Update – June 17, 2014

The NBA and NHL are over…..at least we have the World Cup this year. Will have some tennis plays over the summer. No strong opinion on the late World Cup games today. Posted a play on Belgium last week. They just went up 2-1 but the match isn’t over yet. Just a few links and plays below today…..

A Message from DRF CEO on Tax Reform for Horseplayers

World Cup Notes Day 6 – FiveThirtyEight

Manziel’s Contract

Bettor’s favoring the Mariner’s tonight

Duncan to retire or return?

Plays

MLB
White Sox +110
Tigers -150
Blue Jays +160
SF/CHW Over 8.5
SDP/SEA Under 7.5
 
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UPDATE – June 11, 2014

After many months off, I am going to start posting regularly again. Not planning to post simulations everyday but will for certain games and tournaments. Also, will post match analysis, plays, links to articles I’m reading, and the occasional thoughts on handicapping and modeling.

 

Just a few links and plays today…….

 

2014 World Cup 

FiveThirtyEight’s World Cup Predictions

Interesting read from Goldman Sachs….”The World Cup and Economics 2014″

 

Horse Racing

Jockey7…..Why not?

 

Plays

NHL
NYR -140

 

MLB

CHC +121

NYM +110

LAA -130

ARI/HOU Under 8

ATL/COL Over 10

 

Considering a play on the Heat tomorrow and may have a few World Cup futures.

 

Follow me on Twitter. Good Luck!

 

Bet thoughts for Dec 14, 2011

Looked at several bets today. Didn’t like anything in the NHL. A few college basketball games caught my eye but not enough to make any plays.

Started with Tennessee at College of Charleston -2.5. Simulated the game at Charleston 79, Tennessee 71. This result points to CoC -2.5 and Over 143. Not biting on this game though. Too many questions in both teams. Tennessee feels like they are better than their record reflects. They have had a few tough road games. Not sold on Charleston yet; their schedule hasn’t been too tough and want to see how they do against a top-tier team who can score. Passing on both plays.

Probably the most interesting game today is Cincinnati -6 at Wright State. Not sure how good the actual play will be. More interested in how Cincinnati responds to last weekend’s brawl and the suspension of 4 players (including 2 starters). Wright State is a decent team, has a good home crowd, and has played some good teams. Simulated the game at Cincinnati 49, Wright State 45. The line has moved up to Cincinnati -6. Won’t be surprised if Wright State covers this game.

A few other games I simulated. Princeton 72, Rider 58. The line is Princeton -5.5 but not too interested in laying points on a mediocre road team. Auburn 61, South Florida 59. The line is Auburn -2. Auburn has only played 5 games and the 4 games they won were against weak competition; this one is too close to call. Pass.

Will be posting NFL simulations tomorrow. Follow me on Twitter for all my simulations. Good Luck!

2 bets for Dec 13, 2011

Only looked at 2 bets today:

Stars at Rangers -165 (NHL) – Simulated this game Rangers 3.27, Stars 2.13. Both teams have played decent of late. The Rangers have been excellent killing the power play in their last 5 games (allowing 1 in 19 tries). Bachman makes his 2nd start in goal for the Stars. He had a strong début performance but wondering if he’s not as sharp tonight. Taking the Rangers on the money line tonight.

Flames at Predators -150 (NHL) – Simulated this game Predators 2.84, Flames 2.38. Both teams have played better in their last few starts. The Flames are on a 3-game win streak. The Flames are also coming off a home division win; an angle I  normally like to bet against (especially on the road). But tonight I am passing as these two are too close in current form and there isn’t much betting value here. Pass.

Follow me on Twitter for all my simulations. Good Luck!

3 bets for Dec 6, 2011

Considered 3 bets today:

Kings at Ducks Under 5.5 (NHL) – Simulated this game Kings 2.40, Ducks 1.93 for 4.33 total points. This wins 60% of the time based on similar model results. The Kings will be  missing 2 key players tonight; including Mike Richards. Taking Under 5.5 at -140.

Wild at Sharks Under 5.5 (NHL) – Simulated this game at Sharks 2.59, Wild 2.04 for 4.63 total points. Similar win percentage in this scenario. Taking Under 5.5 at -145.

Devils at Maple Leafs -110 (NHL) – Simulated this game at Maple Leafs 3.87, Devils 2.60. Toronto won 5 of their last 8 games against decent competition. New Jersey lost their last 4 games. Toronto’s Reimer is making his 2nd start in goal since October. I have a few questions about this game…Pass.

Will post this week’s NFL simulations tomorrow or early Thursday.

Follow me on Twitter for all my simulations. Good Luck!

3 bets for Dec 2, 2011

Considered 3 bets today:

Devils at Wild Under 5 (NHL) – Simulated this game at Wild 2.89, NJ 1.75 totaling 4.64. Both teams are mediocre offensively. The Wild are a good defensive team and the Devils have been below average when on the power play. The Wild will be without two forwards after leg injuries on Wednesday. Taking Under 5 at -115.

UCLA +31.5 vs. Oregon (CFB) – Simulated this game at Oregon 39, UCLA 24. With Neuheisel’s firing, you would expect a motivated team for his last game. Doubt that Oregon will take this game lightly but 31 points is a big number to cover. Pass.

Washington at Nevada Under 148 (CBB) – Simulated this game Washington 73, Nevada 70 totaling 143. Washington has an explosive offense but haven’t proven that on the road yet. Both teams are decent defensive teams. Nevada is a good rebounding team and expecting them to slow the game down. Taking Under 148.

Follow me on Twitter for all my simulations. Good Luck!

4 bets for Dec 1, 2011

Considered 4 bets today:

Rangers at Hurricanes (NHL) – Simulated this game NYR 3.15, CAR 2.05. The Rangers are playing well and coming of a good win last night. The Rangers should win this game…but they are coming off 2 division wins (3 straight overall WAS, PHI, PIT). The potential let down and one day turnaround concerns me. Pass.

Panthers at Kings Under 5 (NHL) – Simulated this game at FLA 2.14, LAK 2.24 for 4.38 total points. Both teams are solid defensively with excellent goaltenders. Like that both teams are coming off divisional wins (each by 2 goals). Taking Under 5 at +100.

Marist at Loyola -MD -13 (CBB) – Simulated this game at Marist 74, Loyola-MD 72. Marist has played a tough early schedule. They aren’t as bad as they seem on paper. Taking Marist +13 for a small piece.

Siena at St. Peters -6 (CBB) – Simulated this game at St. Peters 55, Siena 51. St. Peters lost several key players from last year’s team but they have talent. Siena is probably the better team now. Siena likely won’ t have Owen Wignot tonight for this road conference opener. Was leaning St. Peters at -4.5 but it is too close for me. Pass.

Follow me on Twitter for all my simulations. Good Luck!

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