2013 NCAA Tournament – First Round

I simulated the 2013 NCAA Tournament. The predicted final four was Duke, Pittsburgh, Florida and Indiana. The predicted winner was Indiana over Duke for 136 total points. There are a few key games that will significantly change the predicted outcome. Two key early games are Pittsburgh/Wichita State and UNC/Villanova.

The results are based on simulations and don’t consider handicapping and situation angles. The purpose is to give a baseline estimation for each game and adjust for handicapping considerations.

Today I am posting first round projections. Travelling tomorrow but will try to post all second round games before Thursday’s games start.

CLICK HERE for a summary of the first round games. Note this file includes the Sagarin Rating, Strength of Schedule, my NCAAB simulation, a possession-based estimate I use, the predicted game winner and the current betting line.

Good luck with your brackets and bets. Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.


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