Milwaukee Bucks (+5) at Memphis Grizzlies (-5), O/U 183.5 – February 11, 2011

Haven’t had a bet of the day in the last few days. Today, I am looking at the Bucks at Grizzlies game. The Bucks haven’t been very good of late. They are 1-5 in their last 6 games; only playing 1 team above .500 in that span. Brandon Jennings has been back for 7 games and is starting to get back in a groove. Memphis is 6-2 in their last 8 games and they are coming off a road win over Oklahoma City. Rudy Gay missed the last game but is probable for tonight.

Milwaukee (20-31, 8-20 away) is playing their 3rd game in 4 days and have another game tomorrow. They have been a bit sluggish of late. They beat Memphis at home 4-straight times. The Bucks average 42.5% shooting with 50 rebounds and 7 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 44.8% shooting with 50 rebounds and 6 steals per game. Milwaukee isn’t a good shooting team. They are a decent defensive squad. Milwaukee doesn’t have much momentum; they will need a big game to win and cover tonight.

Memphis (28-26, 16-8 home) has played very well of late. They sit a few games out of the playoffs; if they can continue playing well they could make the cut. The Grizzlies average 46.2% shooting with 50 rebounds and 9 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 45.5% shooting with 50 rebounds and 7 steals per game. Memphis is a good shooting but mediocre defensive team. Memphis is the better team (currently). Continuing to play at their current level, will make the Grizzlies tough to beat at home.

The Sagarin Ratings have Milwaukee 88.33 and Memphis 91.15. With the 3.36 home advantage, the fair line is Memphis -6.18.

My NBA model has Memphis 93.5 over Milwaukee 87.13 for 180.63 total points (you can get all of today’s model results HERE). Memphis is a better shooting and more efficient team on offense. Milwaukee is a better defensive team. The key variance contributor is Memphis’ offensive shooting percentage. The Grizzlies must shoot at or above their average to win and cover tonight.

Tonight I am taking the home team minus the points. Here’s why. Milwaukee has no momentum and are playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Grizzlies have had a few days rest and are coming off a solid win. I modeled the game at Memphis -6.37 and the Sagarin line is -6.18. Based on my line the value is with Memphis. Bet the Memphis Grizzlies -5.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks. Good Luck!

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Bet of the Day – Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs, Dec. 15, 2010

Milwaukee Bucks (-8.5) at San Antonio Spurs (+8.5), Over/Under 190.5

No bet of the day yesterday.  Did go 4-0 on Twitter picks.  Back to the NBA tonight.  The Bucks are improving but have a tough road test against the league-leading Spurs.

The Bucks (10-13) have won 3 straight and are coming of a big win in Dallas.  This is the 2nd game in a brutal 5-game stretch (Dallas, San Antonio, Utah, Portland, Lakers).  The Bucks average 41.0% shooting with 53 rebounds and 7 steals per game on offense.  On defense, they allow 44.6% shooting with 49 rebounds and 6 steals per game.  The Bucks have played a tough early schedule and are better than their record indicates.  But following a big win in Dallas, should we expect a let down tonight?

The Spurs (20-3) have won 5 straight.  They look to complete a perfect 6-0 homestand tonight.  Not only have they played 5 straight at home, they only played 5 games in the last 13 days.  The Spurs average 46.9% shooting with 50 rebounds and 9 steals per game on offense.  On defense, they allow 45.7% shooting with 49 rebounds and 7 steals.  The Spurs are clearly the better team but they face a confident Bucks team looking to continue their recent success.

The Sagarin Ratings have San Antonio 98.39 and Milwaukee 89.28.  With the 3.33 home advantage, the fair line is San Antonio -12.44.

My NBA model predicts Spurs 98.53 over Bucks 89.63 for 188.16 total points.  The Spurs are clearly a better shooting team.  The Bucks hold the rebounding edge.  The teams allow similar defensive shooting and efficiency.  The key variance contributor is San Antonio’s offensive shooting % vs. defensive shooting %.  San Antonio will need to shoot at or above their average shooting percentage to win and cover tonight.

Tonight I am taking the home team.  Here’s why.  The Bucks are coming off a big, emotional win on the road and could regress tonight.  The Spurs continue to dominate and are rested.  I modeled the game at Spurs -8.9 and the Sagarin Ratings indicate there is value with the Spurs.  Bet on the San Antonio Spurs -8.5.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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