Consolation Bet of the Day – Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins, Sept 3, 2010

Atlanta Braves (-120) at Florida Marlins (+110), Over/Under 9.5, 7:10 ET

With the White Sox at Red Sox game postponed, we need a consolation [abbreviated] bet of the day.  We will switch gears to the Atlanta Braves (78-56) at Florida Marlins (67-65).  The Braves are coming off their 1st loss in 6 games.  They batted .302 with a .362 OBP for 6.3 runs per game over the last 7 games.  Kenshin Kawakami (1-9, 1.441 WHIP) returns to the mound for the first time since June 26th.  Kawakami replaces Derek Lowe (sore elbow) for today’s game.  He has been ineffective for most of the year and could be more of a liability than asset today.

The Marlins are coming off a day’s rest and possibly a needed cooling off period.  They were 4-3 in their last 7 with an .333 OBP for 6.7 runs per game.  Andrew Miller (0-0, 1.60 WHIP in 10 innings pitched this year) is also filling in for a starter today (Ricky Nolasco).  Miller has also struggled but was decent in his only start (1 earned run, 3 hits in 5 innings pitched). With today’s pitching crap shoot, a decent start from Miller could go a long way for Florida.

My game simulation projects a close game, Florida 4.46 to Atlanta 4.14 for 8.60 total runs.  The model variance is driven by Florida’s ability to score runs with limited men on base and Kawakami’s high walks and hits allowed.

For today’s consolation Bet of the Day, I am taking the Marlins.  Here’s why.  The Marlins are a home underdog coming off two wins facing a mediocre pitcher.  They also are efficient scorers and have been hitting decent of late.  Bet on the Florida Marlins on the Money Line +110.  Tomorrow’s game will be college football so send your suggestion for Bet of the Day.  Follow me on twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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