NFL Simulations – Week 7 2012

13 games on the NFL schedule. 4 system plays: SEA/SF Under 37.5, Texans -6.5, Vikings -6 and PIT/CIN Over 46. NFL system plays are 6-5-0 season to date.

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NFL Simulations – Week 6 2012

14 games on the NFL schedule. 6 system plays: CIN/CLE Over 43.5, Lions +4, BUF/ARI Over 43, 49ers -6.5, NYG/SF Over 45.5, and Broncos +1.5. NFL system plays are 3-2-0 season to date.

CLICK HERE for today’s NFL simulations.

Follow me on Twitter for all my simulations. Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, Nov. 8, 2010

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (+6), Over/Under 41.5

Yesterday’s bet, Dolphins at Ravens, was a winner.  Today’s bet is on the Monday Night Football game.  The Steelers and Bengals are on opposite ends of the playoff spectrum but expect a competitive game in this divisional rivalry matchup.  The Bengals won both games last year but prior to that Pittsburgh owned Cincinnati.

The Steelers (5-2) are coming off their second straight primetime game and now enter their 3rd straight road game.  Last weekend’s game was closer than the score indicates.  The Steelers average 5.6 yards per play (YPP) and 14.2 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.0 YPP and 20.7 YPPT.  QB Ben Roethlisberger averages 9.20 yards per attempt (YPA) for 5 TDs and 2 INTs with a 103.4 QB rating.  Roethlisberger wasn’t great in his last outing but faces a softer defense tonight.  This is another tough spot for the Steelers, they need a big game to win tonight.

The Bengals (2-5) have lost 4 straight games and have almost no chance of making the playoffs.  The Bengal offense hasn’t been consistent and now they face the best defense in the league.  The Bengals average 5.3 YPP and 17 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.6 YPP and 14.7 YPPT.  QB Carson Palmer averages 6.58 YPA for 12 TDs and 7 INTs with a 83.0 QB rating.  The Bengals are the home underdog on Monday night in a divisional game.  Motivation shouldn’t be a problem.  The Bengals will need to play their best game of the year tonight if they want to win.

The Sagarin Ratings have Pittsburgh 29.28 and Cincinnati 18.36.  With the 2.89 home advantage, the fair line is Pittsburgh -8.  According to pregame.com, 66% of spread bets are on the Steelers and 74% of total bets are on the Over.  The spread has moved from Steelers -3.5 to -6; the total has moved from 42.5 to 41.5.  Despite a majority of bets on the Over, the total line has dropped a point.

My NFL model predicts Pittsburgh 22.3 over Cincinnati 19.6 for 41.9 total points.  The Bengals gain more yardage in the air.  The Steelers are more efficient on both sides of the ball.  Cincinnati gives up twice as many rushing yards as the Steelers.  The key variance contributors are both teams passing defense.  Whichever team can better limit the opposing team’s passing yards will likely win the game.

Difficult line to bet.  I am taking the Under.  Here’s why.  A majority of the bets are on the Over but the line has moved down indicating sharp money is on the Under.  Pittsburgh has an excellent rushing defense and Cincinnati isn’t great running the ball. Cincinnati can’t stop the run; Pittsburgh will grind the ball on the ground.  Bet the Steelers/Bengals Under 41.5. Try to find 42 if you can.

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Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills – August 28, 2010 6:30 ET

Cincinnati (-3) at Buffalo (+3), Over/Under 35

Yesterday’s bet was a flop.  Today’s bet of the day is another NFL preseason game, the Cincinnati Bengals at the Buffalo Bills.  Both teams have improving offenses and can force turnovers.  The Bengals’ (2-1) offense has been flat, high-powered, and sloppy in their 3 preseason games.  They are averaging less than 4 yards per rush and 6 yards per pass (4.24 YPR and 6.57 YPP – 2009 NFL average).  Tonight they will be looking for more consistency moving the football and improved scoring efficiency.

The Buffalo Bills (1-1) improved in their 2nd preseason game with rookie running back C.J. Spiller debuting as a starter.  The Bills have averaged 5.6 yards per rush in their first two games.  The Bills improved in their passing game, including former starter Trent Edwards connecting with Lee Evans for a 70 yard touchdown pass.  Despite a poor showing in the first preseason game, the Bills defense rebounded holding the Colts to less than  300 total yards and forcing 4 turnovers.  I guess there are a few reasons for Bills fans to be optimistic (of course, it is only preseason).

The football simulation projected a slight Buffalo advantage; Bills 22.4 Bengals 20.2 for 42.6 total points.  Cincinnati’s average pass defense and Buffalo’s recently effective running game are primary drivers in the model results.  The Bills are the home underdog and appear to have betting value.  The model also predicts an Over on the total line.

Despite the betting value being with Buffalo and their improved performance, I am concerned with their defensive scoring efficiency (i.e. Cincinnati’s ability to convert points relative to total yards).  Considering their defensive weaknesses and improving offenses, I think today’s bet is on the over/under total.  Bet Cincinnati/Buffalo Over 35.  Follow all my picks on Twitter.  Good Luck!

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