Betting Notes – December 1, 2012

A few quick thoughts on today’s games.

NFL

Both MIA and TEN are getting 7+ points at home and have less than 20% of the betting action. Taking MIA +8 and TEN +7.

The CLE/OAK game is floating around CLE -2.5 to -3. The Browns are coming off a rare win over the Steelers and now travel across the country to play a team that needs a win. Cleveland is 0-5 on the road. I had the fair line at OAK -3. Taking the Raiders +3.

Leans: BUF and DET. Playing a 2-team teaser with BUF and DET.

Nothing in CBB or NBA

Follow me on Twitter for all my simulations. Good Luck!

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Betting Notes – December 1, 2012

A few quick thoughts on today’s games.

NBA

The BKN/MIA line is MIA -8. Miami beat Brooklyn by 30 points earlier this season. Brooklyn has played well lately and is coming off a win and cover. Taking BKN +8.

The OKC/NO line is OKC -9. The Thunder are playing back to back games following a 3-game home stand. I like the Hornets in this spot. Taking NO +9.

I like the spot today for the Bulls and Clippers. 2-team teaser Bulls and Clips.

CFB

The Alabama/Georgia line is ALA -8. Like Georgia’s current momentum. Taking the Dawgs +8.

Follow me on Twitter for all my simulations. Good Luck!

CFB Simulations – September 29, 2011

Posting simulations for 2 college football games today. I will occasionally post CFB simulations on Saturday’s and weeknights but won’t be posting all games. No system plays.

CLICK HERE for today’s CFB simulations.

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BCS National Championship – Oregon vs. Auburn

Oregon Ducks (+1) vs. Auburn Tigers (-1), Over/Under 72

The big game is finally here.  Oregon has outpaced teams all year.  They were a top team from week 1.  On the shoulders of Cam Newton, Auburn came from behind 8 times.  The Tigers improved as the season progressed.  Both teams have put up big offensive numbers all year and it is reflected in the over/under line.  The point spread fluctuated between Auburn -3 and a pick.

Oregon (12-0) only had one close game this year.  They won their games by an average of 30.9 points and score more than 40 points in 10 of their 12 games.  They play an up tempo style, with a heavy dose of the option/run.  The Ducks average 6.8 yards per play (YPP) and 10.9 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 4.5 YPP and 18 YPPT.  They are efficient on both sides of the ball.  Junior QB Darron Thomas averages 7.84 yards per attempt (YPA) with 28 TDs and 7 INTs for a 151.1 QB rating.  Thomas also has 5 rushing TDs.  Oregon played an easier schedule but held their opponents to 6.1 points per game less than Auburn.  Auburn has faced better defenses but this will be the best offense they have seen.  Chip Kelly is a more creative (if not better) coach.  Oregon will need to get off to a fast start; can they do that following a 5-week break and the BCS week hype?

Auburn (13-0) is the picture of resilience. They came from behind 8 times, won 5 of their games by a touchdown or less, their Heisman-winning QB was embroiled in a scandal all season, and they beat five Top 20 teams.  Not bad for a team ranked 22nd at the start of the season.  The Tigers average 7.5 YPP and 11.7 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.3 YPP and 14.8 YPPT.  Very efficient on offense; okay on defense.  Oregon forces more turnovers.  Junior QB Cam Newton averages 10.52 YPA with 28 TDs and 6 INTs for a 188.2 QB rating.  As we all know, Newton is very effective running the ball.  He rushed for 1409 yards and 20 TDs in 2010.  Between passing and rushing Newton accounted for 48 TDs.  Wow.  Auburn is a big, strong team.  They should be able to run on the smaller Oregon defense.  Can they slow the fast Ducks’ offense down?

The Sagarin Ratings have Oregon 96.68 and Auburn 94.51.  With no home advantage, the fair line is Oregon -2.17.  According to pregame.com, 64% of spread bets are on Auburn and 76% of total bets are on the under.  The majority of spread bets are on Auburn but the line has moved from -3 to -1 (pk in some places).

My football model predicts Oregon 48.88 over Auburn 39.09 for 87.97 total points.  Oregon averages more yards and points; they are also more efficient on offense.  The teams are decent on defense.  Oregon gives up fewer yards and is more efficient.  Auburn played tougher competition.  The key variance contributor is Auburn’s pass defense.  Auburn has a strong run defense, but is vulnerable to the pass.  The Tigers have to limit Oregon’s passing yards to win tonight’s game.

I am passing on the total play.  I modeled the game Over and the public is on the Under.  Normally, I would play the Over. But 72 points is a lot of points and scoring a TD every 6 minutes for teams who haven’t played in 5 weeks is a tall order.

No total play, but I think there is value in Oregon +1.  Oregon is an up tempo team that wears opponents down.  Oregon is better coached and difficult to defend.  Oregon has a better secondary and forces turnovers.  I modeled the game at Oregon -9.79.  The Sagarin Ratings have the fair line at Oregon -2.17.  The betting line has also moved toward Oregon against the majority of bets on Auburn.  Bet the Oregon Ducks +1. (shop for a better line, there are still a few places with a better number)

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Texas A&M Aggies vs. LSU Tigers, January 7, 2011

Texas A&M Aggies (+3) vs. LSU Tigers (-3), Over/Under 49

No bet of the day yesterday.  Interesting match up in the Cotton Bowl today.  Texas A&M enters today’s game following 6 straight wins; including wins over Oklahoma and Nebraska.  They continued to improve throughout the season.  LSU only lost twice this year; both losses to BCS teams, Auburn and Arkansas.

Texas A&M (9-3) had a good season.  They had a 3-game rough patch (Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri) early in the season but finished tied for 1st in the Big 12 South.  The Aggies are potent on offense and an efficient on defense.  They average 5.5 yards per play (YPP) and 14.1 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allowed 4.7 YPP and 17.6 YPPT.  QB Ryan Tannehill averages 7.21 yards per attempt (YPA) with 11 TDs and 3 INTs for a 141.08 QB rating.  Tannehill has several weapons but faces an excellent front seven in LSU.  Texas A&M will have to pass effectively down field and limit turnovers to win tonight.

LSU (10-2) played a brutal schedule this year.  Not only did they only lose to BCS teams, they were both on the road.  LSU has an excellent defense and finds ways to score when needed.  Hopefully for LSU, the game doesn’t come down to clock management in the 4th quarter.  The Tigers average 5.2 YPP and 11.6 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 4.8 YPP and 17.0 YPPT.   LSU is very efficient on defense.  Their forced turnovers and defensive scoring makes their offense look more efficient.  QB Jordan Jefferson averages 6.60 YPA with 4 TDs and 9 INTs for a 109.71 QB rating.  Jefferson has also rushed for 6 TDs with 0 fumbles.  To win, LSU has to run the ball effectively and slow down the Aggie passing attack.

The Sagarin Ratings have Texas A&M 86.66 and LSU 88.07.  The fair line is LSU -1.41.  According to pregame.com, 78% of spread bets are on LSU.  The total bets are split 50%/50%.

My football model predicts Texas A&M 32.3 over LSU 25.3 for 57.6 total points.  On offense, the Aggies move the ball more effectively while LSU is more efficient at converting points.  On defense, both teams are efficient.  Texas A&M gives up too many passing yards; LSU gives up more rushing yards.  The key variance contributor is Texas A&M’s passing yardage.  Texas A&M needs to pass close to their average against a stingy defense to win and cover tonight.

Tonight I am taking Texas A&M plus the points.  Here’s why.  Texas A&M finished the season strong with Ryan Tannehill at QB; they have momentum and motivation tonight.  Texas A&M has proven they can score on good teams.  The Aggies have a good defense; LSU is mediocre on offense. I modeled the game at Texas A&M -7.  With the line movement there is betting value on the Aggies.  Bet the Texas A&M Aggies +3.

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Bet of the Day – Virginia Tech Hokies at Stanford Cardinals

Virginia Tech Hokies (+3.5) vs. Stanford Cardinals (-3.5), Over/Under 58.5

Yesterday’s bet, Steelers at Browns, was a winner.  Virginia Tech was supposed to be a good team.  Is their 11 game win streak that surprising?  No and Yes.  It isn’t surprising they won 11 games; it is surprising they won 11 games after losing their first 2 games.  Stanford has steadily improved over the last few years.  Their only loss this year came at Oregon.  These are physical teams that play good defense.

The Hokies (11-2) rolled through the ACC.  Following their opening 2 losses, they won each of the next 11 games by 7 or more points.  They average 5.4 yards per play (YPP) and 11.6 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.4 YPP and 18.3 YPPT.  The Hokies are very efficient.  Senior QB Tyrod Taylor averages 8.88 yards per attempt (YPA) with 23 TDs and 4 INTs for a 159.04 QB rating.  Taylor has been excellent throughout  the year.   He and the Hokies don’t turn the ball over and convert points well.  Will their defense be able to slow down Stanford?

Stanford (11-1) won by an average of 22.5 points per game.  Like Virginia Tech, they played a difficult schedule and won most games convincingly.  The Cardinals average 6.5 YPP and 11.6 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.2 YPP and 18.4 YPPT.  Junior QB Andrew Luck averages 8.74 YPA with 28 TDs and 7 INTs for a 166.10 QB rating.  Stanford is the better team on paper and Harbaugh should have the team motivated (could be his last game at Stanford).

The Sagarin Ratings have Stanford 94.51 and Virginia Tech 85.76.  With no home advantage, the fair line is Stanford -8.75.

My football model predicts Stanford 46.58 over Virginia Tech 34.05 for 80.63 total points.  These teams are similar in offensive efficiency.  Stanford gains more yards through the air.  Stanford gives up fewer rushing yards but the teams are almost identical in defensive efficiency.  The key variance contributor is Virginia Tech’s offensive yards gained.  The Hokies must move the ball near their offensive average to keep this game close.

Tonight I am taking Stanford minus the points.  Here’s why.  Stanford is the better team on paper.  Virginia Tech’s run defense is vulnerable; Stanford has a strong running game.  I modeled the game at Stanford -12.54.  Bet the Stanford Cardinals -3.5.  (shop around for Stanford -3)

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Bet of the Day – TCU Horned Frogs vs. Wisconsin Badgers, Jan. 1, 2011

TCU Horned Frogs (-2) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+2), Over/Under 56

Starting the new year with what should be one of the better bowl games.  TCU enters the Rose Bowl undefeated.  They were selected over the normal PAC-10 representation.  Wisconsin is a co-champion of the Big Ten.  They won their last 7 games and scored 70+ points in 2 of those games against Big Ten opponents.  These are tough teams and should offer a fun, competitive game.

TCU (12-0) finished 3rd in the BCS.  As expected, they weren’t able to overcome two undefeated teams from big conferences.  TCU averages 6.7 yards per play (YPP) and 11.3 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 4.0 YPP and 18.9 YPPT.  Very efficient on both sides of the ball.  Senior QB Andy Dalton averages 9.00 yards per attempt (YPA) with 26 TDs and 6 INTs for a 167.02 QB rating.  Dalton has also rushed for 5 TDs.  This is Dalton’s last game with TCU.  He is going for his 42 win.  TCU will have the speed advantage over Wisconsin; after last year’s BCS bowl loss and an undefeated season motivation shouldn’t be a problem.

Wisconsin (11-1) finished the season in a three-way tie atop the Big Ten.  They just edged out Ohio State and Michigan State to earn their first Rose Bowl appearance since 1999.  The Badgers average 6.8 YPP and 10.4 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.2 YPP and 15.8 YPPT.  QB Scott Tolzien averages 9.39 YPA with 16 TDs and 6 INTs for a 169.80 QB rating.  Wisconsin is an efficient team.  They have an excellent running game and a BIG offensive line.  Wisconsin will be looking to wear down the smaller TCU defense.

The Sagarin Ratings have TCU 91.64 and Wisconsin 86.14.  With no home advantage, the fair line is TCU -5.5.

My football model predicts TCU 45.88 over Wisconsin 33.99 for 79.87 total points.  TCU gains more yards on offense, but Wisconsin converts points more efficiently (largely driven by Wisconsin’s low turnover rate).  TCU allows much fewer yards and is more efficient on defense.  The key variance contributor is Wisconsin’s offensive yardage.  Wisconsin has to match or beat their per game offensive yardage to win this game.

Today I am taking TCU minus the points.  Here’s why.  Wisconsin has faced mediocre defenses all year; TCU has a very good defense.  Wisconsin’s defense gives up too many yards and faces an excellent offense today.  The betting value is with TCU.  Bet TCU Horned Frogs -2.

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