NFL Simulations – Week 7 2012

13 games on the NFL schedule. 4 system plays: SEA/SF Under 37.5, Texans -6.5, Vikings -6 and PIT/CIN Over 46. NFL system plays are 6-5-0 season to date.

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Bet of the Day – Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, Nov. 1, 2010

Houston Texans (+5) at Indianapolis Colts (-5), Over/Under 51

Didn’t post a bet of the day yesterday.  Didn’t have an opinion on any of the big games.  Back to business today with the Monday Night Football game.  Both teams are coming off a bye week for a key divisional matchup.  The Texans beat the Colts in the season opener.  The Colts did throw for over 400 yards and out gain the Texans in that game.  The winner of tonight’s game will take the lead in the division.

The Texans are coming off a bye and a decent home win over the Chiefs.  The Texans average 6.4 yards per play (YPP) and 14.9 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On Defense, they allow 6.4 YPP and 14.7 YPPT.  Okay on Offense, but not great on defense.  QB Matt Schaub is averaging 7.81 yards per attempt (YPA) with 9 TDs and 5 INTs for a 93.0 QB rating.  The Texans are a decent team.  They ran the ball very well against the Colts last time out.  They surprised teams early in the season.  It will be hard to surprise the Colts tonight.

The Colts are 4-2 with both losses coming on the road.  Tonight is only their 3rd home game.  The Colts have question marks and injuries but will be around when playoff time comes.  On offense, the Colts average 6.0 YPP and 15.1 YPPT.  On defense, they allow 5.7 YPP and 16.5 YPPT.  Good on defense, but you would expect more efficiency from the Colts on offense.  QB Peyton Manning averages 7.54 YPA for 13 TDs and 2 INTs for a 103.4 QB rating.  The Colts are banged up; Manning will be without several of his key weapons.  Also, note the Colts will be without their normal punter Pat McAfee.  The Colts will be looking to send a message to a division rivalry.

The Sagarin Ratings have the Colts 25.08 and Texans 20.95.  With the 2.35 home advantage, the fair line is Colts -6.48.  According to pregame.com, 64% of bets are on the Colts but the line has moved from -6 to -5.  It seems sharp money is on the Texans.

My NFL model predicts Colts 34.8 over Texans 26.3 for 61.1 total points.  The Colts gain more yards but are slightly less efficient at converting points.  Both teams give up too many yards on defense; the Colts are more efficient on defense.  The Texans pass defense is the overwhelming variance contributor.  They allow 306 passing yards per game.  They need to be well below their mean defensive passing yards allowed to win tonight (based on scoring efficiency, every 25 passing yards allowed translates to 1.5 points).

Tonight I am taking the Colts and the Over in a teaser.  Here’s why.  The Colts are a better team.  This is a Monday Night divisional game at home; a must win.  The Colts have had an extra week to prepare for the Texans’ offense; it will show with Manning and the defense.  Despite some of his usual weapons missing, Manning still has plenty of talent around him.  The Texans give up too many passing yards and are one of the worst defenses in the league.  Both teams are excellent at converting points in the red zone.  Bet a 7-point teaser on the Indianapolis Colts +2 with Texans/Colts Over 44.

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