Bet of the Day – New York Jets at New England Patriots, Jan. 16, 2011

New York Jets (+10) at New England Patriots (-10), Over/Under 45

No bet of the day yesterday.  Never short on commentary, the Jets continued to talk leading up to this game.  They won in Indianapolis last week holding the Colts well below their average yards and points scored.  As we all know, the Patriots embarrassed the Jets when they met in Foxboro earlier this season.  The Patriots had last week off and haven’t said much this week.  They haven’t lost since November 7th and the Jets were their only other loss this season.

New York (12-5) will need a huge defensive performance today in Foxboro.  The Jets average 5.3 yards per play (YPP) and 15.5 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 5 YPP and 15.5 YPPT.  The Jets have an above average offense and an excellent defense.  They are 3rd in yards allowed and 6th in points allowed.  QB Mark Sanchez averages 6.49 yards per attempt (YPA) with 17 TDs and 13 INTs for a 75.3 QB rating.  Sanchez played well in the 2nd half last week.  He has to limit interceptions today.  The Jets can move the ball on offense.  New England is effective at limiting TDs and points converted.  The Jets must score touchdowns and not field goals to cover and win today.

New England (14-2) has the best offense in the NFL.  They average 6.1 YPP and 11.2 YPPT on offense.  On defense, the Patriots allow 5.7 YPP and 18.7 YPPT.  New England’s efficiency numbers read more like a good college team.  They average 5 points more per game than the next closest team.  The Patriots do allow a high number of yards per game on defense.  They force 2.4 turnovers per game while only allowing 0.6.  QB Tom Brady has had a likely MVP season.  He averages 7.93 YPA with 36 TDs and 4 INTs for a 111.0 QB rating.  Brady and the Patriots will move the ball and score points.  They are 8-0 at home and will be ready for today’s game.

The Sagarin Ratings have New England 34.11 and New York 27.08.  With the home advantage of 2.07, the fair line is New England -9.10.  According to pregame.com, 66% of spread bets are on New England and 77% of total bets are on the Over.

My NFL model predicts New England 30.15 over New York 23.47 for 53.62 total points.  New England is clearly the better offense.  They have similar offensive yards, but New England is more efficient.  The Jets allow fewer yards and points on defense.  The key variance contributor is the Jets defensive passing yards allowed.  The Jets have to hold the Patriots below their average passing yards to cover the spread.

Today I am taking the Jets plus the points.  Here’s why.  The Jets were destroyed and embarrassed by the Patriots in November.  The Jets have an excellent defense and their offense has proven they can move the ball against the Patriots.  I modeled the game at New England -6.68.  I expect the Patriots to win, but not cover.  Bet on the New York Jets +10.

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Bet of the Day – New York Jets at New England Patriots, Dec. 6, 2010

New York Jets (+3.5) at New England Patriots (-3.5), Over/Under 44.5

Yesterday’s bet, Steelers at Ravens, was a loser.  Big game in the AFC East tonight.  In the early season meeting, New York won 28-14 and held the Patriots well below their offensive average.  The Patriots are an excellent home team (5-0).  A win for the Patriots would give them clear control in the conference.  The Jets are undefeated on the road (5-0) but haven’t faced a top team in any of those 5 games.

The Jets (9-2) have won 4 straight games.  They average 5.4 yards per play (YPP) and 15.0 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 4.9 YPP and 17.5 YPPT.  They are very efficient on defense.  QB Mark Sanchez averages 6.79 yards per attempt (YPA) with 16 TDs and 8 INTs for an 81.9 QB rating.  Sanchez needs to be at his best and limit turnovers for a chance in New England tonight.

The Patriots (9-2) have won 3 straight games; including wins at Pittsburgh and over Indianapolis.  Like New York, they have had a few extra days to prepare for this game.  They average 5.9 YPP and 11.5 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 6.0 YPP and 16.5 YPPT.  Very efficient on offense and decent on defense.  QB Tom Brady averages 7.69 YPA with 23 TDs and 4 INTs for a 105.8 QB rating.  Belichick and Brady at home with extra practice days (and in a key division game) will make New England very tough tonight.

The Sagarin Ratings have New York 26.93 and New England 27.69.  With the 1.68 home advantage, the fair line is New england -2.44.

My NFL model predicts Patriots 29.5 over Jets 28.6 for 58.1 total points.  The teams have similar mean offensive yardage but New England is much more efficient at converting points.  The Jets give up fewer yards and are more efficient on defense.  The key variance contributor is the passing defense for both teams.  Whichever team can better slow down the passing game (relative to their average) should win the game.

Tonight I am taking the Patriots minus the points.  Here’s why.  This is a key division game on Monday night and the Patriots are an excellent home team.  It’s hard to beat Belichick once, it is much harder to beat him twice.  Mark Sanchez is turnover prone; the Patriots don’t make many mistakes.  Bet on the New England Patriots -3.5.

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Bet of the Day – Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots, Nov. 21, 2010

Indianapolis Colts (+4) at New England Patriots (-4), Over/Under 49.5

Yesterday’s bet, Nebraska at Texas A&M, was a loser.  As mentioned before, I am leaving on vacation and today’s post is my last until December 3rd.  Back to the NFL for the big Colts at Patriots game.

The Colts (6-3) have been banged up for a few weeks now.  They beat the Bengals at home last week but did little on offense while Cincinnati had 5 turnovers.  The Colts average 5.6 yard per play (YPP) and 14.2 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.7 YPP and 16.7 YPPT.  QB Peyton Manning averages 6.90 yards per attempt (YPA) with 16 TDs and 4 INTs for a 93.9 QB rating.  Decent efficiency for the NFL.  The Colts will pass the ball but the Patriots are tough at home.

The Patriots (7-2) picked up a nice win at Pittsburgh last week.  But New England has lost 4 of their last 5 against the Colts.  The Patriots average 5.7 YPP and 11.8 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 6.0 YPP and 16.4 YPPT.  QB Tom Brady averages 7.16 YPA with 17 TDs and 4 INTs for a 98.8 QB rating.  The Patriots haven’t had much luck lately against the Colt, but they seem to be in a better spot today.

The Sagarin Ratings have New England 27.49 and Indianapolis 23.93.  With the 2.82 point home advantage, the fair line is New England -6.38.

My NFL model predicts New England 32.3 over Indianapolis 30.4 for 62.6 total points.  The Colts gain more offensive yards but New England is more efficient at converting points.  The Patriots give up more passing yards and are less efficient on defense.  The key variance contributors are both teams passing defense.  The Patriots face a big challenge in the Colts offense and will need to beat their mean yards allowed to win the game.

Today, I am teasing the Patriots and the Over.  Here’s why.  The Patriots are very good at home.  The Colts have a pile of injuries.  Both teams can score points and have questionable defenses.  Bet a 7-point teaser with the Patriots +3 and the Colts/Patriots Over 42.5.

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Bet of the Day – New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers, Nov. 14, 2010

New England Patriots (+5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5), Over/Under 45

Yesterday’s bet was a loser.  Won the Auburn leg of the teaser but lost the 2nd leg.  Big game in Pittsburgh tonight featuring two of the top AFC teams.  The Patriots got beat by a mediocre Cleveland team last week.  The Steelers won a divisional game in Cincinnati.

New England (6-2) gave up 34 points last week at Cleveland.  Easily the low point of their season but it was a clear “trap” game.  New England is better than that game indicates.  The Pats average 5.5 yards per play (YPP) and 11.8 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.9 YPP and 16.4 YPPT.  QB Tom Brady averages 7.00 yards per attempt (YPA) with 14 TDs and 4 INTs for a 95.7 QB rating.  The Patriots haven’t been as effective on offense since Randy Moss’ release.  But they still have several weapons; expect a better game tonight from the Patriots.  It doesn’t help the Patriots case that their kicker is now on injured reserve.

The Steelers (6-2) finally return home after 3 straight road games.  Pittsburgh averages 5.6 YPP and 13.8 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.0 YPP and 19.4 YPPT.  Their defense still hasn’t given up 100 yards rushing this year.  QB Ben Roethlisberger averages 8.41 YPA with 6 TDs and 3 INTs for a 96.8 QB rating.  Roethlisberger is in his 5th game back and has been okay.  Pittsburgh is the better team.  This is a tough schedule spot (i.e. three road games , a short week off a divisional game).  Will we see some deflation with the Steelers this week?

The Sagarin Ratings have Pittsburgh 29.22 and New England 25.28.  With the 2.88 home advantage, the fair line is Pittsburgh -6.82.  According to pregame.com, 67% of spread bets are on the Patriots but the line has moved from Steelers -4 to -5.

My NFL model predicts Pittsburgh 27.5 over New England 24.1 for 51.6 total points.  New England averages more offensive yardage and is more efficient.  Pittsburgh is clearly better on defense.  The key variance contributors are both teams passing defense.  The team that allows fewer passing yards relative to their mean, will cover the point spread.

Today I am teasing New England and the Over.  Here’s why.  This is a tough schedule spot for the Steelers.  New England hit a low point last week following their own tough schedule stretch.  New England can score without relying on the rushing game.  I think there is value in both New England and the Over.  Bet a 7-point teaser New England +12 with Patriots/Steelers Over 38.

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Bet of the Day – New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers, Oct. 24, 2010

New England Patriots (+2) at San Diego Chargers (-2), Over/Under 49

Yesterday’s bet, LSU at Auburn, was a loser.  Newsflash, Cam Newton appears legit (here comes the hype!).  Vikings and Packers is probably the bigger game but I have covered both teams recently and we don’t need any more Favre talk.  So today we are looking at my local team, the San Diego Chargers.  The Chargers are hosting the New England Patriots.  The Patriots are now 4-1 and on the heels of the Jets for their division.  The Chargers are 2-4 and need a win desperately.

The Patriots’ offense is strong; the defense is not.  They have played a tough schedule.  Now they travel all the way across the country after a big AFC win and 2 conference games.  The Patriots offense is averaging 5.8 yards per play (YPP) and 11.5 yards per point scored (YPPT).  On defense, they are allowing 5.9 YPP and 16.5 YPPT.  That is pretty efficient.  QB Tom Brady continues to roll.  Brady is averaging 7.25 yards per attempt (YPA) with 10 TDs and 4 INTs for a 98.5 QB rating.  Brady has a ton of weapons.  The Patriot secondary is a weak spot and the Chargers will be looking to expose it.  The Patriots are coming off a big win against a bruising team following a bye and now traveling west; will there be some deflation?

All is normal in San Diego.  Tons of off-season hype and then they flop at the start.  They have turned it around in recent years.  A win today would be a big step in that direction.  They have tons of offense and a good defense, but they have allowed too many special teams mistakes and turnovers.  On offense, the Chargers average 6.8 YPP and 16.8 YPPT.  On defense, they allow 4.6 YPP and 12.1 YPPT.  Notice the difference in YPP and YPPT.  Their YPPT is skewed by their 5 TDs allowed by special teams and opponents defense.  QB Phillip Rivers is averaging 9.13 YPA with 12 TDs and 5 INTs for a 100.7 QB rating.  Rivers has been good but has some injury concerns with his receiving corps.  The Chargers have the weapons but have to limit mistakes or it will be a long day.

The Sagarin Ratings have New England 27.4 and San Diego 19.77.  With the 2.59 point home advantage, the fair line is New England -5.o4.

My NFL model predicts San Diego 34.1 over New England 26.8 for 60.9 total points.  The Chargers generate more offensive yardage but the Patriots more efficiently convert points.  The Chargers allow much fewer yards on defense.  The Charger special teams woes have skewed their defensive efficiency and points allowed.  The key variance contributors are the Patriots offensive yardage and the Charger defensive pass yards allowed.  What does this mean?  The Patriots need to meet or beat their normal offensive production against a good defense to win.  The Chargers pass defense has to limit the Patriot passing yards.

Today, I am taking the Chargers.  Here’s why.  The Chargers are at a public low and better team than people realize.  They move the ball down the field and have a strong defense.  The Patriots are coming off a big win following a bye week and the Ravens always leave their mark on teams the following week.  This is a long road trip for New England and the Chargers are much better at home.  The Patriot defense is vulnerable to Rivers and the potent Charger offense.  My model shows that if both teams perform to their statistical average, San Diego should win.  Bet on the San Diego Chargers -2.

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Bet of the Day – New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, Oct. 4, 2010

New England Patriots (pk) at Miami Dolphins (pk), Over/Under 47.5

Yesterday’s bet, Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles, was a winner.  That’s 3 in a row and 5-1-1 last week.  Tonight’s Patriot at Dolphins game is important.  Tied in the AFC East, both teams need a win tonight (on Monday Night Football) to stay close to the Jets (the Jets beat them both).  Expect a big effort from both teams.  Defense will be key.

The New England Patriots enter tonight 2-1 and are coming of an okay win versus Buffalo.  As expected, the Patriots are a high-production offense with spotty defense.  They are averaging 6.2 yards per play (YPP) and 12.4 yards per point scored (YPPT) while allowing 6 YPP and 13.9 YPPT on defense (not efficient).  The Patriots are the 3rd most efficient offense in the league.   QB Tom Brady is averaging 7.74 yards per attempt (YPA) for 8 TDs and 2 INTs with a 109.1 QB rating.  The defense is the concern and it isn’t improving.  Can the Patriots handle Brandon Marshall and the Miami’s Wildcat formation?

The Miami Dolphins also enter tonight 2-1 off a tough home Sunday night loss to the Jets.  They will pull out all the stops to keep from losing two prime-time home games.  The Dolphins are averaging 5.3 YPP and 18.4 YPPT on offense while allowing 5.3 YPP and 18.3 YPPT on defense.  They aren’t efficient on offense but are very efficient on defense.  They are the bizzaro-Patriots.  QB Chad Henne is averaging 7.09 YPA for 3 TDs and 1 INT with an 88.1 QB Rating.  Not great, but he was sacked too much.  Henne’s offensive line needs to improve tonight but the Dolphins will move the ball tonight.  Can they slow down the Patriot offensive machine?

The Sagarin Ratings have New England at 23.73 and Miami at 21.96.  With the 3.16 home advantage, the fair line is Miami -1.39.  This is very close to the current point spread indicating there is not heavy value on either side.

My football model predicts Miami 30.6 over New England 24.4 for 55 total points.  Both teams have similar run production and run defense.  The differences come in the passing game.   New England is a better passing team but a weaker pass defense; the Dolphins don’t throw the ball as well but defend it better than the Patriots.  The key model variances are New England’s pass offense and pass defense.  This means New England must meet or beat their average passing production and keep the Dolphin passing game in check to win the game.

Tonight, I am taking the Miami Dolphins.  Here’s why.  Miami will be highly motivated for Monday Night Football at home (and they do not want to lose two home games in a row).  Miami’s offense is improving (Only team to score 20+ on the Jets).  Miami will move the ball on the ground eating up clock and keeping Brady off the field.  The Patriots don’t have an answer for Brandon Marshall.  The Patriots can’t stop the pass and haven’t proven they can stop a running game like Miami’s.  Last, Miami’s pass defense is better than the last two years.  Bet on the Miami Dolphins pk.

If you have any questions or comments, please leave below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

St. Louis Rams at New England Patriots – August 26, 2010 7:30

Despite a previous tweet, I contracted football fever and can no longer refrain from posting an NFL pick.  Since my first post last Monday, I lasted a total of 11 days.  My first football pick this year is the Rams and Patriots game.

The Rams didn’t look too hot in their opening game but ground out a win in their 2nd.  Between the 2 games, they totaled 322 yards on offense while allowing 699 yards. With AJ Feeley out with “game-keepers” thumb, the Rams will need rookie Sam Bradford to dramatically improve from his 6/14 24 yd performance.  Only averaging 2.6 yards per play with a .48% completion rate, it is hard to be optimistic about the Rams tonight.

The Patriots are a much different story.  They have been sharp in the first two games, out scoring opponents 56 to 34.  The Patriots are averaging 5.1 yards per play while holding opponents to 4.6.  The Patriots are +3 in turnovers and both Tom Brady and back up Brian Hoyer are playing well.

Based on my football simulations, the project score is New England 29.2 to St. Louis 18.7 for an over/under total of 47.9 points.  This is driven by New England’s offensive efficiency and both teams limited ability to stop the run.

I expect the Rams to improve tonight and the Patriots to continue to be offensively effective.  Today’s bet is on the total.  Take the St. Louis Rams/New England Patriots over 38 points.  Good Luck!

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