A Bird in Hand?

The Blue Jays are a -158 ML road favorite today. 84% of money line bets are on them. Brandon Morrow is the better pitcher. Tyson Ross is coming off a terrible outing. The Blue Jays are the better team. They will probably win….But they have lost 3 straight games. Oakland has won 3 straight games. The Blue Jays are facing a right-handed pitcher; their on-base percentage against righties is .305. The Blue Jays have an inferior bullpen. Brandon Morrow has thrown over 100 pitches in all but 1 of his games. He threw 102 last time out,  is coming off a shutout, and his last 3 opponents were mediocre at the plate (Angels, Mariners, Royals).

At a -158 money line, the implied line win probability is 61.5%. Do you think they will win in this situation 6 of 10 times? They might, but I think I will just hold on to my money and not bet on a mediocre team, off 3 straight losses, favored heavily on the road. Just my opinion.

Good luck!

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