Bet of the Day – Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, Dec. 9, 2010

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Tennessee Titans (+3), Over/Under 45

Yesterday’s bet, Heat at Jazz, was a loser.  Tonight is the first of two meetings between the Colts and Titans.  Both teams are at a season low; Tennessee has lost 5 straight and Indianapolis has lost 3.

The Colts (6-6) are still missing several key pieces.  Tonight is a must win.  They average 5.7 yards per play (YPP) and 14.5 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.6 YPP and 14.2 YPPT.  The Colts aren’t very efficient on defense; they give up too many rushing yards.  Peyton Manning hasn’t been very good in recent weeks.  He averages 6.95 yards per attempt (YPA) with 24 TDs and 15 INTs for a 89.4 QB rating.  The Colts defense is suspect.  But expect a big effort from Manning and the Colts tonight.

The Titans (5-7) have little hope for a playoff spot.  They need to win out and get some help.  To do that they have to beat the Colts twice.  Tennessee averages 5.4 YPP and 13.3 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.3 YPP and 18.5 YPPT.  Kerry Collins will likely get the start.  Collins averages 5.81 YPA for 5 TDs and 5 INTs with a 68.8 QB rating.  The Titans can’t stop the run.  Lucky for them, the Colts can’t run the ball.

The Sagarin Ratings have the Colts 21.85 and the Titans 19.72.  With the 1.85 home advantage, the fair line is Indianapolis -0.28.

My NFL model has Indianapolis 28 and Tennessee 25.3 for 53.3 total points.  Indianapolis moves ball better but Tennessee is more efficient at converting points.  Tennessee is also more efficient on defense, but the Colts allow fewer yards.  The key variance contributors are each team’s passing yards allowed.  The Titans will need to hold the Colts well below their passing yardage average to win the game.

Tonight I am taking the Colts -3.  Here’s why.  Indianapolis hasn’t been great lately but they have played a tough recent schedule.  They continue to score points and their games have been close.  4 of Tennessee’s 5 straight losses were by more than a touchdown against mediocre opponents.  Peyton Manning will bounce back.  Tennessee is vulnerable to both the run and pass.  Tonight is a must win for the Colts.  Bet the Indianapolis Colts -3.

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Bet of the Day – Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots, Nov. 21, 2010

Indianapolis Colts (+4) at New England Patriots (-4), Over/Under 49.5

Yesterday’s bet, Nebraska at Texas A&M, was a loser.  As mentioned before, I am leaving on vacation and today’s post is my last until December 3rd.  Back to the NFL for the big Colts at Patriots game.

The Colts (6-3) have been banged up for a few weeks now.  They beat the Bengals at home last week but did little on offense while Cincinnati had 5 turnovers.  The Colts average 5.6 yard per play (YPP) and 14.2 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.7 YPP and 16.7 YPPT.  QB Peyton Manning averages 6.90 yards per attempt (YPA) with 16 TDs and 4 INTs for a 93.9 QB rating.  Decent efficiency for the NFL.  The Colts will pass the ball but the Patriots are tough at home.

The Patriots (7-2) picked up a nice win at Pittsburgh last week.  But New England has lost 4 of their last 5 against the Colts.  The Patriots average 5.7 YPP and 11.8 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 6.0 YPP and 16.4 YPPT.  QB Tom Brady averages 7.16 YPA with 17 TDs and 4 INTs for a 98.8 QB rating.  The Patriots haven’t had much luck lately against the Colt, but they seem to be in a better spot today.

The Sagarin Ratings have New England 27.49 and Indianapolis 23.93.  With the 2.82 point home advantage, the fair line is New England -6.38.

My NFL model predicts New England 32.3 over Indianapolis 30.4 for 62.6 total points.  The Colts gain more offensive yards but New England is more efficient at converting points.  The Patriots give up more passing yards and are less efficient on defense.  The key variance contributors are both teams passing defense.  The Patriots face a big challenge in the Colts offense and will need to beat their mean yards allowed to win the game.

Today, I am teasing the Patriots and the Over.  Here’s why.  The Patriots are very good at home.  The Colts have a pile of injuries.  Both teams can score points and have questionable defenses.  Bet a 7-point teaser with the Patriots +3 and the Colts/Patriots Over 42.5.

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Bet of the Day – Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, Nov. 1, 2010

Houston Texans (+5) at Indianapolis Colts (-5), Over/Under 51

Didn’t post a bet of the day yesterday.  Didn’t have an opinion on any of the big games.  Back to business today with the Monday Night Football game.  Both teams are coming off a bye week for a key divisional matchup.  The Texans beat the Colts in the season opener.  The Colts did throw for over 400 yards and out gain the Texans in that game.  The winner of tonight’s game will take the lead in the division.

The Texans are coming off a bye and a decent home win over the Chiefs.  The Texans average 6.4 yards per play (YPP) and 14.9 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On Defense, they allow 6.4 YPP and 14.7 YPPT.  Okay on Offense, but not great on defense.  QB Matt Schaub is averaging 7.81 yards per attempt (YPA) with 9 TDs and 5 INTs for a 93.0 QB rating.  The Texans are a decent team.  They ran the ball very well against the Colts last time out.  They surprised teams early in the season.  It will be hard to surprise the Colts tonight.

The Colts are 4-2 with both losses coming on the road.  Tonight is only their 3rd home game.  The Colts have question marks and injuries but will be around when playoff time comes.  On offense, the Colts average 6.0 YPP and 15.1 YPPT.  On defense, they allow 5.7 YPP and 16.5 YPPT.  Good on defense, but you would expect more efficiency from the Colts on offense.  QB Peyton Manning averages 7.54 YPA for 13 TDs and 2 INTs for a 103.4 QB rating.  The Colts are banged up; Manning will be without several of his key weapons.  Also, note the Colts will be without their normal punter Pat McAfee.  The Colts will be looking to send a message to a division rivalry.

The Sagarin Ratings have the Colts 25.08 and Texans 20.95.  With the 2.35 home advantage, the fair line is Colts -6.48.  According to pregame.com, 64% of bets are on the Colts but the line has moved from -6 to -5.  It seems sharp money is on the Texans.

My NFL model predicts Colts 34.8 over Texans 26.3 for 61.1 total points.  The Colts gain more yards but are slightly less efficient at converting points.  Both teams give up too many yards on defense; the Colts are more efficient on defense.  The Texans pass defense is the overwhelming variance contributor.  They allow 306 passing yards per game.  They need to be well below their mean defensive passing yards allowed to win tonight (based on scoring efficiency, every 25 passing yards allowed translates to 1.5 points).

Tonight I am taking the Colts and the Over in a teaser.  Here’s why.  The Colts are a better team.  This is a Monday Night divisional game at home; a must win.  The Colts have had an extra week to prepare for the Texans’ offense; it will show with Manning and the defense.  Despite some of his usual weapons missing, Manning still has plenty of talent around him.  The Texans give up too many passing yards and are one of the worst defenses in the league.  Both teams are excellent at converting points in the red zone.  Bet a 7-point teaser on the Indianapolis Colts +2 with Texans/Colts Over 44.

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Bet of the Day – Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins, October 17, 2010

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Washington Redskins (+3), Over/Under 44

Yesterday’s bet, Ohio State at Wisconsin, was a loser.  Today’s game is the Sunday night game.  Both teams are coming off wins but have injury and defense concerns.

The Colts (3-2) are third in their division and have a bye next week.  They aren’t as good as they were last year but still have a very potent offense.  They Colts are averaging 5.8 yards per play (YPP) and 14.6 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they are allowing 5.8 YPP and 17.1 YPPT.  They have shown the ability to keep teams out of the end zone and force field goals.  QB Peyton Manning is averaging 7.45 yards per attempt (YPA) for 11 TDs and 2 INTs with a 102.6 QB rating.  RB Joseph Addai is probable today but will likely see limited action.  The Colts’ will need to establish some sort of run today to win the game.

The Redskins (3-2) have won 2 straight big games over the Eagles and Packers.  Are they in an upset spot today?  They are averaging 6.0 YPP and 18.9 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they are averaging 5.9 YPP and 22.3 YPPT.  They give up too many yards but do a good job of limiting scoring.  QB Donovan McNabb is averaging 7.74 YPA for 4 TDs and 3 INTs with an 81.9 QB rating.  The Redskins are without RB Clinton Portis today.  They will need more offensive production to stay with the Colts.

The Sagarin Ratings have Indianapolis at 26.08 and Washington at 18.92.  With the 2.88 point home advantage, the fair betting line is the Colts -4.28.  According to pregame.com, 82% of bets are the Colts but the line has gone from -4 to -3.  Are the Sharp bettors on the Redskins?

My NFL model predicts Colts 34.0 over Redskins 19.6 for 53.6 total points.  On paper, both teams give up too many yards on defense and pass the ball well.  The Colts pass the ball better and more efficiently convert points.  The key variance contributors in the model are Washington’s scoring efficiency and passing game.  They have to pass the ball above their average and convert points to win today.

Today, I am going against what feels like a sharp play and the home underdog.  I am taking the Colts.  Here’s why.  The Redskins have had two big wins in a row and are in a deflation spot.  The Colts move the ball in the air.  The Redskins’ pass defense is questionable.  The Colts had a big let down game 2 weeks ago and ground out a win last week.  I expect a step forward today.  Bet on the Indianapolis Colts -3.

Feel free to ask questions or comment below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts, Sept. 19, 2010

New York Giants (+4) at Indianapolis Colts (-4), Over/Under 48.5

Yesterday’s bet of the day, Iowa Hawkeyes at Arizona Wildcats, was a winner.  Today’s bet is on the Manning bowl; NY Giants at Indianapolis Colts.  Both teams suffered a big injury in their first week; Bob Sanders for the Colts is out indefinitely, while Kevin Boss suffered a concussion and won’t be ready for the game.  The Colts will be looking to stop the bleeding while the Giants need this early win for position in their division.

The Giants performance in Week 1 went somewhat unnoticed by the public.  It was a solid, convincing win over the Panthers.  In week 1, the Giants averaged 5.7 yards per point (YPP) and 12.1 yards per point (YPPT) on offense while allowing 4.0 YPP and 13.2 YPPT.  This is noticeably more efficient on both offense and defense than 2009.  Eli Manning was decent but not spectacular; he threw for 263 yards with 3 TDs and 3 INTs.  Manning only threw 14 INTs in all of 2009.  The Giants will need to use their offensive size and physicality to establish the run and exploit the weakened Colts secondary.  The Giants defense will have their hands full tonight.  The Colts will be aggressive on offense and Peyton Manning will be looking to jump out ahead early.

The Colts’ pass offense was effective in week 1 (419 yards, 7.4 YPA) but they had no answer for the Texans running game.  The Colts averaged 6.9 YPP but an inefficient 19.3 YPPT on offense while allowing 6.0 YPP and 10.4 YPPT on defense.  It is only one game, but this was much less efficient than the Colts of 2009.  Peyton Manning will be looking to right the ship in week 2.  Manning threw for 433 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs in week 1.  Manning will get his yards and points.  Can the Colts stop the Giant’s run game and tall receivers?  Losing Bob Sanders is a problem, but he has only played in 8 games over the last 2 seasons.  Stopping the Giant run game is the bigger concern.  To win, the Colts have to limit long, grinding drives by the Giants.  Expect the Colts to put pressure on Eli Manning and look to force turnovers.

The Sagarin Ratings for the Giants is 24.99 and the Colts 22.54.  With a home advantage of 3.16, the Colts are a slight 0.71 point favorite.  The point spread is Colts -4, so betting value is with the Giants.

My football model simulated the game Colts 29.42 over Giants 26.15 for 55.57 total points.  It is clear on paper, both teams will be able to move the ball.  Both teams have a suspect run defense.  The critical variance contributors are both teams passing offenses.  Which ever team can effectively move the ball through the air, is the winner.

I am going with the Colts.  Here is why.  The Colts will be aggressive and Peyton will use his weapons. The Colts need this win and now return home.  Both teams have suspect run defenses, but the Colts have something to prove.  The Giants are penalty and turnover prone, the Colts will exploit these opportunities.  Bet the Indianapolis Colts (-4).  Follow me on Twitter for all of my picks.  Good Luck!

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