Bet of the Day – New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts, Sept. 19, 2010

New York Giants (+4) at Indianapolis Colts (-4), Over/Under 48.5

Yesterday’s bet of the day, Iowa Hawkeyes at Arizona Wildcats, was a winner.  Today’s bet is on the Manning bowl; NY Giants at Indianapolis Colts.  Both teams suffered a big injury in their first week; Bob Sanders for the Colts is out indefinitely, while Kevin Boss suffered a concussion and won’t be ready for the game.  The Colts will be looking to stop the bleeding while the Giants need this early win for position in their division.

The Giants performance in Week 1 went somewhat unnoticed by the public.  It was a solid, convincing win over the Panthers.  In week 1, the Giants averaged 5.7 yards per point (YPP) and 12.1 yards per point (YPPT) on offense while allowing 4.0 YPP and 13.2 YPPT.  This is noticeably more efficient on both offense and defense than 2009.  Eli Manning was decent but not spectacular; he threw for 263 yards with 3 TDs and 3 INTs.  Manning only threw 14 INTs in all of 2009.  The Giants will need to use their offensive size and physicality to establish the run and exploit the weakened Colts secondary.  The Giants defense will have their hands full tonight.  The Colts will be aggressive on offense and Peyton Manning will be looking to jump out ahead early.

The Colts’ pass offense was effective in week 1 (419 yards, 7.4 YPA) but they had no answer for the Texans running game.  The Colts averaged 6.9 YPP but an inefficient 19.3 YPPT on offense while allowing 6.0 YPP and 10.4 YPPT on defense.  It is only one game, but this was much less efficient than the Colts of 2009.  Peyton Manning will be looking to right the ship in week 2.  Manning threw for 433 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs in week 1.  Manning will get his yards and points.  Can the Colts stop the Giant’s run game and tall receivers?  Losing Bob Sanders is a problem, but he has only played in 8 games over the last 2 seasons.  Stopping the Giant run game is the bigger concern.  To win, the Colts have to limit long, grinding drives by the Giants.  Expect the Colts to put pressure on Eli Manning and look to force turnovers.

The Sagarin Ratings for the Giants is 24.99 and the Colts 22.54.  With a home advantage of 3.16, the Colts are a slight 0.71 point favorite.  The point spread is Colts -4, so betting value is with the Giants.

My football model simulated the game Colts 29.42 over Giants 26.15 for 55.57 total points.  It is clear on paper, both teams will be able to move the ball.  Both teams have a suspect run defense.  The critical variance contributors are both teams passing offenses.  Which ever team can effectively move the ball through the air, is the winner.

I am going with the Colts.  Here is why.  The Colts will be aggressive and Peyton will use his weapons. The Colts need this win and now return home.  Both teams have suspect run defenses, but the Colts have something to prove.  The Giants are penalty and turnover prone, the Colts will exploit these opportunities.  Bet the Indianapolis Colts (-4).  Follow me on Twitter for all of my picks.  Good Luck!

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