The World Cup Starts Today, The World Cup Starts Today – June 12, 2014

World Cup, NBA Playoffs, MLB….Good Thursday in June! The Rangers survived last night but not sure they are still afloat after tomorrow. Expecting the Heat to even up the series tonight. I will be much more invested in the ML than the spread. Enjoy the games tonight.

World Cup Props from Covers

Non-WC Footie Transfer News

In case you missed this throw…

Just in case anyone plays the NA Cup this weekend

Plays

NBA 

Heat -5

Heat ML

MLB

CIN +115 (already started)

SDP -105 (already started)

PIT -115

DET/CHW Under 7

ARI/HOU Under 8.5

NYY +1.5

World Cup

Germany wins Group G -150

Chile -225 over Australia

Belgium -193 over Algeria

 

Horse Racing

Churchill R7 #10 Piceance

Santa Anita R8 #4 Eddie’s Turn

Follow me on Twitter. Good Luck!

Advertisements

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans, Oct 11, 2012

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at Tennessee Titans (+6), Over/Under 43.5

The Steelers and Titans are off to slow starts. The Titans have won only 1 game but have played the toughest schedule to date. The Steelers have played a relatively soft schedule; including an early bye week.

The Steelers (2-2) are coming off a late win versus the in-state rival Philadelphia Eagles.  The Steelers didn’t cover the spread but did get a much-needed win off the bye week. The Steelers average 5.3 yards per play (YPP) and 15.0 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.3 YPP and 12.6 YPPT.  The Steelers defense is less efficient than previous years. QB Ben Roethlisberger averages 7.11 yards per attempt (YPA) for 9 TDs and 1 INTs with a 102.9 QB rating.  Roethlisberger’s YPA is down but his TD/INT ratio is excellent.

The Titans (1-4) have lost 2 straight games and all 5 opponents have scored 30 or more points this season.  The Titans average 5.4 YPP and 17.3 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 6.0 YPP and 11.3 YPPT.  QB Matt Hasselback averages a low 5.52 YPA for 3 TDs and 3 INTs with a 73.6 QB rating.  The Titans are the home underdog in a Thursday night non-divisional game and in desperate need of a win.  The Steelers are playing on the road in a game between the Eagles and division foe Cincinnati.

The Sagarin Ratings have Pittsburgh 22.91 and Cincinnati 13.88.  With the 3.51 home advantage, the fair line is Pittsburgh -5.5.  According to pregame.com, 74% of spread bets are on the Steelers and the Over/Under is split 50/50.  The spread opened at Steelers -6 and in some places moved slightly to -6.5 or -7 (depending on the book(s) you follow); the total has moved from 44 to 43.5.  A majority of bets are on the Steelers, but the line hasn’t firmly made its way to the key number 7.

My NFL model predicts Pittsburgh 28.5 over Tennessee 18.2 for 46.7 total points.  Both teams have been mediocre on offense and under performed on defense.  The Steelers are more efficient on both sides of the ball.  Tennessee gives up more than twice as many rushing yards than they gain.  Pittsburgh should win this game but has to run the ball well. Tennessee has to run the ball better, limit turnovers, and play some semblance of defense to have a chance to win or cover.

The point spread may be a bit high for Pittsburgh. Here’s why. Tennessee has looked dreadful. But they have played a much tougher schedule (opened with the Patriots and played the Chargers, Texans and Vikings on the road). They are a home underdog on a Thursday night. The Steelers are coming off a tough win against the Eagles on a short week and follow this game with a division game. Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t been as good as we’ve seen in the past and Polamalu and Woodley remain out. Bet Tennessee plus the points (as of this writing sportsbook.ag has Titans +7 -115). Try to get the 7 and don’t take less than 6.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

San Antonio Spurs (+1.5) at Chicago Bulls (-1.5), Over/Under 189

Haven’t posted a bet in the last few days due to travel. San Antonio enters tonight’s 7 games ahead in their division. They have won 9 of their last 11 games. In their last meeting with Chicago, the Spurs won by 9 at home. Chicago has a comfortable 13.5-game lead in their division. Chicago has won 3 straight games and enters tonight looking for revenge.

San Antonio (46-9) has rolled through the season. They are fairly healthy for this time of the season. The Spurs average 47.3% shooting with 51 rebounds and 8 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 46.1% shooting with 53 rebounds and 7 steals per game. The Spurs are one of the best teams in the league but 7 of their 9 losses came on the road. They face a motivated top-tier team on the road. This is their last game before the All-Star break. Will the Spurs be motivated tonight?

Chicago (37-16) is an excellent home team. They are 24-4 and haven’t lost at home since January 18th. The Bulls average 46.1% shooting with 53 rebounds and 7 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 42.8% shooting with 49 rebounds and 7 steals per game. The Bulls are a good shooting and excellent defensive team. They lost last time against San Antonio but won both meetings last year. Expecting a good effort from Chicago.

The Sagarin Ratings have San Antonio 97.79 and Chicago 94.92. With the 3.29 home advantage, the fair line is Chicago -0.42.

My NBA model has Chicago 96.13 and San Antonio 93.08 for 189.21 total points. San Antonio is a slightly better and more efficient offensive team. Chicago is a better defensive and rebounding team. The key variance contributor is the Spurs defensive shooting percentage allowed. San Antonio must keep the Bulls below their shooting average to win and cover.

Tonight I am taking the Bulls minus the points. Here’s why. The Bulls lost by 9 last time out against the Spurs and now are coming off a win and cover. The Spurs aren’t as effective on the road and this is the last game before the All-Star break. I modeled the game at Chicago -3.05; the betting value is with the Bulls. Bet Chicago Bulls -1.5.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks. Good Luck!

Milwaukee Bucks (+5) at Memphis Grizzlies (-5), O/U 183.5 – February 11, 2011

Haven’t had a bet of the day in the last few days. Today, I am looking at the Bucks at Grizzlies game. The Bucks haven’t been very good of late. They are 1-5 in their last 6 games; only playing 1 team above .500 in that span. Brandon Jennings has been back for 7 games and is starting to get back in a groove. Memphis is 6-2 in their last 8 games and they are coming off a road win over Oklahoma City. Rudy Gay missed the last game but is probable for tonight.

Milwaukee (20-31, 8-20 away) is playing their 3rd game in 4 days and have another game tomorrow. They have been a bit sluggish of late. They beat Memphis at home 4-straight times. The Bucks average 42.5% shooting with 50 rebounds and 7 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 44.8% shooting with 50 rebounds and 6 steals per game. Milwaukee isn’t a good shooting team. They are a decent defensive squad. Milwaukee doesn’t have much momentum; they will need a big game to win and cover tonight.

Memphis (28-26, 16-8 home) has played very well of late. They sit a few games out of the playoffs; if they can continue playing well they could make the cut. The Grizzlies average 46.2% shooting with 50 rebounds and 9 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 45.5% shooting with 50 rebounds and 7 steals per game. Memphis is a good shooting but mediocre defensive team. Memphis is the better team (currently). Continuing to play at their current level, will make the Grizzlies tough to beat at home.

The Sagarin Ratings have Milwaukee 88.33 and Memphis 91.15. With the 3.36 home advantage, the fair line is Memphis -6.18.

My NBA model has Memphis 93.5 over Milwaukee 87.13 for 180.63 total points (you can get all of today’s model results HERE). Memphis is a better shooting and more efficient team on offense. Milwaukee is a better defensive team. The key variance contributor is Memphis’ offensive shooting percentage. The Grizzlies must shoot at or above their average to win and cover tonight.

Tonight I am taking the home team minus the points. Here’s why. Milwaukee has no momentum and are playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Grizzlies have had a few days rest and are coming off a solid win. I modeled the game at Memphis -6.37 and the Sagarin line is -6.18. Based on my line the value is with Memphis. Bet the Memphis Grizzlies -5.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks. Good Luck!

Super Bowl XLV – Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) at Green Bay Packers (-3), Over/Under 45

Yesterday’s bet, Thunder at Jazz, was a loser. The Steelers opened up as a 3-point underdog. The line hasn’t moved much since opening. There are a handful of story lines coming into the game; Roethlisberger sings, Capers vs. LeBeau, Polamalu or Matthews, etc. Not worried too much over any of the angles but expecting a good game today.

Pittsburgh (14-4) has been in 3 of the last 6 Super Bowls. This is the first time they are the underdog. The Steelers know how to grind out close wins. Pittsburgh averages 5.7 yards per play (YPP) and 14.1 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense. On defense, they allow 4.7 YPP and 17.6 YPPT. Pittsburgh is a very efficient team. QB Ben Roethlisberger averages 8.23 yards per attempt (YPA) with 17 TDs and 5 INTs for a 97.0 QB rating. Roethlisberger is the public’s favorite QB but he has experience in the Super Bowl and is a unique challenge to defenses. The Steelers will likely be missing rookie center Maurkice Pouncey; that is a big hole to fill. Pittsburgh was criticized for being out on the town this week, but expect a prepared team for the big game.

Green Bay (13-6) fought off injuries most of the season. They seemed to get healthy at the right time. The Packers rolled through the playoffs and their late-season momentum is reflected in the betting line. Green Bay averages 5.9 YPP and 14.3 YPPT on offense. On defense, they allow 5.3 YPP and 19.9 YPPT.  Green Bay has an excellent defense and their offense improved in the 2nd half of the season. QB Aaron Rodgers averages 8.26 YPA with 28 TDs and 11 INTs for a 101.2 QB rating. Green Bay faces a talented and fast defense today, running the ball will be tough. The Packers are very focused for this game; they have to control Roethlisberger and limit turnovers to win.

The Sagarin Ratings have Pittsburgh 31.35 and Green Bay 31.18. With no home advantage, the fair line is Pittsburgh -0.17. According to pregame.com, spread bets are 50/50 and 72% of total bets are on the Over.

My NFL Model predicts Pittsburgh 21.3 over Green Bay 20.15 for 41.45 total points. Green Bay moves the ball better than Pittsburgh on offense. Pittsburgh is more efficient on offense. The defenses are very similar; but Pittsburgh has the better rushing defense. The key variance contributor is Pittsburgh’s pass defense. They have to keep Green Bay below their average passing yardage per game to win and cover.

I don’t have a strong lean on either team today. I modeled the game at Steelers -1.15. Based on that and the Sagarin Ratings, I think the betting value is with Pittsburgh. Since I don’t have a strong lean (partly because I had preseason Super Bowl bets on the Packers, Steelers and Cowboys), I am taking the Under. Here’s why. A majority of the public is on the over and the line hasn’t fluctuated much.  There are two excellent defenses playing. The extended commercials and hoopla make it more difficult for an offense to get in rhythm. I modeled the game at 41.45 total points. Bet Steelers/Packers Under 45.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks. Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz, Feb. 5, 2011

Oklahoma City Thunder (+1.5) at Utah Jazz (-1.5), Over/Under 205.5

The Thunder won by 7 in the last match up between these teams in November. Oklahoma City has won 2 straight and now plays their 4th tough game in a row. Utah sits 3 games behind the Thunder in the Northwest division. They won last night in Denver and will be looking for revenge tonight at home.

Oklahoma City (32-17) have been a mediocre road team this year. They are 7-2 in the division. The Thunder average 45.8% shooting with 50 rebounds and 8 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 46.7% shooting with 50 rebounds and 7 steals per game. Oklahoma is an average defensive team and doesn’t shoot great on the road. Durant and the Thunder will need a big effort to win in Utah tonight.

Utah (30-21) is working out of a slump. A nice road win last night could kick-start the team. The Jazz average 46.2% shooting with 48 rebounds and 8 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 45.2% shooting with 50 rebounds and 7 steals per game. Deron Williams was back in the lineup last night and has played well against the Thunder in the past. Utah is banged up but expect a good effort at home tonight.

The Sagarin Ratings have Oklahoma City 93.09 and Utah 91.21. With the 3,58 home advantage, the fair line is Utah -1.7.

My NBA model has Utah 103.5 over Oklahoma City 101.62 for 205.12 total points. Utah is a better shooting team. The Thunder get to the free throw line effectively and shoot 82.9%. The Jazz are a better defensive team. Oklahoma is vulnerable to the 3-point shot. The key variance contributor is Oklahoma City’s defensive shooting percentage allowed. They have to keep Utah at or below their shooting average to win and cover tonight.

Tonight I am taking the home team minus the points. Here’s why. Utah was beat at home by 7 last time out against the Thunder. Utah won and covered last night. The Jazz have the advantage at point guard. Oklahoma City is a mediocre road team who is vulnerable on defense. I modeled the game at Utah -1.88. Bet Utah Jazz -1.5.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks. Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Miami Heat at Orlando Magic, Feb. 3, 2011

Miami Heat (+1) at Orlando Magic (-1), Over/Under 197

The Orlando Magic are apparently still on Lebron’s “list”. They were on his list in November when the Magic won by 9 at home. The Heat are 3.5 games ahead of Orlando in the division. Miami has won 3 straight. They are coming of an easy win over the lowly Cavaliers. Orlando lost last time out at Memphis. Both teams will be motivated tonight for a big game.

Miami (34-14) has played well on the road. They lost last time out in Orlando by 9 but won their first match up in Miami by 26. Miami averages 47.1% shooting with 51 rebounds and 6 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 42.6% with 50 rebounds and 7 steals per game. Miami is playing well and relatively healthy. They will need a big game to win on the road tonight.

Orlando (31-18) has been very good at home. They haven’t been great in recent games though. The Magic average 46.5% shooting with 52 rebounds and 6 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 44.3% shooting with 49 rebounds and 7 steals per game. The Magic are a bit banged up and have been inconsistent recently. Miami appears to be keyed in on this game; can Orlando put together a big game against a Miami team with momentum?

The Sagarin Ratings have Miami 95.83 and Orlando 93.99. With the 3.64 home advantage, the fair line is Orlando -1.8.

My NBA model has Orlando 96.02 and Miami 93.81 for 189.83 total points. Miami is a better shooting and more efficient offense. The teams are similar in defensive statistics but Miami is slightly more efficient. The key variance contributor is Orlando’s offensive shooting percentage. Orlando has to meet or beat their average shooting percentage against a good defense to win and cover tonight.

I don’t go against my line very often but tonight I am taking Miami plus the points. Here’s why. Orlando beat Miami by 9 in their last meeting. Miami is playing well and with momentum. Orlando isn’t playing consistently and has some nagging injuries. Miami seems to have this game circled. Both my line and the Sagarin line are very close to the actual line. Bet the Miami Heat +1.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks. Good Luck!

%d bloggers like this: