Tough Break for Cueto, Reds

MLB.com reports Mike Leake (8-9, 1.35 WHIP) will replace Johnny Cueto (19-9, 1.17 WHIP) on the Reds’ NLDS roster. After this move, Cueto isn’t eligible to pitch until the World Series.

Leake was added to the roster in place of the injured Johnny Cueto on Wednesday morning, after approval by Major League Baseball. It will be Leake who starts Game 4 of the NL Division Series against the Giants at 4:07 p.m. ET on TBS. The move means Cueto, felled by a right oblique strain, will not be eligible to pitch again until the World Series — if the Reds can get that far.

“It was a very, very tough decision,” Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. “But our medical staff felt, at best, that Johnny might be able to pitch one game in the next series if we get there. So we thought the importance of today’s game and the rest of the series, versus the one game next time, outweighed that. It’s a tough thing to have a potential Cy Young guy out of your rotation.”

Replacing a 19-game winner with a sub .500 pitcher is a major setback. Assuming they get by the San Francisco Giants, the Reds will certainly miss Cueto against the St. Louis Cardinals or Washington Nationals. Over the last 3 years, Cueto was 7-3 combined against the Cardinals and Nationals. Mike Leake was 5-4 over the same period facing the Cardinals and Nationals. Additionally, both teams have a higher batting average against Leake with the Cardinals hitting .314. May want to hedge your Reds’ future bets….of course the current Reds’ future price probably just got better.

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World Series Simulation Results

Yesterday’s bet, NY Giants at Dallas Cowboys, was a loser.  4 losses in a row.  Not good.  Have gone 6-2 the last two days on Twitter, so there is hope.  But I am in a mathematical slump (log 0.05/log (1 – Win%)).  Isn’t the first, won’t be the last, but I will come out of it and will have similar winning streaks.

Not going with the normal bet of the day.  Today, I am going to detail my simulation results of the World Series and make my series bet.  Currently, the series price is Texas -145 and San Francisco +125.  I must say upfront, my better half is from the bay area and has already warned me about picking anything but a Giants World Series win.  I simulated all 7 games.  I made some slight adjustments to both teams to account for the designated hitter.  Here are the exact model results:

Game 1 – Rangers (Lee) 3.5 over Giants (Lincecum) 3.2, 6.7 total runs   Rangers lead 1-0
Game 2 – Giants (Cain) 3.8 over Rangers (Wilson) 2.9 for 6.7 total runs   Series tied 1-1
Game 3 – Rangers (Lewis) 5.2 over Giants (Sanchez) 3.7 for 8.9 total runs   Rangers lead  2-1
Game 4 – Rangers (Hunter) 4.6 over Giants (Bumgarner) 3.9 for 8.4 total runs   Rangers lead 3-1
Game 5 – Rangers (Lee) 4.6 over Giants (Lincecum) 3.0 for 7.6 total runs   Rangers win 4-1
Game 6 – Giants (Cain) 3.8 over Rangers (Wilson) 2.9 for 6.7 total runs
Game 7 – Giants (Sanchez) 3.6 over Rangers (Lewis) 3.4 for 6.9 total runs

 

The model predicts Texas will win 59% of the time.  Against a -145 line, there is some positive value betting on the Rangers.  This assumes you want to bet purely on model results.

I am going to take a slightly different strategy.  If Lincecum pitches at his best, he can beat Lee.  Add in the Rangers traveling to a very tough park for hitters and they lose their DH.  The Giants have shown some toughness.  I also think the Giants have a more complete pitching staff.  Games 3 and 4 have less reliable pitching (by both teams) in a hitter friendly park and one swing of the bat could change the series.  Bet on the San Francisco Giants +125.  Wait until close to first pitch tomorrow before (if) you pull the trigger on this bet.  If the Giants win tomorrow, I am going to check for a flip in the series price.  For example, I am going to bet the Giants +125 series bet tomorrow before first pitch.  If they win Game 1, and the series price flips to Rangers +120, I may bet the Rangers +120 and lock in a guaranteed profit.  Also note, the series line is better than the game line tomorrow for the Giants; it’s sitting at +105 to +115 most places.  With that said, the series price may never flip and I am not counting on it.  I think the Giants are a good team with very tough pitching.  I will update this post as the prices change and if I see an opportunity to lock in a profit.

Update – 10/28/10 1:00 PM Pacific

If you want to buy Rangers side of the series now it is currently at +125.  As mentioned previously, if you buy the Rangers for the same amount you previously put on the Giants, you will have a +0.25 risk-free profit.

Will be posting NFL Week 8 Simulations tonight.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, Oct. 21, 2010

Philadelphia Phillies (-120) at San Francisco Giants (+110), Over/Under 5.5

No bet of the day yesterday.  2-2 on Twitter bets.  The Giants won in dramatic fashion last night.  They now lead the series 3-1.  Did anyone have a Giants vs. Rangers series bet?  Both teams send their staff aces back to the mound; Doc vs. the Kid, part II.  In their first meeting Halladay and Lincecum both gave up 2 home runs.  Combined they only gave up 42 hrs during their 66 regular season games (462.3 innings).  One has to believe we won’t see the same level of offensive production in this game.  The Giants know how to win games 2-1.  Do the Phillies?  It will be fun.

The Phillies are in a must win spot.  Their bats haven’t been great, but they have faced pretty tough pitching.  In 2010, the Phillies batted .258 with a .326 OBP for 4.7 runs per game.  They allowed a .303 OBP for 3.9 runs per game.  Harry Leroy Halladay (22-11, 1.012 WHIP) takes the mound tonight.  Halladay doesn’t give up walks and manages the game very well.  Halladay will need to go deep into the game; the Phillies don’t want to expose their bullpen.  The Phillies will have their work cut out for them, but they certainly have the horses to turn the series around.

The Giants now have 3 chances to win the NLCS.  Strong pitching and timely hitting have carried them to a 6-2 playoff record.  In 2010, the Giants batted .255 with a .316 OBP for 4.2 runs per game.  They allowed a .307 OBP for 3.6 runs per game.  Starting pitcher Tim Lincecum (18-10, 1.235 WHIP) has been impressive in his 2 postseason starts.  His “blister problem” hasn’t seemed to bother him.  Lincecum does give up walks and will need to keep runners off the bases.  Can the Giants finish this series off at home?  They will be tough.

My baseball model predicts Phillies 4.0 over Giants 3.4 for 7.4 total runs.  The Phillies are a better offensive team; they get on base and score more efficiently.  The Giants have a better bullpen.  The key variance contributors are Lincecum’s walks and hits allowed and the Phillies ability to convert base runners to runs.  Lincecum will need to beat his regular season WHIP for the Giants to win.  The Phillies can’t waste opportunities.

Difficult game to call tonight.  The Phillies are in a must win situation; the Giants are a home underdog with their ace on the mound.  If we were in the regular season, I would take the home dog.  But tonight I am taking the Philadelphia Phillies.  Here’s why.  It’s do or die for the Phillies.  Halladay will keep runners off the bases.  My model gives the edge to the Phillies and there is betting value.  Bet on the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line -120.

Feel free to comment or ask a question below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com. Follow me on Twitter for all my picks. Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, Oct. 19, 2010

Philadelphia Phillies (-115) at San Francisco Giants (+105), Over/Under 6.5

Yesterday’s bet, Texas Rangers at New York Yankees, was a winner.  Like last night, we have a 1-1 series with good pitching.  Phillies’ ace Roy Halladay lost Game 1 at home.  Roy #2, Roy Oswalt pitched great and regained the momentum in Game 2.  This is a key swing game in the series; a must win for the Giants.

As the regular season came to an end, the Phillies quickly became the odds-on favorite to win the World Series.  An easy cruise past the Reds only expanded this public opinion.  On the road, the Phillies have batted .256 with a .326 OBP for 4.7 runs per game scored.  They have allowed a .313 OBP for 4.0 runs per game.  Starting Pitcher Cole Hamels (13-11, 1.153 WHIP) is much improved this year.  Hamels comes off a 9 inning 5 hit shutout over the Reds.  Hamels is a proven commodity in the playoffs.  Hamels should be be good tonight but will the Phillies be able to score on Cain?

The Giants surprised everyone (maybe even themselves) with a Game 1 win in Philadelphia over Roy Halladay.  The Phillies regained their swagger in Game 2.  The Giants will need a big effort tonight to regain the momentum.  At home, the Giants batted .264 with a .324 OBP for4.2 runs per game.  They allowed a .298 OBP for 3.4 runs per game.  Starting Pitcher Matt Cain (13-11, 1.091 WHIP) had a good start against the Braves in the division series.  He was shaky near the end of the season in key games; there is at least a small question in how he will do under pressure.  He has very limited playoff experience.  Cain pitches better at home and it will be easier to settle into the game.

My baseball model predicts Giants 3.7 over Phillies 3.5 for 7.2 total runs.  The Phillies get on base and convert runs more efficiently.  Cain may have a slight edge in starting pitching but the Giants have a clear advantage in the bullpen.  The key variance contributors are the Giants scoring efficiency and the walks and hits allowed by the Giants starting pitching.  The Giants have to advance runners when on base or the Giant pitchers have to limit base runners for a chance to win.

For the 2nd day in a row, I am taking a road favorite.  Here’s why.  The Phillies lost with their ace and bounced back to take the momentum.  Hamels is proven in the playoffs; Cain is not.  The Phillies have a more complete offense; the Giants have had several home runs of late and can’t keep up the offensive production over the long run.  Bet on the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line -115.

Feel free to comment or ask questions below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants

Atlanta Braves (+105) at San Francisco Giants (-115), Over/Under 6.5

We had two bets yesterday on the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Kansas State Wildcats game.  We won the Over and the first leg of our teaser (Detriot Lions +4 is our 2nd leg).  Back to the diamond today for game 2 of the Braves and Giants series.  Last night, Lincecum pitched beautifully and a “possible” umpire error allowed the only and winning run to score for the Giants.  Tonight we get another great pitching match-up and hopefully an exciting game.

The Braves come into this game after squeaking into the playoffs followed by a tough opening loss.  Tonight’s game is a must win.  The Braves haven’t been a great road team in 2010.  On the road they hit .245 with a .325 OBP and .711 OPS for 4.2 runs per game.  They held opponents to a .321 OBP and .724 OPS for 4.1 runs per game but are now 35-47 on the road.  Starting pitcher Tommy Hanson (10-11, 1.174 WHIP) has pitched well but hasn’t had a decision in his last 3 starts.  Hanson is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in his last two starts against the Giants (note: both of those game were in Atlanta).  The Braves will need to buck their road losing trend and beat a good pitcher to win tonight.

The Giants’ win last night was how we expect them to win.  Strong pitching and grinding out a run or two.  The Giants are a good home team.  At home, they batted .257 with a .325 OBP and .745 OPS for 4.2 runs per game.  The Giants allowed a .298 OBP and .651 OPS for 3.3 runs per game.  Starting pitcher Matt Cain (13-11, 1.084 WHIP) got roughed up by San Diego last week (part of the ongoing San Diego in San Francisco curse according my better-half).  That was Cain’s first loss decision in nearly 6 weeks.  Cain gave up 3 runs in 5 innings in Atlanta in his only start against the Braves this year.  Cain will bounce back tonight and the Giants will be tough again at home.

Using home and away data, my baseball model predicts San Francisco 4.02 over Atlanta 2.99 for 7.01 total runs.  The teams get on base at about the same rate; the Giants hit slightly better at home and the Braves draw more walks.  The Giants score more efficiently (no surprise the Braves have had problems all year advancing runners) and their starting and relief pitchers allow fewer runners on base.  The major variance contributors are the Giants scoring efficiency and walks/hits allowed by Tommy Hanson.  What does this mean?  If the Giants play to their mean scoring efficiency, they probably win.  If they are a deviation below their average, it will be a very close game.  Similarly, Hanson has to have a huge performance for Atlanta to win tonight.

Tonight I am taking the home team.  Here’s why.  Atlanta isn’t a good road team and they have had trouble hitting in key spots all year.  The Giants are a good home team; their pitching has been phenomenal at home.  Cain should make a better appearance tonight.  My model predicts the Giants will win 75% of the time in this specific matchup.  Against a -115 line, there is positive betting value with the Giants.  Bet on the San Francisco Giants on the money line for -115.

Feel free to comment or ask a question below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck

Bet of the Day – San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, Sept 24, 2010

San Francisco Giants (+115) at Colorado Rockies (-125), Over/Under 8

Yesterday’s bet, Miami Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Panthers, was a loser.  Wasn’t even close.  It was the end of a 5 day win streak.  Tonight, the NL West-leading Giants kickoff a series with the Rockies.  While the Giants are in the thick of the NL West race, this series is Colorado’s last chance.  It will be a fun series

Last night, the Giants jumped on the Cubs early for a 13-0 win to regain the NL West lead (it was a bit of a fluke game, so don’t get too enamored with 13 runs).  The Giants have won 4 of their last 7.  Their batting has been decent (.331 OBP for 4.9 runs per game), but their pitching has been excellent. Over the last 7 games, they have allowed a stingy .181 batting average with a .225 OBP for only 1.6 runs per game.  Tonight, Tim Lincecum takes the mound (14-10, 1.307 WHIP).  Wonder boy Lincecum hasn’t been his usual self in 2010 but has pitched well of late.  Lincecum is 6-5 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.410 WHIP in 14 starts against the Rockies (1-2 in 2010).  He will need a huge game against a desperate Rockies team.

Five days ago, the Rockies were 1 game back of the NL West lead and had won 13 of 15 games.  Today they are 3.5 games back and have lost 4 games in a row.  The good news, they are back home at Coors Field where they are 51-24 and .035 OBP points better for the season.  The Rockies continued to hit well on the road, but their pitching wasn’t very good.  Over the last 7 games, they hit .277 with a .364 OBP for 6.9 runs per game, but their opponents hit .287 with a .349 OBP for 5.9 runs per game (in that 7 game sample there was a Rockies 12-2 win to skew the runs per game).  Scoring won’t likely be a problem for the Rockies tonight but starting pitcher Jhoulys Chacin (9-9, 1.293 WHIP) will need another strong outing.  Chacin is coming off an 8 inning 9 hit, 0 walk and 0 run outing.  Chacin doesn’t give up many hits or home runs but has bouts with free bases.  Chacin’s best outings have come in 2’s, so expect another good effort tonight.

My baseball model predicts Colorado 5.80 over San Francisco 3.61 for 9.41 total runs.  This is a big spread for my model.  Digging into the home/away stats, Colorado is a better hitting team.  Colorado’s bullpen allows fewer walks and hits.  The key variance contributors are Colorado’s scoring efficiency and Tim Lincecum’s hits and walks allowed.  What does this mean?  If Lincecum pitches to his 2010 road average and Colorado’s home scoring efficiency is at average, the Rockies will be hard to beat (they are actually so efficient at home they could be a full deviation off the average and would still likely win).  It also means, San Francisco has to score runs.

An interesting note from Pregame.com’s Sportbook Spy, of the 2342 bets on this game’s money line, 76% are on the Giants.  The line is moving toward the Rockies, and to me indicates some smart money is on the Rockies.

I don’t normally take a team on a losing streak, but tonight I am taking the Rockies.  Here’s why.  This is it for the Rockies, they have 10 games remaining and a loss tonight would probably be the end.  The Rockies are great at home.  The Rockies bats are still warm.  Jhoulys Chacin is on form and has pitched well against the Giants in the past.  Last, Lincecum’s name alone drives the price down and there is betting value with the Rockies.   Bet on the Colorado Rockies on the money line -120.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, Sept 15, 2010 10:15 ET

LA Dodgers (+130) at San Francisco Giants (-140), Over/Under 7

Yesterday’s bet was a loser in extra innings.  First two losses in a row over first 31 days.  Today’s game is the LA Dodgers visiting the San Francisco Giants.  The Giants are now 1.5 games behind the Padres in the NL West division and the Braves for a wild card spot.  The Dodgers are out of the running (unless they can win out and the Padres, Giants, and Rockies all lose out).

The Dodgers held on for a close 1-0 win last night to open the series.  Over their last 7 games, they are batting .173 with a .250 OBP for 2.6 runs per game.   They have won 3 of the last 4 games.  Are they coming out of their slump?  Chad Billingsley (11-9, 1.319 WHIP) has been good this year but only decent of late.  Billingsley gave up 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 5 walks over 5.3 innings in his last start.  He does a good job of limiting runs scored.  The Dodgers are .497 on the year but are only 31-42 on the road.

The San Francisco Giants need every win they can get.  They have won 4 of their last 7 games batting .230 with a .270 OBP averaging 3.0 runs per game.  The Giants are efficient scorers and good home team (42-28, .600).  Matt Cain (11-10, 1.125 WHIP) starts tonight for the Giants.  Cain’s pitching has been better than his record reflects.  He’s been better at home averaging 6.9 innings per game with a 2.70 ERA and 0.993 WHIP.  Cain hasn’t lost at home since June 29th.  Expect a big start tonight from Cain but the Giants need to hit better to ensure a win.

I simulated the game 10,000 times using home and away stats for both teams.  My model predicts San Francisco 4.42 over Los Angeles 3.13 for 7.55 total runs.  The run difference is a 1.5 standard deviation spread. This indicates the betting value is with the Giants at -140 money line.  Digging into the data, the Dodgers are slightly better at the plate but the Giants score more efficiently.  San Francisco is clearly the better pitching team; in this game the model projects San Francisco to allow 8.71 walks and hits while Los Angeles will allow 11.89 walks and hits.  The key variance contributors are the Giants scoring efficiency and the walks and hits allowed by Billingsley.  What this means is if Billingsley pitches to average the Giants should win.

For today’s bet of the day, I am taking the San Francisco Giants.  Here’s why.  The Giants are a good home team and the Dodgers are clearly less effective on the road.  Matt Cain doesn’t allow many baserunners; even less at home.  Chad Billingsley is coming of a loss where he gave up 4 earned runs.  Bet on the San Francisco Giants on the money line -140. Follow me on twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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