2013 NCAA Tournament – Third Round – UPDATED

Today I am posting the simulations and ratings for all the 2013 NCAA Tournament Third Round games. The first round file is here and the second round file is here.

The results are based on simulations and don’t consider handicapping and situation angles. The purpose is to give a baseline estimation for each game and adjust for handicapping considerations.

CLICK HERE for a summary of the third round games. Note this file includes the Sagarin Rating, Strength of Schedule, my NCAAB simulation, a possession-based estimate I use, the predicted game winner and the current betting line.

I will update this post tomorrow morning with the current lines for Sunday’s games.

Good luck with your brackets and bets. Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.

Update 3/24/13 – CLICK HERE for an update summary of games for Day 2 of the Third Round.

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2013 NCAA Tournament – Second Round

Today I am posting the simulations and ratings for all the 2013 NCAA Tournament Second Round games. The first round file are here.

The results are based on simulations and don’t consider handicapping and situation angles. The purpose is to give a baseline estimation for each game and adjust for handicapping considerations.

CLICK HERE for a summary of the second round games. Note this file includes the Sagarin Rating, Strength of Schedule, my NCAAB simulation, a possession-based estimate I use, the predicted game winner and the current betting line.

Good luck with your brackets and bets. Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.

2013 NCAA Tournament – First Round

I simulated the 2013 NCAA Tournament. The predicted final four was Duke, Pittsburgh, Florida and Indiana. The predicted winner was Indiana over Duke for 136 total points. There are a few key games that will significantly change the predicted outcome. Two key early games are Pittsburgh/Wichita State and UNC/Villanova.

The results are based on simulations and don’t consider handicapping and situation angles. The purpose is to give a baseline estimation for each game and adjust for handicapping considerations.

Today I am posting first round projections. Travelling tomorrow but will try to post all second round games before Thursday’s games start.

CLICK HERE for a summary of the first round games. Note this file includes the Sagarin Rating, Strength of Schedule, my NCAAB simulation, a possession-based estimate I use, the predicted game winner and the current betting line.

Good luck with your brackets and bets. Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.

Betting Notes – December 19, 2012

A few quick thoughts on today’s games.

NBA

The UTA/IND lines are IND -3.5 and O/U 187. 64% of side bets are on IND and 63% of total bets are on the Over. I like the spot for UTA. Indiana played a division game last night on the road and now faces a non-conference team at home. I had the fair line at UTA -1 and O/U 185. Leaning UTA +3.5.

The OKC/ATL lines are OKC -6 and O/U 198.5. 68% of side bets are on OKC and 58% of total bets are on the Over. ATL beat OKC earlier this season by 9 and comes off an overtime win over a division opponent last night. I had the fair lines at OKC -7 and OU 193. Leaning OKC -6 and Under 198.5.

CBB

Just a few leans: Ohio -2 and Texas Tech +8.5.

Follow me on Twitter for all my simulations. Good Luck!

Betting Notes – December 18, 2012

A few quick thoughts on today’s games.

NBA

The ATL/WAS lines are ATL -7 and O/U 188. 81% of side bets are on ATL and 76% of total bets are on the Under. Both teams are coming off bad losses. ATL by 22 and WAS by 30. Both teams play tomorrow night. ATL plays the Thunder. I had the fair line in this game at ATL -4 and O/U 178. Leaning WAS +7 and Under 188.

The IND/MIL lines are MIL -2.5 and O/U 186.5. 54% of side bets are on MIL and 66% of total bets are on the Under. MIL beat IND earlier this season by 14 in Milwaukee. The Bucks are coming off a 26 point loss. Both teams play non-conference teams tomorrow. I had the fair lines at MIL -3.5 and O/U 183. Expecting this game to be close but leaning MIL. Slight lean Under.

Like the spot tonight for CLE but had the fair line at CLE -4. May use CLE in a 2-team teaser. Watching TOR and will be betting against them after the next game they lose or don’t cover.

Other leans: SAN +2.5, NO +7.5.

CBB

Just a few leans: Youngstown St. +6, Richmond/Kansas Over 135.5, Jacksonville St. +8.

2-team teaser with Cleveland Cavaliers and Central Florida.

Follow me on Twitter for all my simulations. Good Luck!

Betting Notes – December 17, 2012

Just a few leans tonight. NBA: DET +7, and SAN/OKC Under 207. CBB: Cal Poly SLO +12, Montana St. +6, and Eastern Wash +6.

2-team teaser: Magic +9.5/Jets +7.

Follow me on Twitter for all my simulations. Good Luck!

Betting Notes – December 15, 2012

A few quick thoughts on today’s games.

NBA

Pretty good schedule tonight in the NBA. The WAS/MIA lines are MIA -14.5 and O/U 196.5. 61% of bets are on MIA and 70% of bets are on the Over. The Wizards beat Miami 11 days ago. Doubtful that happens again. I had the fair line at MIA -16. Hate to lay so many points and anger the garbage-time gods. I do like the Under and had the fair line at 189. Expect a better defensive effort from Miami tonight. Play WAS/MIA Under 196.5.

The only other lean tonight is UTA -2.

No CFB for me today. Possibly some CBB later.

Follow me on Twitter for all my simulations. Good Luck!

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