 games on the NFL schedule. 4 system plays: SEA/SF Under 37.5, Texans -6.5, Vikings -6 and PIT/CIN Over 46. NFL system plays are 6-5-0 season to date.

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Bet of the Day – New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings, Dec. 12, 2010

New York Giants (-4) vs. Minnesota (+4), Over/Under 44

Yesterday’s bet, Eagles at Cowboys, was a winner.  I don’t have a strong opinion on the Baltimore and Houston game tonight.  So I am going to pass on that game and go with the rescheduled Giants and Vikings game.  First, the Giants flight was redirected to Kansas City on Saturday due to snow.  Second, the Metrodome roof collapsed early Sunday morning.  Eventually the Giants vs. Vikings game was moved to Detroit.

The Giants (8-4) are coming off a solid divisional win over the Redskins.  They are in the thick of the playoff race; tonight is  a needed win.  The Giants average 6.0 yards per play (YPP) and 15.0 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.1 YPP and 14.1 YPPT.  Not very efficient.  This is primarily driven by their turnovers.  In 7 of their 12 games they have turned the ball over 3 or more times.  QB Eli Manning averages 7.44 yards per attempt (YPA) with 23 TDs and 17 INTs for an 88.6 QB rating.  Manning will likely have to rely on the pass against the stout Vikings’ defensive front.  Hard to tell how the delay and redirection will impact the Giants, but not playing on Minnesota’s home field has to help.

The Vikings (5-7) have won 2 straight against mediocre competition.  Brett Favre is a game-time decision.  Moving the game to Detroit eliminates the home advantage for the Vikings but the 1-day delay does give Favre more time to recover.  The Vikings average 5.6 YPP and 17.9 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.2 YPP and 14.3 YPPT.  Like the Giants, they turn the ball over too much.  Whether Favre plays or not, you have to expect a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson tonight.  The Vikings are pretty much out of the playoffs, so one has to wonder how motivated they are for this game.

The Sagarin Ratings have New York 22.59 and Minnesota 18.83.  This indicates the fair line is New York -3.76.  This is very close to the current line.

My NFL model predicts the Giants 23.1 over the Vikings 17.1 for 40.2 total points.  The Giants gain more yards on offense and are more efficient at converting points.  The teams have nearly identical defensive statistics.  Minnesota has played a tougher schedule.  The overwhelming  variance contributor is Minnesota’s defensive passing yards allowed.  Minnesota has to limit Manning and the Giants’ passing yardage to win and/or cover the spread.

Tonight I am taking the under.  Here’s why.  Favre is still questionable and the Vikings will continue to become more reliant on the running game.  Both teams have good defenses (they are 1 and 2 in yards allowed per game in the NFC).  I modeled the game at 40.2 total points and at 44, there is value in the under.  Bet on the Giants/Vikings Under 44.

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Bet of the Day – Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets, Oct. 11, 2010

Minnesota Vikings (+5) at New York Jets (-5), Over/Under 38.5

Yesterday’s bet, Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys, was a loser.  The 2nd leg of Thursday’s teaser won.  Big match-up tonight on Monday Night Football.  The Vikings had a busy week in the media; acquiring Randy Moss and the much-anticipated Brett Favre scandal hit the newswire (Amazing how the scandal from when Favre was with the Jets hit the week the Vikings visit).  The Jets keep winning; maybe they are who we thought they were?  Expect a good game tonight.

The Vikings haven’t started well.  They are averaging 5.4 yards per play (YPP) and 22.9 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense while allowing 5 YPP and 21.8 YPPT on defense.  Annual training camp holdout QB Brett Favre is averaging 6.16 yards per attempt (YPA) for 2 TDs and 6 INTs with a 60.4 QB rating.  Favre hasn’t had much help but he also hasn’t helped himself.  The Vikings will improve on offense and will be highly motivated for tonight’s game.  Will they improve enough to hang with the Jets?

The Jets are backing up most of their talk.  They are averaging 5.8 YPP and 12.8 YPPT on offense while allowing 5.1 YPP and 20.2 YPPT on defense.  QB Mark Sanchez is averaging 6.9 YPA for 8 TDs and 0 INTs with a 105.3 QB rating.  What happened to the sophomore slump?  The Jets also get Santonio Holmes and Darrelle Revis back tonight.  The Jets are one of the best teams in the league.  With all the hype and recent success, all teams are gunning to beat them.

The Sagarin Ratings have New York 26.48 and Minnesota 18.67.  With the 2.57 point home advantage, the fair betting line is New York -10.38.  This indicates the betting value is with the New York Jets -5.  According to Pregame.com, 52% of bets are on the Vikings and the line has moved from Jets -5.5 to -5.

My NFL model predicts New York 23.9 over Minnesota 11.7 for 35.6 total points.  Statistically, the teams are very close on offense and defense.  The difference is New York’s ability to convert points.  A big part of that is they haven’t turned the ball over (once in 4 games).  The Vikings have 8 turnovers in 3 games.  The Vikings will have to finish red zone opportunities and limit turnovers to win.

Tonight, I think situational factors and a motivated Vikings team will make this closer than expected.  I am taking the Vikings plus the points.  Here’s why.  The Vikings played bad in their first 2 games and kept the games close against good teams.  The Jets are coming off 3 straight divisional games.  Worst case, adding Randy Moss is a distraction for the Jets secondary.  Best case, he stretches the field and makes an immediate impact.  The Vikings have 8 turnovers, the Jets have 1; that rate won’t last for either team.  The Vikings need this game much more and are motivated.  Bet on the Minnesota Vikings +5.

Feel free to comment or ask a question below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Game Note – New Orleans Saints14, Minnesota Vikings 9

As I mentioned in yesterday’s bet of the day, the Vikings averaged 12.9 yards per point scored (YPPT) and the Saints averaged 12.1 YPPT last year.  Last night, the Vikings averaged 28.11 YPPT and the Saints averaged 22.0 YPPT.  This is  much less efficient for both teams.  Is this good defense, sloppy first game play, or Minnesota’s game plan after the Saints first drive?  There was only 1 turnover and 9 penalties, but there were 2 missed field goals, 1 missed extra point and 12 punts.  Seemed to me like both teams were sloppy but Minnesota wanted to slow the game down any way they could (I guess it worked, they only lost by 5, not 20).

New Orleans will tighten up and get their game cleaner.    Minnesota’s passing chemistry was clearly off, should the Viking fans be worried or was last night Favre’s training camp?

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