Milwaukee Bucks (+5) at Memphis Grizzlies (-5), O/U 183.5 – February 11, 2011

Haven’t had a bet of the day in the last few days. Today, I am looking at the Bucks at Grizzlies game. The Bucks haven’t been very good of late. They are 1-5 in their last 6 games; only playing 1 team above .500 in that span. Brandon Jennings has been back for 7 games and is starting to get back in a groove. Memphis is 6-2 in their last 8 games and they are coming off a road win over Oklahoma City. Rudy Gay missed the last game but is probable for tonight.

Milwaukee (20-31, 8-20 away) is playing their 3rd game in 4 days and have another game tomorrow. They have been a bit sluggish of late. They beat Memphis at home 4-straight times. The Bucks average 42.5% shooting with 50 rebounds and 7 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 44.8% shooting with 50 rebounds and 6 steals per game. Milwaukee isn’t a good shooting team. They are a decent defensive squad. Milwaukee doesn’t have much momentum; they will need a big game to win and cover tonight.

Memphis (28-26, 16-8 home) has played very well of late. They sitĀ a few games out of the playoffs; if they can continue playing well they could make the cut. The Grizzlies average 46.2% shooting with 50 rebounds and 9 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 45.5% shooting with 50 rebounds and 7 steals per game. Memphis is a good shooting but mediocre defensive team. Memphis is the better team (currently). Continuing to play at their current level, will make the Grizzlies tough to beat at home.

The Sagarin Ratings have Milwaukee 88.33 and Memphis 91.15. With the 3.36 home advantage, the fair line is Memphis -6.18.

My NBA model has Memphis 93.5 over Milwaukee 87.13 for 180.63 total points (you can get all of today’s model resultsĀ HERE). Memphis is a better shooting and more efficient team on offense. Milwaukee is a better defensive team. The key variance contributor is Memphis’ offensive shooting percentage. The Grizzlies must shoot at or above their average to win and cover tonight.

Tonight I am taking the home team minus the points. Here’s why. Milwaukee has no momentum and are playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Grizzlies have had a few days rest and are coming off a solid win. I modeled the game at Memphis -6.37 and the Sagarin line is -6.18. Based on my line the value is with Memphis. Bet the Memphis Grizzlies -5.

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Bet of the Day – Orlando Magic at Memphis Grizzlies, Jan. 31, 2011

Orlando Magic (-2) at Memphis Grizzlies (+2), Over/Under 196

Orlando has been up and down lately. They haven’t covered in their last two games. The Magic sit 2.5 games behind Miami in the Southeast division. Memphis has won two straight games and 7 of their last 10. They are now .500 for the season. The Magic beat Memphis in Orlando by 17 in mid-November.

The Magic (31-17) haven’t been a great road team. Their last win over a .500 or better team was January 8th in Dallas (Nowitzki was out). Orlando averages 46.5% shooting with 52 rebounds and 6 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 44.1% shooting with 49 rebounds and 7 steals per game. Orlando has won the last two meetings in convincing fashion. They will need a big effort from a banged-up squad to win on the road tonight.

Memphis (24-24) is 3-0 since O.J. Mayo was suspended. They are 14-7 at home. The Grizzlies average 46.2% shooting with 50 rebounds and 9 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 45.7% shooting with 50 rebounds and 7 steals per game. Memphis has played a tougher schedule than Orlando but their recent home competition has been weak. They are 13-7 against the spread at home. Can the Grizzlies keep their positive momentum moving against a top team?

The Sagarin Ratings have Orlando 94.17 and Memphis 90.79. With the 3.61 home advantage, the fair line is Memphis -0.23.

My NBA model has Memphis 97.45 and Orlando 96.02. The teams are similar on offense in shooting and efficiency. Orlando is a better 3-point shooting team. Orlando is a slightly better defensive team. The key variance contributor is the Grizzlies’ shooting percentage. Memphis has to shoot at or above their average to win tonight.

Tonight I am taking the home team plus the points. Here’s why. Memphis is playing better and shoots 1.9% better on average at home. Orlando isn’t a great home team; they also have some lingering injuries. I modeled the game at Memphis -1.43. Bet Memphis Grizzlies +2.

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