NFL Simulations – Week 10 2012

14 games on the NFL schedule. 7 system plays: NYG/CIN Over 48.5, ATL/NO Over 53.5, TB -3, NYJ +6, DAL -1.5, HOU +1, and KC/PIT Under 42. NFL system plays are 12-11-0 season to date.

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NFL Simulations – Week 9 2012

14 games on the NFL schedule. 2 system plays: Chiefs/Chargers Under 42.5 and Vikings +5. NFL system plays are 12-9-0 season to date.

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NFL Simulations – Week 8 2012

14 games on the NFL schedule. 6 system plays: Vikings -6, Chargers -2.5, Falcons +2.5, Rams +7, Broncos -6, 49ers/Cardinals Under 37.5. NFL system plays are 9-6-0 season to date.

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Bet of the Day – San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers, Dec. 16, 2010

San Francisco 49ers (+9.5) at San Diego Chargers (-9.5), Over/Under 45

Yesterday’s bet, Bucks at Spurs, was a loser.  Big game for the 49ers and Chargers tonight.  Both teams are one game back in their respective divisions with two divisional games left after tonight.  The Chargers are a decent home team; the 49ers are not a good road team.  These teams haven’t played in recent years but expect a fun game in San Diego.

San Francisco (5-8) won comfortably last week at home against Seattle.  A short week on the road following a divisional game is tough.  The 49ers average 5.5 yards per play (YPP) and 17.0 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.4 YPP and 15.2 YPPT.  Not good on offense, but they are a fairly efficient defensive team.  QB Alex Smith averages 6.73 yards per attempt (YPA) with 12 TDs and 9 INTs for an 80.6 QB rating.  Smith returned last week from a shoulder injury to play well.  Smith will need an excellent performance against a good Charger defense to win/cover tonight.

As usual, the Chargers (7-6), have turned their season around from a bad start.  They have 3 games left against sub .500 teams remaining.  They could finish 10-6.  San Diego averages 6.5 YPP and 14.7 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 4.7 YPP and 13.6 YPPT.    Turnovers and sloppy mistakes (e.g. at Seattle, 5 turnovers, 11 penalties for 83 yards, and they gave up 2 special team TDs) make the offensive and defensive YPPT worse than they should be.  QB Phillip Rivers average 8.81 YPA for 26 TDs and 11 INTs for a 103.1 QB rating.  Rivers faces a good defense tonight, but that hasn’t slowed him down before.  Expect a big effort from the Chargers tonight.

The Sagarin Ratings have San Diego 21.93 and San Francisco 15.06.  With the 2.18 home advantage, the fair line is San Diego -9.05.

My NFL Model predicts San Diego 27.2 over San Francisco 14.1 for 41.3 total points.  San Diego is clearly a better and more efficient offense.  San Diego gives up fewer yards and is also more efficient on defense.  There is one driving variance contributor: San Francisco’s pass defense.  If they cannot slow down Rivers and keep their passing production close to their defensive average, the game won’t be close.

Tonight I am taking the under.  Here’s why.  San Diego is clearly a better team but 9.5 points is more than I want to eat.  Both teams have a solid defense.  Antonio Gates is doubtful for tonight.  Both teams are coming off divisional games and a short week; there could be some deflation tonight.  I modeled game at 41.3 points and there seems to be value in the under.  Bet on the 49ers/Chargers Under 45.

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Bet of the Day – New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers, Oct. 24, 2010

New England Patriots (+2) at San Diego Chargers (-2), Over/Under 49

Yesterday’s bet, LSU at Auburn, was a loser.  Newsflash, Cam Newton appears legit (here comes the hype!).  Vikings and Packers is probably the bigger game but I have covered both teams recently and we don’t need any more Favre talk.  So today we are looking at my local team, the San Diego Chargers.  The Chargers are hosting the New England Patriots.  The Patriots are now 4-1 and on the heels of the Jets for their division.  The Chargers are 2-4 and need a win desperately.

The Patriots’ offense is strong; the defense is not.  They have played a tough schedule.  Now they travel all the way across the country after a big AFC win and 2 conference games.  The Patriots offense is averaging 5.8 yards per play (YPP) and 11.5 yards per point scored (YPPT).  On defense, they are allowing 5.9 YPP and 16.5 YPPT.  That is pretty efficient.  QB Tom Brady continues to roll.  Brady is averaging 7.25 yards per attempt (YPA) with 10 TDs and 4 INTs for a 98.5 QB rating.  Brady has a ton of weapons.  The Patriot secondary is a weak spot and the Chargers will be looking to expose it.  The Patriots are coming off a big win against a bruising team following a bye and now traveling west; will there be some deflation?

All is normal in San Diego.  Tons of off-season hype and then they flop at the start.  They have turned it around in recent years.  A win today would be a big step in that direction.  They have tons of offense and a good defense, but they have allowed too many special teams mistakes and turnovers.  On offense, the Chargers average 6.8 YPP and 16.8 YPPT.  On defense, they allow 4.6 YPP and 12.1 YPPT.  Notice the difference in YPP and YPPT.  Their YPPT is skewed by their 5 TDs allowed by special teams and opponents defense.  QB Phillip Rivers is averaging 9.13 YPA with 12 TDs and 5 INTs for a 100.7 QB rating.  Rivers has been good but has some injury concerns with his receiving corps.  The Chargers have the weapons but have to limit mistakes or it will be a long day.

The Sagarin Ratings have New England 27.4 and San Diego 19.77.  With the 2.59 point home advantage, the fair line is New England -5.o4.

My NFL model predicts San Diego 34.1 over New England 26.8 for 60.9 total points.  The Chargers generate more offensive yardage but the Patriots more efficiently convert points.  The Chargers allow much fewer yards on defense.  The Charger special teams woes have skewed their defensive efficiency and points allowed.  The key variance contributors are the Patriots offensive yardage and the Charger defensive pass yards allowed.  What does this mean?  The Patriots need to meet or beat their normal offensive production against a good defense to win.  The Chargers pass defense has to limit the Patriot passing yards.

Today, I am taking the Chargers.  Here’s why.  The Chargers are at a public low and better team than people realize.  They move the ball down the field and have a strong defense.  The Patriots are coming off a big win following a bye week and the Ravens always leave their mark on teams the following week.  This is a long road trip for New England and the Chargers are much better at home.  The Patriot defense is vulnerable to Rivers and the potent Charger offense.  My model shows that if both teams perform to their statistical average, San Diego should win.  Bet on the San Diego Chargers -2.

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