Bet of the Day – Missouri Tigers at Texas Longhorns, Jan. 29, 2011

Missouri Tigers (+7) at Texas Longhorns (-7), Over/Under 146

Missouri is coming off two convincing home wins. This is their biggest challenge of the season so far. Texas has rolled through the Big 12 conference. They beat Kansas on the road last Saturday. Can they slow down the high scoring Tigers tonight?

Missouri (17-3) is the highest-scoring team in the Big 12. They haven’t been great in their conference road games, but should have no problem getting up for this game. The Tigers average 47.5% shooting with 38 rebounds and 10 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 40.9% shooting with 37 rebounds and 6 steals per game. Missouri is a deep team that can score at all positions. The Tigers have only scored under 70 points once this year. They face their biggest defensive test to date in Austin tonight.

Texas (17-3) won a much hyped game in Lawrence last week. They are undefeated in the conference; winning by an average of 19.6 points in conference games. The Longhorns average 46.1% shooting with 41 rebounds and 6 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 36.7% shooting with 34 rebounds and 5 steals per game. Texas rebounds very well and plays excellent defense. They will need to play a complete game to slow down a dangerous Missouri team.

The Sagarin Ratings have Texas 91.60 and Missouri 86.73. With the 3.92 home advantage, the fair line is Texas -8.79.

My basketball model has Texas 79.07 and Missouri 71.98 for 151.05 total points. Missouri is a better and more efficient offensive team. Texas is a better defensive team. The key variance contributor is Missouri’s defensive shooting percentage allowed. Missouri has to slow Texas’ solid offense to win and cover.

I don’t see enough value in either side of the point spread. So tonight I am taking the Over. Here’s why. Both teams have very good offenses. Texas has a good defense but has given up big points to similar caliber offenses. Missouri has proven they can score on good teams. I modeled the game at 151.05 total points. Bet Missouri/Texas Over 146.

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