World Series Simulation Results

Yesterday’s bet, NY Giants at Dallas Cowboys, was a loser.  4 losses in a row.  Not good.  Have gone 6-2 the last two days on Twitter, so there is hope.  But I am in a mathematical slump (log 0.05/log (1 – Win%)).  Isn’t the first, won’t be the last, but I will come out of it and will have similar winning streaks.

Not going with the normal bet of the day.  Today, I am going to detail my simulation results of the World Series and make my series bet.  Currently, the series price is Texas -145 and San Francisco +125.  I must say upfront, my better half is from the bay area and has already warned me about picking anything but a Giants World Series win.  I simulated all 7 games.  I made some slight adjustments to both teams to account for the designated hitter.  Here are the exact model results:

Game 1 – Rangers (Lee) 3.5 over Giants (Lincecum) 3.2, 6.7 total runs   Rangers lead 1-0
Game 2 – Giants (Cain) 3.8 over Rangers (Wilson) 2.9 for 6.7 total runs   Series tied 1-1
Game 3 – Rangers (Lewis) 5.2 over Giants (Sanchez) 3.7 for 8.9 total runs   Rangers lead  2-1
Game 4 – Rangers (Hunter) 4.6 over Giants (Bumgarner) 3.9 for 8.4 total runs   Rangers lead 3-1
Game 5 – Rangers (Lee) 4.6 over Giants (Lincecum) 3.0 for 7.6 total runs   Rangers win 4-1
Game 6 – Giants (Cain) 3.8 over Rangers (Wilson) 2.9 for 6.7 total runs
Game 7 – Giants (Sanchez) 3.6 over Rangers (Lewis) 3.4 for 6.9 total runs

 

The model predicts Texas will win 59% of the time.  Against a -145 line, there is some positive value betting on the Rangers.  This assumes you want to bet purely on model results.

I am going to take a slightly different strategy.  If Lincecum pitches at his best, he can beat Lee.  Add in the Rangers traveling to a very tough park for hitters and they lose their DH.  The Giants have shown some toughness.  I also think the Giants have a more complete pitching staff.  Games 3 and 4 have less reliable pitching (by both teams) in a hitter friendly park and one swing of the bat could change the series.  Bet on the San Francisco Giants +125.  Wait until close to first pitch tomorrow before (if) you pull the trigger on this bet.  If the Giants win tomorrow, I am going to check for a flip in the series price.  For example, I am going to bet the Giants +125 series bet tomorrow before first pitch.  If they win Game 1, and the series price flips to Rangers +120, I may bet the Rangers +120 and lock in a guaranteed profit.  Also note, the series line is better than the game line tomorrow for the Giants; it’s sitting at +105 to +115 most places.  With that said, the series price may never flip and I am not counting on it.  I think the Giants are a good team with very tough pitching.  I will update this post as the prices change and if I see an opportunity to lock in a profit.

Update – 10/28/10 1:00 PM Pacific

If you want to buy Rangers side of the series now it is currently at +125.  As mentioned previously, if you buy the Rangers for the same amount you previously put on the Giants, you will have a +0.25 risk-free profit.

Will be posting NFL Week 8 Simulations tonight.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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Bet of the Day – Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, Oct. 21, 2010

Philadelphia Phillies (-120) at San Francisco Giants (+110), Over/Under 5.5

No bet of the day yesterday.  2-2 on Twitter bets.  The Giants won in dramatic fashion last night.  They now lead the series 3-1.  Did anyone have a Giants vs. Rangers series bet?  Both teams send their staff aces back to the mound; Doc vs. the Kid, part II.  In their first meeting Halladay and Lincecum both gave up 2 home runs.  Combined they only gave up 42 hrs during their 66 regular season games (462.3 innings).  One has to believe we won’t see the same level of offensive production in this game.  The Giants know how to win games 2-1.  Do the Phillies?  It will be fun.

The Phillies are in a must win spot.  Their bats haven’t been great, but they have faced pretty tough pitching.  In 2010, the Phillies batted .258 with a .326 OBP for 4.7 runs per game.  They allowed a .303 OBP for 3.9 runs per game.  Harry Leroy Halladay (22-11, 1.012 WHIP) takes the mound tonight.  Halladay doesn’t give up walks and manages the game very well.  Halladay will need to go deep into the game; the Phillies don’t want to expose their bullpen.  The Phillies will have their work cut out for them, but they certainly have the horses to turn the series around.

The Giants now have 3 chances to win the NLCS.  Strong pitching and timely hitting have carried them to a 6-2 playoff record.  In 2010, the Giants batted .255 with a .316 OBP for 4.2 runs per game.  They allowed a .307 OBP for 3.6 runs per game.  Starting pitcher Tim Lincecum (18-10, 1.235 WHIP) has been impressive in his 2 postseason starts.  His “blister problem” hasn’t seemed to bother him.  Lincecum does give up walks and will need to keep runners off the bases.  Can the Giants finish this series off at home?  They will be tough.

My baseball model predicts Phillies 4.0 over Giants 3.4 for 7.4 total runs.  The Phillies are a better offensive team; they get on base and score more efficiently.  The Giants have a better bullpen.  The key variance contributors are Lincecum’s walks and hits allowed and the Phillies ability to convert base runners to runs.  Lincecum will need to beat his regular season WHIP for the Giants to win.  The Phillies can’t waste opportunities.

Difficult game to call tonight.  The Phillies are in a must win situation; the Giants are a home underdog with their ace on the mound.  If we were in the regular season, I would take the home dog.  But tonight I am taking the Philadelphia Phillies.  Here’s why.  It’s do or die for the Phillies.  Halladay will keep runners off the bases.  My model gives the edge to the Phillies and there is betting value.  Bet on the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line -120.

Feel free to comment or ask a question below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com. Follow me on Twitter for all my picks. Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Texas Rangers at New York Yankees, Oct 18, 2010

Texas Rangers (-115) at New York Yankees (+105), Over/Under 7.5

Pushed on yesterday’s bet, Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins.  Today’s pick is on the ALCS.  The series is even at 1-1.  Both teams have shown some offense.  The Rangers have shown better starting pitching.  Tonight’s game shouldn’t disappoint, it may be the key game in the series.  The Rangers have to win with Lee; the Yankees know if they beat Lee they will be poised to win the series.

The Rangers bounced back nicely after a late inning collapse in game 1.  Now they head to New York with their ace taking the mound.  In road games, the Rangers have hit .265 with a .322 OBP for 4.4 runs per game.  They have allowed a .313 OBP for 4.2 runs per game.  They hit better at home and tonight play in a similarly hitter friendly park.  Starting pitcher Cliff Lee (14-9, 0.981 WHIP) dominated in two starts against Tampa Bay.  Lee pitched well in one game last year against the Yankees but gave up 5 runs in his 2nd start of last year’s World Series.  I did some extra homework on this game; Lee pitched 7 innings only giving up 2 runs and the Phillies were up by 8, Manuel left him in too long and the Yankees quickly scored 3 in the 8th and Manuel pulled Lee.  It was a better outing than the stat line shows.  I like that Lee got his normal rest for this game.  Lee will pitch well but will need to go deep; as seen on Friday, the Yankees can score quickly when given the opportunity.

The Yankees gave up way too many runs too early in both games.  Good new for the Yankees, they score runs at home.  In the 2010 regular season, they batted .280 with a .355 OBP for 5.8 runs per game at home.  They allowed a .315 OBP for 4.5 runs per game.  Proven playoff pitcher Andy Pettitte (12-3, 1.250 WHIP) takes the mound tonight.  Pettitte pitched well in his start in the division series (7 IP, 5 hits for 2 earned runs).  He pitches well in big games and is coming off a much improved start (on form).  The Yankees will be tough at home tonight.

My baseball model predicts Rangers 4.3 over Yankees 4.0 for 8.3 total runs.  The Yankees get on base more often and score very efficiently at home.  Lee allows fewer walks and hits per inning than Pettitte.  The key variance contributors are the Yankees scoring efficiency and the walks and hits allowed by Cliff Lee.  The Yankees will get at least a few runners on tonight, if they can’t convert runners to runs at a similar rate the game swings to the Rangers.  Lee has to pitch at or better than his average or the Rangers will lose.

Tough game to pick.  I have gone back and forth on this game, but I am taking the Rangers at home.  Here’s why.  A rested Cliff Lee will pitch well.  The Rangers have to win with Lee on the mound.  The Rangers are hitting well and Pettitte will give up a few runs.  Bet on the Texas Rangers on the money line -115.

Feel free to comment ask questions below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – New York Yankees at Texas Rangers, Oct. 15, 2010

New York Yankees (-140) at Texas Rangers (+130), Over/Under 8

Sometimes you are wrong.  On yesterday’s bet, I was completely wrong.  Time to move on and focus on our next win.  Today the ALCS kicks off.  The Yankees have been off for 6 days after a quick series with the Twins. The Rangers finished a 5 game series with the Rays on Tuesday.  Tonight’s game should kickoff an interesting series.  For the Yankees, a Sabathia start is a must win.

The New York Yankees walked through the division series.  As we saw in that series, the Yankees can turn it on when they need to.  They are rested and ready for tonight’s game.  The major question will be do they have enough pitching for the series.  The Yankees hit .268 with a .345 OBP for 5.3 runs per game.  They held teams to a .317 OBP for 4.2 runs per game.  Starting pitcher CC Sabathia (22-7, 1.194 WHIP) pitched decent in the division series.  Sabathia only faced Texas once this year.  He threw 6 innings giving up 3 hits and 1 earned run.  The Yankees need a big outing from Sabathia for a win tonight.

The Texas Rangers surprised many of us with 3 road wins over the Rays to win the division series.  The Rangers pitched well and were aggressive on offense against the Rays.  They will need to keep it rolling to beat the Yankees.  In 2010, the Rangers hit .275 with a .335 OBP for 4.8 runs per game.  On defense, they allowed a low .313 OBP for 4.2 runs per game.  Starting pitcher C.J.  Wilson (16-8, 1.228 WHIP) has developed into a top-shelf starting pitcher.  He finished the 2010 regular season in the top 10 in ERA in the American League.  Wilson hasn’t been great against the Yankees this year.  He didn’t go beyond 6 innings in any of his 3 starts and gave up 11 runs in 14.3 innings.  The Rangers feel like a team that can win this series; they are pitching well and scoring very efficiently.

My MLB model predicts Yankees 4.6 over Rangers 4.1 for 8.7 total runs.  On paper, they have similar on-base and bullpen statistics; the Yankees draw more walks while the Rangers get more hits.  The Yankees are a better overall offensive team.  Sabathia gives up fewer walks and hits.  The key variance in the model is the starting pitcher’s walks and hits allowed and each teams ability to convert base runners to runs.  Wilson has to limit walks allowed  for the Rangers to win.

Tonight I am taking the Yankees.  Here’s why.  Sabathia’s starts are a must win game for the Yankees.  The Yankees have more batting depth.  The pressure will be higher for Wilson and he hasn’t pitched great against the Yankees.  Bet on the New York Yankees on the money line -140.

Feel free to ask questions or comment below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays, Oct. 12, 2010

Texas Rangers (+100) at Tampa Bay Rays (-110), Over/Under 6.5

Just lost yesterday’s bet, Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets, on a last second interception.  Today’s game is the Rangers and Rays series finale.  A series where no one has won a home game yet.  Expect a tense game.

The Rangers seemed to have the series locked up after taking the opening 2 games in Tampa.  Now they return to Tampa tied with their hired gun on the mound.  In 2010 road games, the Rangers are batting .265  with a .322 OBP for 4.4 runs per game.  They allowed .314 OBP for 4.2 runs per game in 2010 road games.  They weren’t great on the road this year but proved they could win on the road when needed.  Cliff Lee (13-9, 0.994 WHIP) is on form and dominated in the series opener.  In his career, Lee is 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.997 WHIP against the Rays.  Lee is only 1-3 this year against the Rays; he has a 4.56 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in those 4 games.  Lee will pitch well, but will the Ranger bats get going again?

The Rays now have the momentum and seem confident returning home.  Is returning home a good thing?  Haven’t the Rays have been a better road team all year.  On paper yes, but Tropicana Field is the toughest place in MLB to score runs; don’t over value the difference in their home/away stats.  In 2010 home games, the Rays hit .240 with a .325 OBP for 4.2 runs per game.  They allowed .292  OBP for 3.7 runs in 2010 homes games.  The Rays will need a good outing from staff ace David Price if they have ALCS dreams.  Price (19-7, 1.204 WHIP) didn’t pitch bad in the opener but also didn’t shut down the Rangers.  Price has shown he can rebound and has pitched very well against teams that beat him last time they played.  The Rays will pull out all the stops tonight and I expect Price to pitch well.

My baseball model predicts a close game, Tampa Bay 3.4 over Texas 3.2.  The teams have similar on base numbers and starting pitcher stats (Lee away/Price home).  The difference is Tampa Bay is a more efficient scoring team and has a better bullpen.  The model variance all comes down to starting pitching.  Lee is a proven commodity in the post season but hasn’t pitched great (except last time out) versus the Rays this year.  Price doesn’t have the playoff chops [yet] but has proven he can rebound and fix flaws.  If either pitcher gives up more walks and hits than their average, they will have a tough time winning.

What a tough game to bet.  I am going to go with the Rays and a total bet.  Here’s why. Home team and momentum, they have a winning feel after the last two games.  Cliff Lee has had some difficulties with the Ray’s line up this season.  The Ray’s can successfully get on base and move runners without hits.  Bet on the Tampa Bay Ray’s on the money line -110.  Also, bet the Rangers/Rays Under 6.5.

Feel free to comment or ask a question below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins, Sept 5, 2010

Texas Ranger (-125) at Minnesota Twins (+115), Over/Under 8.5  2:10 ET

Yesterday’s bet of the day was winner.  Today’s we head back to the baseball diamond for a small market playoff preview.  The Texas Rangers (75-60) have lost 2 straight but still hold a comfortable 8-game lead in the AL West.  The Minnesota Twins (79-57) have won the first 2 in this series.  The Twins hold a 3.5 game lead in the AL Central.  Every win is critical to holding off the surging Chicago White Sox.

The Rangers took 3 of 4 from the Twins just 10 days ago.  Since then they have dropped 5 of  8.  The Rangers have only hit .270 with a .302 OBP for 3.6 runs in the last 7 games.  The last game in a 3-games series after 2 losses is a tough spot to turn things around.  Starting pitcher C.J. Wilson ( 14-5, 1.188 WHIP) has been solid this year.  Wilson doesn’t allow many hits and even fewer home runs.  Wilson’s had some minor control issues in road games, but you can expect another good outing today.  Probably AL MVP Josh Hamilton won’t be in the lineup today.  Will the Rangers have enough life in their bats today?

The Twins have won 5 of their last 7 on the backs of good pitching and defense.  Over that stretch, they have only batted .257 with a .306 OBP for 4.7 runs per game.  Nick Blackburn (8-9, 1.558 WHIP) makes his 3 start after being called back up from the minor leagues.  Blackburn was excellent in his last start, going 8.7 innings with 2 hits and no runs.  Joe Mauer returns to the lineup after a day off.

My game simulation projected a score of Texas 4.89 to Minnesota 4.16 for a total of 9.05 runs.  This was based on all games.  Texas’ scoring efficiency is the main variance contributor.  In reviewing the stat lines, there is a clear difference in both teams home and road play.  Texas is under .500 in road games, while Minnesota is .657 in home games.  Because of this discrepancy, I ran the model using home and road starts.  The model projected Minnesota 4.49 to Texas 4.05 for a total 8.54 runs.  Though the stats are similarly distributed for both teams, Minnesota is much more effective at advancing runners and scoring at home.  This is a clear advantage going into the finale.

Both teams are probable playoff teams and look very similar on paper.  But today, I am siding with the Twins.  Here’s why.  The Twins have won the first 2 games in the series and are a home underdog in the finale.  Also, the Twins are much better home team than the Rangers are a road team.  The betting value is definitely with Minnesota.  Bet on the Minnesota Twins on the Money Line +115.  Follow me on twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers – August 23, 2010 8:05 ET

After being swept in Tampa and splitting a series in Baltimore, the Texas Rangers (69-54) return home with the AL Central leading Minnesota Twins (72-52) visiting for a four game series.  The Twins are 8-2 over their last 10 games hitting with a .365 OBP over the last 7.  Nick Blackburn (7-7, 1.683 WHIP) takes the mound.   Blackburn hasn’t been very good lately having given up 19 runs on 25 hits in his last 3 starts.  He will need an improved start tonight to give the Twins a shot.

The Rangers have slumped a bit of late.  They were 2-5 in their last 7 with a .326 OBP and only 3.6 runs per game.   Rangers starting pitcher Rich Harden (4-4, 1.655 WHIP) returns to the rotation from a short disabled list stint (shoulder).  Harden hasn’t been great this year and only averages 5 innings per start.  Will Harden be crisp coming off the DL?

These teams are very similar on paper.  The game simulation projects a slight edge with Texas 5.2 to Minnesota 5.06.  Texas holds a slight edge in scoring efficiency while Minnesota has a slight edge in pitching.  Texas is the money line favorite at -150.  This indicates the betting value is with Minnesota.

Based on the close model results, concern over Harden’s return from the DL, and the away side betting value today’s bet is on Minnesota.  Bet Minnesota Twins on the +140 money line.  Good  luck!

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