Bet of the Day – Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks, Jan. 25, 2011

Los Angeles Clippers (+6) at Dallas Mavericks (-6), Over/Under 194

Hello. No bet of the day yesterday. Back to the NBA today. The Clippers ave played better in recent weeks. Blake Griffin continues to improve. The Mavericks are coming out of a rough patch. Dirk Nowitzki is back and they are starting a 4-game home stand.

The Clippers (17-26) have won 7 of their last 9 games. Including wins over the Lakers and Heat. They aren’t a very good road team (3-13). Los Angeles averages 45.9% shooting with 54 rebounds and 7 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 45.4% shooting with 48 rebounds and 8 steals per game. The Clippers are mediocre shooting team. They rebound well but haven’t played very good defense on the road. The Clippers will need a big effort from Griffin and their defense if they want to beat a Dallas team that needs a win.

Dallas (28-15) went on a 6-game slide while Nowitzki was out. They won 2 of their last 3 but haven’t been consistent. The Mavericks average 46.3% shooting with 48 rebounds and 7 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 44.6% shooting with 49 rebounds and 7 steals per game. Dallas is a pretty good home team (15-8). They need a win tonight and will look to jump on the Clippers early.

The Sagarin Ratings have Dallas 93.63 and Los Angeles 87.37. With the 3.57 home advantage, the fair line is Dallas -9.83.

My NBA model predicts Dallas 99.7 over Los Angeles 91.4 for 191.1 total points. Dallas is the better shooting and more efficient offensive team. Dallas is a slightly better defensive team. The key variance contributor is Dallas’ offensive shooting percentage. Dallas has to shoot at or above their average to win and cover tonight. Dallas hasn’t been consistent lately but the Clippers aren’t very good defensively in road games.

Tonight I am taking the Mavericks minus the points. Here’s why. Dallas is coming out of a bad streak and needs a win tonight.  The Clippers are at the end of a hot streak. Dallas shoots the ball better and plays decent defense at home. I modeled the game at Dallas -8.3.  Bet Dallas Mavericks -6.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks. Good Luck!

Advertisements

Bet of the Day – San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks, Dec. 30, 2010

San Antonio Spurs (-3) at Dallas Mavericks (+3), Over/Under 191.5

Yesterday’s bet, Warriors at Hawks, was a winner.  Both Dallas and San Antonio have rolled through their schedule.  Unfortunately for Dallas, that will be tough to continue while Dirk Nowitzki is out of the lineup.  Nowitzki injured his knee in Monday’s game at Oklahoma City and will not play tonight.

The Spurs (27-4) only lost 2 games in December.  Tim Duncan is playing only 26 minutes a game.  His minutes and his stats are down.  Will this pay dividends in the playoffs?  San Antonio averages 47.2% shooting with 50 rebounds and 9 steals per game on offense.  On defense, they allow 45.8% shooting with 50 rebounds and 7 steals per game.  San Antonio is healthy and playing well.  They lost by 9 at home to Dallas in November.  Expecting a good outing from the Spurs.

Like San Antonio, the Mavericks (24-6) only lost twice in December.  It will be tough to avoid a 3rd loss with Nowitzki out.  But don’t expect Dallas to rollover at home tonight.  The Mavs average 47.7% shooting with 48 rebounds and 7 steals per game on offense.  On defense, they allow 43.5% shooting with 48 rebounds and 7 steals per game.  Dallas is 2.5 games behind the Spurs in the Southwest division.  Dallas won the 1st of 4 games this season in San Antonio.  Nowitzki accounted for 26 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists in that game.  Can that production be replaced tonight in Dallas?  Dallas has won 4 straight regular-season games against the Spurs.

The Sagarin Ratings have San Antonio 97.76 Dallas 96.70.  With the 3.21 home advantage, the fair line is Dallas -2.15.  This doesn’t take into account Dirk Nowitzki not playing tonight.

My NBA model predicts San Antonio 93.33 over Dallas 88.68 for 182.01 total points.  Nowitzki’s absence is considered in the model results.  San Antonio is the better shooting and more efficient offensive team.  San Antonio is also a better defensive team.  The key variance contributor is San Antonio’s offensive shooting efficiency.  The Spurs must shoot at or above their average to win tonight.

Tonight I am taking the Spurs minus the points.  Here’s why.  Dallas won in San Antonio by 9 in the 1st meeting of the season.  The Spurs are a top team and will want to even the series with a key divisional opponent.  Nowitzki is out; this leaves a big hole to fill for Dallas.  I modeled the game at San Antonio -4.65.  Bet the San Antonio Spurs -3.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder, Dec. 27, 2010

Dallas Mavericks (+1.5) at Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5), Over/Under 202.5

No bet of the day yesterday.  Saturday’s bet was a winner.  I don’t have a lean on Monday Night Football.  So back to the NBA.  Dallas beat the Thunder by 8 points in Oklahoma City on November 24th.  Dallas is 16-1 since November 20th; one of the hottest teams in the league.  The Thunder are playing well too; they were 9-4 in December and enter this game off a nice win over Denver.

Dallas (23-5) will be without coach Rick Carlisle tonight.  They average 47.8% shooting with 49 rebounds and 7 steals per game on offense.  On defense, they allow 43.4% shooting with 48 rebounds and 7 steals per game.  Dallas has won 7 straight road games (including wins over Miami, Orlando, and San Antonio).  The are coming off a 5 day break; will they stay hot or are the due for some regression?

Oklahoma City (21-10) is a good home team.  They were 5-1 at home in December but didn’t play the toughest teams in those games.  They average 45.2% shooting with 50 rebounds and 9 steals per game on offense.  On defense, they allow 46.7% shooting with 50 rebounds and 7 steals per game.  The Thunder aren’t a great shooting team but they make free throws and control the ball.  Oklahoma will be motivated for a big game tonight.

The Sagarin Ratings have Dallas 97.19 and Oklahoma City 93.26.  With the 3.22 home advantage, the fair line is Dallas -0.71.  According to pregame.com, 81% of spread bets are on Dallas and 70% of total bets are on the Over.  The total line has moved from 204.5 to 202.5.  Sharp money on the Under?

My NBA model predicts Dallas 99.54 over Oklahoma City 97.28 for 196.82 total points.  Dallas is a better shooting team.  Oklahoma makes more free throws.  Dallas is more efficient on defense.  The key variance contributor is Oklahoma City’s offensive and defensive shooting percentage.  Oklahoma City must limit the Mavs shooting efficiency to win and cover tonight.

Tonight I am taking the Under.  Here’s why.  Dallas is coming of a 5 day break.  The Thunder are revenging an 8-point home loss.  I modeled the game at 196.82 total points and the line has moved from 204.5 to 202.5.  Bet Dallas/Oklahoma City Under 202.5.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat, Dec. 20, 2010

Dallas Mavericks (+7) at Miami Heat (-7), Over/Under 192

Yesterday’s bet, Saints at Ravens, was a loser.  Back to the NBA today for the Mavs at Heat. The Mavs beat the Heat by 11 points in their late November game.  The Heat will be tough to beat a 2nd time and at home.

Dallas (21-5) is coming off a nice home stand; winning 5 of 6.  They have been excellent on the road (8-1).  Tonight they face a much improved Heat team since their previous meeting.  The Mavs average 47.9% shooting with 49 rebounds and 7 steals per game on offense.  On defense, they allow 43.5% shooting with 48 rebounds and 7 steals.

Miami (21-8) have won 12 straight games (last loss was the Mavs game).  There are still concerns with the supporting cast.  Mike Miller could return this week, but don’t expect much from him until their current win streak ends.  The Heat average 47.6% shooting with 51 rebounds and 7 steals on offense.  On defense, they allow 42.4% shooting with 49 rebounds and 6 steals.  This is a key home game for Miami, expect their best tonight.

In Dallas’ 6 game home stand, they only played one team above .500.  They won that game by 6 pts.  During Miami’s current 12 game winning streak, they have played 4 teams above .500.  The Heat won those games by an average of 14.75 points.

The Sagarin Ratings have Dallas 96.55 and Miami 96.13.  With the 3.23 home advantage, the fair line is Miami -2.81.  According to pregame.com, 60% of spread bets are on Dallas and 86% of total bets are on the Over.  While the majority of bets are on Dallas, the point spread has moved from Miami -6 to Miami -7.

My NBA model predicts Miami 95.40 over Dallas 88.65 for 184.05 total points.  The teams have nearly identical offensive statistics.  Miami has an advantage in rebounding and they play better defense.  The key variance contributor is Dallas’ field goal shooting percentage.  Dallas has to shoot at or above their average to win and cover tonight.

Tonight I am taking Miami.  Here’s why.  Miami lost by 11 last time against the Mavs; they are a better team now and will look to make a statement.  This is a key game between two road trips for Miami.  Dallas is coming of a solid home stand and starts the first of 3 tough road games.  Bet on the Miami Heat -7.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Chicago Bulls at Dallas Mavericks, Nov. 19, 2010

Chicago Bulls (+5) at Dallas Mavericks (-5), Over/Under 195

Yesterday’s bet, Bears at Dolphins, was a loser.  Back to the NBA tonight for what should be a fun game.  Will release a pick on the Boise St. game on Twitter.

The Bulls (6-4) are in their 3rd game of a long road trip.  They have won 4 of their last 5 games.  They are coming off 2 days rest for tonight’s game.  The Bulls average 47.7% shooting with 53 rebounds and 8 steals.  They allow 44.6% shooting with 49 rebounds and 9 steals.  The Bulls are a solid team.  They played a tough early schedule but have bounced back nicely without Carlos Boozer.  In their last game, they played a bit flat but are poised for a solid effort tonight.

Like the Bulls, the Mavericks (7-3) are coming off a flat loss after 4 straight wins.  Dallas doesn’t foul very much or turn the ball over; they will need similar clean play to win tonight.  The Mavs average 48.8% shooting with 49 rebounds and 7 steals per game.  They allow 42.9% shooting with 48 rebounds and 9 steals per game.  Dallas was out rebounded in 3 of their last 5 games.  Tonight they faced a good rebounding team.  Expecting a good effort from Dallas but a tough game.

The Sagarin Ratings have Dallas 95.97 and Chicago 92.86.  With the 1.76 home advantage, the fair line is Dallas -4.87.  According to pregame.com, 58% of spread bets are on Dallas and 94% of total bets are on the over.  The spread seems fair but all the money is on the over and it isn’t moving.  Are there sharps on the under?

My NBA model predicts Dallas 96.9 over Chicago 94.1 for 191 total points.  They have very similar offensive statistics.  Dallas shoots slightly better while Chicago is a better rebounding team.  The defenses are similar too.  The key variance contributor is both teams offensive shooting percentage.  Chicago will need to shoot at or above their average to win tonight.

Tonight I am taking the Under.  Here’s why.  I don’t see any value in the spread.  Both teams play good defense (for the NBA that is).  These teams will play cleaner tonight than their last outing and we won’t see too many free throws.  I modeled this game at 191; there appears to be value in the total line.  Bet Chicago/Dallas Under 195.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

%d bloggers like this: