Bet of the Day – Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins, Nov. 15, 2010

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Washington Redskins (+3.5), Over/Under 42.5

Yesterday’s bet, Patriots at Steelers, was a winner.  Big Monday night divisional game tonight.  This is the 2nd meeting between the Eagles at Redskins.  The 1st meeting ended with a small piece of redemption for Donovan McNabb and a rib injury for Michael Vick.  Hopefully, we will have an exciting game tonight.

The Eagles (5-3) are coming off a good win over the Colts.  The Eagles average 6.1 yards per play (YPP) and 15.2 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.1 YPP and 14.0 YPPT.  Not too efficient.  QB Michael Vick is back in the starting role.  Vick averages 8.14 yards per attempt (YPA) with 7 TDs and 0 INTs for a 105.3 QB rating.  Vick has also rushed for 261 yards with 2 TDs and 1 fumble.  The Eagles are a deserved favorite going into this game but the line has now passed a key number.  Are the Eagles a square play?

The Redskins (4-4) enter this game off a bye week and plenty of controversy.  They are coming off a loss where there were under 600 total yards but 62 points score.  The Redskins average 5.6 YPP and 16.8 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allowed 5.8 YPP and 18.5 YPPT.  QB Donovan McNabb averages 7.12 YPA with 7 TDs and 8 INTs for a 76.0 QB rating.  Expecting a solid effort from McNabb.  The Redskins will be without RB Clinton Portis.  There are several unknowns with Washington tonight.  They are the home underdog on Monday night; can they put together a complete game tonight?

The Sagarin Ratings have Philadelphia 23.75 and Washington 19.34.  With the 2.90 home advantage, the fair line is Eagles -1.51.

My NFL model predicts Philadelphia 28.5 over Washington 20.7 for 49.2 total points.  Philadelphia has better rushing production and is more efficient of offense.  On defense, the Redskins give up too many passing yards but is more efficient.  The key variance contributor is Washington’s passing defense.  To win the game, the Redskins have give up fewer passing yards.

Philadelphia is the better team on paper; Washington is a home underdog with several unknowns.  So tonight I am taking the Over.  Here’s why.  Both teams are average on defense.  Vick is healthy and McNabb will be motivated.  The Redskins pass defense is suspect and will need to play better to limit points.  Bet the Eagles/Redskins Over 42.5.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  [Note: I am traveling to DC today, so I may not have any Twitter picks today]. Good Luck!

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Bet of the Day – Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins, October 17, 2010

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Washington Redskins (+3), Over/Under 44

Yesterday’s bet, Ohio State at Wisconsin, was a loser.  Today’s game is the Sunday night game.  Both teams are coming off wins but have injury and defense concerns.

The Colts (3-2) are third in their division and have a bye next week.  They aren’t as good as they were last year but still have a very potent offense.  They Colts are averaging 5.8 yards per play (YPP) and 14.6 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they are allowing 5.8 YPP and 17.1 YPPT.  They have shown the ability to keep teams out of the end zone and force field goals.  QB Peyton Manning is averaging 7.45 yards per attempt (YPA) for 11 TDs and 2 INTs with a 102.6 QB rating.  RB Joseph Addai is probable today but will likely see limited action.  The Colts’ will need to establish some sort of run today to win the game.

The Redskins (3-2) have won 2 straight big games over the Eagles and Packers.  Are they in an upset spot today?  They are averaging 6.0 YPP and 18.9 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they are averaging 5.9 YPP and 22.3 YPPT.  They give up too many yards but do a good job of limiting scoring.  QB Donovan McNabb is averaging 7.74 YPA for 4 TDs and 3 INTs with an 81.9 QB rating.  The Redskins are without RB Clinton Portis today.  They will need more offensive production to stay with the Colts.

The Sagarin Ratings have Indianapolis at 26.08 and Washington at 18.92.  With the 2.88 point home advantage, the fair betting line is the Colts -4.28.  According to pregame.com, 82% of bets are the Colts but the line has gone from -4 to -3.  Are the Sharp bettors on the Redskins?

My NFL model predicts Colts 34.0 over Redskins 19.6 for 53.6 total points.  On paper, both teams give up too many yards on defense and pass the ball well.  The Colts pass the ball better and more efficiently convert points.  The key variance contributors in the model are Washington’s scoring efficiency and passing game.  They have to pass the ball above their average and convert points to win today.

Today, I am going against what feels like a sharp play and the home underdog.  I am taking the Colts.  Here’s why.  The Redskins have had two big wins in a row and are in a deflation spot.  The Colts move the ball in the air.  The Redskins’ pass defense is questionable.  The Colts had a big let down game 2 weeks ago and ground out a win last week.  I expect a step forward today.  Bet on the Indianapolis Colts -3.

Feel free to ask questions or comment below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles, Oct. 3, 2010

Washington Redskins (+6) at Philadelphia Eagles (-6), Over/Under 46

Yesterday’s bet, Stanford Cardinals at Oregon Ducks, was a winner.  Also, 3-0 on my Twitter bets yesterday.  Was going to post on the Bears and Giants today (betting Giants -3), but thought the tougher game was the Redskins and Eagles.  Here we go!

The Redskins (1-2) are coming off two not-good losses. The Redskins are averaging 6.4 yards per play (YPP) and 18.2 yards per point scored (YPPT) while allowing 5.8 YPP and 19 YPPT on defense.  The Eagles stop the run, but have been vulnerable to the pass.  Former Eagle QB Donovan McNabb is averaging 8.17 yards per attempt (YPA) for 2 TDs and 1 INT with an 89.2 QB rating.  McNabb is a definite improvement in Washington but he and the Redskins need to convert points.  The Redskins seem unlikely at first glance but this might be a perfect spot to take the points.

The Eagles are now 2-1 and coming off a big win at Jacksonville.  They are averaging 6.5 YPP and 13.3 YPPT while allowing 4.7 YPP and 15 YPPT.  QB Michael Vick is the talk of the league.  He’s clearly improved as a QB but I am not sold based on the wins to date (i.e. quality of teams played).  He is averaging 8.43 YPA for 6 TDs and 0 INTs for a 110.2 QB rating.  Pretty good.  The Eagles are +4 in turnovers but have had 28 penalties in 3 games; are the going to regress to the turnover mean today?

The Sagarin Ratings have Philadelphia 23.62 over Washington 15.15.  With the 3.16 home advantage, the fair line is Philadelphia -11.63.  With a 6 point spread, the value is with Philadelphia.

My football model predicts Philadelphia 36.3 over Washington 27.7 for 64 total points.  The Redskins move the ball in the air while the Eagles move it on the ground.  The Eagles defense is better on paper but has only played one good quarterback.  The variance contributors are Philadelphia’s pass offense and pass defense.  To win, the Eagles need to continue to move the ball in the air but must limit Vick’s downfield passing.

The Eagles are the better team.  But I am taking the Redskins plus the points (surprise surprise!).  Here’s why.  The Redskins have played better teams and quarterbacks.  McNabb and the Redskins will put their best game on the field today.  Vick hasn’t started in a “big game” as a starter since his return.  The Eagles will turn the ball over (Fumble gods).  McNabb will manage the game.  Bet on the Washington Redskins +6.

If you have questions or comments, please add below in the comment field or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins, Sept 12, 2010 8:15 ET

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Washington Redskins (+3.5), Over/Under 40

Yesterday’s bet was a winner on the Buckeyes.  Tonight, the Cowboys and Redskins renew the long rivalry.  As with every new season, the Cowboys have big expectations.  The new-look Redskins also have lofty expectations of under new coach Mike Shanahan.  Dallas isn’t a great road team.  The Redskins did win 3 of their 4 2009 wins at home.   Both teams are very physical so expect a good game tonight.

The Cowboys return a similar squad to their 11-5 2009 team.  Quarterback Tony Romo has decent weapons in recently extended Miles Austin, Roy Williams, and rookie Dez Bryant.  The Cowboys had the 6th rated offense in 2009 averaging 6.3 yards per play (YPP) but only 17.7 yards per point scored (YPPT).  What does that mean?  They moved the ball well but weren’t very efficient scorers.  The Cowboys only ranked 22nd in the Red Zone.  Their offense will have to convert points to win on the road today.  Romo had his best year in 2009 (4483 yards, 26 TDs and 9 INT).  Romo wasn’t consistent in preseason but is that cause for concern?  The bigger concern is the Cowboy defense.  Though they were 9th overall last year, their pass defense was 20th allowing 6.8 yards per attempt (YPA) and 19 TDs.  In road games, Dallas’ defense allowed 16.7 YPPT.  This is 3 YPPT less efficient than they are at home.  The Cowboys will be able to stop the run, but how will they handle Redskins veteran QB Donovan McNabb and his receivers.

Washington’s 2009 team was 4-12.  The Redskins added a new executive, coach and QB to their perennial under achieving roster.   The Redskins only averaged 5.4 YPP and 18.8 YPPT on offense while allowing 5.3 YPP and 15.2 YPPT on defense.  They weren’t very effective moving the ball and their pass defense was mediocre.  Their run defense is excellent and they are very effective in the red zone (when they actually get there).  As with earlier Shanahan teams, he will establish the run.  Can McNabb get more out of this group of receivers?  On defense, the Redskins will be looking to put pressure on Tony Romo and shut the run down.  This could force Romo into difficult passing situations.   Despite the much publicized Haynesworthgate, I expect the Redskins to step forward this year.

Sagarin Ratings project Dallas 24.43 and Washington 16.78.  Given a 3.07 point home advantage, Dallas is a 4.58 point favorite.

I simulated the game using stats from 2009.  My football model predicts Dallas 25.79 to Washington 23.05 for 48.84 total points.  This isn’t adjusted for any home advantage.  The key variance drivers are Washington’s pass offense and Dallas’ pass defense.  This validates that if Washington steps forward with McNabb, it could spell trouble for Dallas. I also adjusted for home/away stats.  With the home/away adjustment, the model predicts Dallas 24.93 over Washington 23.99 for 48.92 total points.  Reviewing these results, it was clear that Dallas’ run production dropped in road games and Romo became dependant on the pass.  The big unknown will be, how effective can the Dallas pass game be with pressure on Romo and a less effective run game?

This is a big game for both teams.  Who should we pick?  With the new faces and public Haynesworth spectacle, I think it is more important for Washington.  Dallas isn’t great on the road.  McNabb is a proven quarterback who has been successful with mediocre receivers. Washington can stop the run.  Dallas’ secondary is suspect.  Bet on the Washington Redskins +3.5. Follow me on twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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