NFL Simulations – Week 6 2012

14 games on the NFL schedule. 6 system plays: CIN/CLE Over 43.5, Lions +4, BUF/ARI Over 43, 49ers -6.5, NYG/SF Over 45.5, and Broncos +1.5. NFL system plays are 3-2-0 season to date.

CLICK HERE for today’s NFL simulations.

Follow me on Twitter for all my simulations. Good Luck!

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Bet of the Day – New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings, Dec. 12, 2010

New York Giants (-4) vs. Minnesota (+4), Over/Under 44

Yesterday’s bet, Eagles at Cowboys, was a winner.  I don’t have a strong opinion on the Baltimore and Houston game tonight.  So I am going to pass on that game and go with the rescheduled Giants and Vikings game.  First, the Giants flight was redirected to Kansas City on Saturday due to snow.  Second, the Metrodome roof collapsed early Sunday morning.  Eventually the Giants vs. Vikings game was moved to Detroit.

The Giants (8-4) are coming off a solid divisional win over the Redskins.  They are in the thick of the playoff race; tonight is  a needed win.  The Giants average 6.0 yards per play (YPP) and 15.0 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.1 YPP and 14.1 YPPT.  Not very efficient.  This is primarily driven by their turnovers.  In 7 of their 12 games they have turned the ball over 3 or more times.  QB Eli Manning averages 7.44 yards per attempt (YPA) with 23 TDs and 17 INTs for an 88.6 QB rating.  Manning will likely have to rely on the pass against the stout Vikings’ defensive front.  Hard to tell how the delay and redirection will impact the Giants, but not playing on Minnesota’s home field has to help.

The Vikings (5-7) have won 2 straight against mediocre competition.  Brett Favre is a game-time decision.  Moving the game to Detroit eliminates the home advantage for the Vikings but the 1-day delay does give Favre more time to recover.  The Vikings average 5.6 YPP and 17.9 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.2 YPP and 14.3 YPPT.  Like the Giants, they turn the ball over too much.  Whether Favre plays or not, you have to expect a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson tonight.  The Vikings are pretty much out of the playoffs, so one has to wonder how motivated they are for this game.

The Sagarin Ratings have New York 22.59 and Minnesota 18.83.  This indicates the fair line is New York -3.76.  This is very close to the current line.

My NFL model predicts the Giants 23.1 over the Vikings 17.1 for 40.2 total points.  The Giants gain more yards on offense and are more efficient at converting points.  The teams have nearly identical defensive statistics.  Minnesota has played a tougher schedule.  The overwhelming  variance contributor is Minnesota’s defensive passing yards allowed.  Minnesota has to limit Manning and the Giants’ passing yardage to win and/or cover the spread.

Tonight I am taking the under.  Here’s why.  Favre is still questionable and the Vikings will continue to become more reliant on the running game.  Both teams have good defenses (they are 1 and 2 in yards allowed per game in the NFC).  I modeled the game at 40.2 total points and at 44, there is value in the under.  Bet on the Giants/Vikings Under 44.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

World Series Simulation Results

Yesterday’s bet, NY Giants at Dallas Cowboys, was a loser.  4 losses in a row.  Not good.  Have gone 6-2 the last two days on Twitter, so there is hope.  But I am in a mathematical slump (log 0.05/log (1 – Win%)).  Isn’t the first, won’t be the last, but I will come out of it and will have similar winning streaks.

Not going with the normal bet of the day.  Today, I am going to detail my simulation results of the World Series and make my series bet.  Currently, the series price is Texas -145 and San Francisco +125.  I must say upfront, my better half is from the bay area and has already warned me about picking anything but a Giants World Series win.  I simulated all 7 games.  I made some slight adjustments to both teams to account for the designated hitter.  Here are the exact model results:

Game 1 – Rangers (Lee) 3.5 over Giants (Lincecum) 3.2, 6.7 total runs   Rangers lead 1-0
Game 2 – Giants (Cain) 3.8 over Rangers (Wilson) 2.9 for 6.7 total runs   Series tied 1-1
Game 3 – Rangers (Lewis) 5.2 over Giants (Sanchez) 3.7 for 8.9 total runs   Rangers lead  2-1
Game 4 – Rangers (Hunter) 4.6 over Giants (Bumgarner) 3.9 for 8.4 total runs   Rangers lead 3-1
Game 5 – Rangers (Lee) 4.6 over Giants (Lincecum) 3.0 for 7.6 total runs   Rangers win 4-1
Game 6 – Giants (Cain) 3.8 over Rangers (Wilson) 2.9 for 6.7 total runs
Game 7 – Giants (Sanchez) 3.6 over Rangers (Lewis) 3.4 for 6.9 total runs

 

The model predicts Texas will win 59% of the time.  Against a -145 line, there is some positive value betting on the Rangers.  This assumes you want to bet purely on model results.

I am going to take a slightly different strategy.  If Lincecum pitches at his best, he can beat Lee.  Add in the Rangers traveling to a very tough park for hitters and they lose their DH.  The Giants have shown some toughness.  I also think the Giants have a more complete pitching staff.  Games 3 and 4 have less reliable pitching (by both teams) in a hitter friendly park and one swing of the bat could change the series.  Bet on the San Francisco Giants +125.  Wait until close to first pitch tomorrow before (if) you pull the trigger on this bet.  If the Giants win tomorrow, I am going to check for a flip in the series price.  For example, I am going to bet the Giants +125 series bet tomorrow before first pitch.  If they win Game 1, and the series price flips to Rangers +120, I may bet the Rangers +120 and lock in a guaranteed profit.  Also note, the series line is better than the game line tomorrow for the Giants; it’s sitting at +105 to +115 most places.  With that said, the series price may never flip and I am not counting on it.  I think the Giants are a good team with very tough pitching.  I will update this post as the prices change and if I see an opportunity to lock in a profit.

Update – 10/28/10 1:00 PM Pacific

If you want to buy Rangers side of the series now it is currently at +125.  As mentioned previously, if you buy the Rangers for the same amount you previously put on the Giants, you will have a +0.25 risk-free profit.

Will be posting NFL Week 8 Simulations tonight.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys, Oct. 25, 2010

New York Giants (+3.5) at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5), Over/Under 45

Yesterday’s bet, New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers, was a loser.  3 losses in a row.  I am ice-cold these days.  Let’s turn it around tonight.  The Giants might be good team; they are now 4-2.  The Cowboys are 1-4 (I’m sure Dallas radio has been fun).

The Giants have won 3 straight.  During that stretch they have held all 3 teams under 100 yards rushing.  On offense, the Giants are averaging 5.9 yards per play (YPP) and 16.8 yards per point scored (YPPT).  On defense, they allow 4.6 YPP and 13.5 YPPT.  They are doing well on YPP but not too efficient on YPPT.  QB Eli Manning is averaging 7.25 yards per attempt (YPA) with 10 TDs and 8 INTs for a 86.2 QB rating.  Not convinced they are as good as their record; 0-2 against quality teams, but they are on the improve.  The Giants will need a big game in big D to beat a desperate team.

Dallas is in trouble.  1-4 and hosting a Monday Night Football divisional game.  Doesn’t get bigger than that.  The Cowboys average 6.1 YPP and 19.6 YPPT on offense.  They are allowing 5.5 YPP and 12.7 YPPT on defense.  QB Tony Romo is averaging 7.60 YPA with 10 TDs and 7 INTs for a 93.6 QB rating.  Dallas has to limit turnovers and convert points.  The Giants have stopped the run and forced turnovers of late; can Dallas turn the tide.

The Sagarin Ratings have New York 22.99 and Dallas 19.51.  With the 2.59 point home advantage, the fair line is New York -0.89.

My NFL model predicts Dallas 23.0 over New York 22.3 for 45.3 total points.  Both teams should have similar offensive yardage.  The Giants score more efficiently.  Defensively they are nearly identical; Dallas gives up a few more yards.  The key variance in the model is both teams offensive passing yards.  Whichever team can more effectively pass the ball (relative to their mean) should win the game.

I don’t have much faith in either team.  Tonight I am taking a slightly different approach to betting the game.  I am going to do a 2-side teaser with the Giants and the Under.  Here’s why.  The Giants are the better overall team.  It’s a Monday night divisional game; the Giants will come to play.  Dallas makes mistakes and the Giants force turnovers.  According to pregame.com, 84% of total bets are on the over but the total hasn’t really moved.  My model predicts a close game around 45 total points.  Bet a 7-point teaser with the New York Giants +10.5 and the New York Giants/Dallas Cowboys Under 52.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, Oct. 21, 2010

Philadelphia Phillies (-120) at San Francisco Giants (+110), Over/Under 5.5

No bet of the day yesterday.  2-2 on Twitter bets.  The Giants won in dramatic fashion last night.  They now lead the series 3-1.  Did anyone have a Giants vs. Rangers series bet?  Both teams send their staff aces back to the mound; Doc vs. the Kid, part II.  In their first meeting Halladay and Lincecum both gave up 2 home runs.  Combined they only gave up 42 hrs during their 66 regular season games (462.3 innings).  One has to believe we won’t see the same level of offensive production in this game.  The Giants know how to win games 2-1.  Do the Phillies?  It will be fun.

The Phillies are in a must win spot.  Their bats haven’t been great, but they have faced pretty tough pitching.  In 2010, the Phillies batted .258 with a .326 OBP for 4.7 runs per game.  They allowed a .303 OBP for 3.9 runs per game.  Harry Leroy Halladay (22-11, 1.012 WHIP) takes the mound tonight.  Halladay doesn’t give up walks and manages the game very well.  Halladay will need to go deep into the game; the Phillies don’t want to expose their bullpen.  The Phillies will have their work cut out for them, but they certainly have the horses to turn the series around.

The Giants now have 3 chances to win the NLCS.  Strong pitching and timely hitting have carried them to a 6-2 playoff record.  In 2010, the Giants batted .255 with a .316 OBP for 4.2 runs per game.  They allowed a .307 OBP for 3.6 runs per game.  Starting pitcher Tim Lincecum (18-10, 1.235 WHIP) has been impressive in his 2 postseason starts.  His “blister problem” hasn’t seemed to bother him.  Lincecum does give up walks and will need to keep runners off the bases.  Can the Giants finish this series off at home?  They will be tough.

My baseball model predicts Phillies 4.0 over Giants 3.4 for 7.4 total runs.  The Phillies are a better offensive team; they get on base and score more efficiently.  The Giants have a better bullpen.  The key variance contributors are Lincecum’s walks and hits allowed and the Phillies ability to convert base runners to runs.  Lincecum will need to beat his regular season WHIP for the Giants to win.  The Phillies can’t waste opportunities.

Difficult game to call tonight.  The Phillies are in a must win situation; the Giants are a home underdog with their ace on the mound.  If we were in the regular season, I would take the home dog.  But tonight I am taking the Philadelphia Phillies.  Here’s why.  It’s do or die for the Phillies.  Halladay will keep runners off the bases.  My model gives the edge to the Phillies and there is betting value.  Bet on the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line -120.

Feel free to comment or ask a question below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com. Follow me on Twitter for all my picks. Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, Oct. 19, 2010

Philadelphia Phillies (-115) at San Francisco Giants (+105), Over/Under 6.5

Yesterday’s bet, Texas Rangers at New York Yankees, was a winner.  Like last night, we have a 1-1 series with good pitching.  Phillies’ ace Roy Halladay lost Game 1 at home.  Roy #2, Roy Oswalt pitched great and regained the momentum in Game 2.  This is a key swing game in the series; a must win for the Giants.

As the regular season came to an end, the Phillies quickly became the odds-on favorite to win the World Series.  An easy cruise past the Reds only expanded this public opinion.  On the road, the Phillies have batted .256 with a .326 OBP for 4.7 runs per game scored.  They have allowed a .313 OBP for 4.0 runs per game.  Starting Pitcher Cole Hamels (13-11, 1.153 WHIP) is much improved this year.  Hamels comes off a 9 inning 5 hit shutout over the Reds.  Hamels is a proven commodity in the playoffs.  Hamels should be be good tonight but will the Phillies be able to score on Cain?

The Giants surprised everyone (maybe even themselves) with a Game 1 win in Philadelphia over Roy Halladay.  The Phillies regained their swagger in Game 2.  The Giants will need a big effort tonight to regain the momentum.  At home, the Giants batted .264 with a .324 OBP for4.2 runs per game.  They allowed a .298 OBP for 3.4 runs per game.  Starting Pitcher Matt Cain (13-11, 1.091 WHIP) had a good start against the Braves in the division series.  He was shaky near the end of the season in key games; there is at least a small question in how he will do under pressure.  He has very limited playoff experience.  Cain pitches better at home and it will be easier to settle into the game.

My baseball model predicts Giants 3.7 over Phillies 3.5 for 7.2 total runs.  The Phillies get on base and convert runs more efficiently.  Cain may have a slight edge in starting pitching but the Giants have a clear advantage in the bullpen.  The key variance contributors are the Giants scoring efficiency and the walks and hits allowed by the Giants starting pitching.  The Giants have to advance runners when on base or the Giant pitchers have to limit base runners for a chance to win.

For the 2nd day in a row, I am taking a road favorite.  Here’s why.  The Phillies lost with their ace and bounced back to take the momentum.  Hamels is proven in the playoffs; Cain is not.  The Phillies have a more complete offense; the Giants have had several home runs of late and can’t keep up the offensive production over the long run.  Bet on the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line -115.

Feel free to comment or ask questions below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants

Atlanta Braves (+105) at San Francisco Giants (-115), Over/Under 6.5

We had two bets yesterday on the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Kansas State Wildcats game.  We won the Over and the first leg of our teaser (Detriot Lions +4 is our 2nd leg).  Back to the diamond today for game 2 of the Braves and Giants series.  Last night, Lincecum pitched beautifully and a “possible” umpire error allowed the only and winning run to score for the Giants.  Tonight we get another great pitching match-up and hopefully an exciting game.

The Braves come into this game after squeaking into the playoffs followed by a tough opening loss.  Tonight’s game is a must win.  The Braves haven’t been a great road team in 2010.  On the road they hit .245 with a .325 OBP and .711 OPS for 4.2 runs per game.  They held opponents to a .321 OBP and .724 OPS for 4.1 runs per game but are now 35-47 on the road.  Starting pitcher Tommy Hanson (10-11, 1.174 WHIP) has pitched well but hasn’t had a decision in his last 3 starts.  Hanson is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in his last two starts against the Giants (note: both of those game were in Atlanta).  The Braves will need to buck their road losing trend and beat a good pitcher to win tonight.

The Giants’ win last night was how we expect them to win.  Strong pitching and grinding out a run or two.  The Giants are a good home team.  At home, they batted .257 with a .325 OBP and .745 OPS for 4.2 runs per game.  The Giants allowed a .298 OBP and .651 OPS for 3.3 runs per game.  Starting pitcher Matt Cain (13-11, 1.084 WHIP) got roughed up by San Diego last week (part of the ongoing San Diego in San Francisco curse according my better-half).  That was Cain’s first loss decision in nearly 6 weeks.  Cain gave up 3 runs in 5 innings in Atlanta in his only start against the Braves this year.  Cain will bounce back tonight and the Giants will be tough again at home.

Using home and away data, my baseball model predicts San Francisco 4.02 over Atlanta 2.99 for 7.01 total runs.  The teams get on base at about the same rate; the Giants hit slightly better at home and the Braves draw more walks.  The Giants score more efficiently (no surprise the Braves have had problems all year advancing runners) and their starting and relief pitchers allow fewer runners on base.  The major variance contributors are the Giants scoring efficiency and walks/hits allowed by Tommy Hanson.  What does this mean?  If the Giants play to their mean scoring efficiency, they probably win.  If they are a deviation below their average, it will be a very close game.  Similarly, Hanson has to have a huge performance for Atlanta to win tonight.

Tonight I am taking the home team.  Here’s why.  Atlanta isn’t a good road team and they have had trouble hitting in key spots all year.  The Giants are a good home team; their pitching has been phenomenal at home.  Cain should make a better appearance tonight.  My model predicts the Giants will win 75% of the time in this specific matchup.  Against a -115 line, there is positive betting value with the Giants.  Bet on the San Francisco Giants on the money line for -115.

Feel free to comment or ask a question below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck

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