NBA Playoff Simulations – May 4, 2012

3 games on today’s NBA schedule. No system plays.

CLICK HERE for today’s NBA simulations.

Follow me on Twitter for all my simulations. Good Luck!

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2 Responses to NBA Playoff Simulations – May 4, 2012

  1. Robert says:

    Love the site but can’t seem to find any explanation of your ‘system’. I follow the daily simulations but when you make one or two system plays I’m at a loss how you picked them. Mind shedding some light on how you make picks from your simulations?

    • derekbets says:

      No problem. Sorry for the mystery. When I use the term system play, I am referring to a play that over time has been profitable using my simulations and handicapping adjustments against the point spread, total or money line. For instance, in the NBA my simulations alone win 53% of the time against the point spread (that is just above break even). But using a handicapping angle, I adjust my simulation in one direction or another. An example might be my simulation favors a home team. That team is a good team (>.650 winning %) that lost to the team they are playing in their last matchup by more than 8 points. I would adjust my simulation by 3 points for the home team. I have called these type of plays momentum plays (i.e. I simulated the game in their favor against the line and their is reason to suspect they will play better than their simulation. These momentum plays have won just over 55% in the past 2 years for NBA point spread bets (there were ~800 games where I had these types of situations relying on several NBA handicapping angles). With that said, there are other situations with my simulations that have also proven profitable (e.g. when road NBA teams are have a +5 point advantage in my sim against the line). Does that help? I can clarify more if needed. I have models for NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, NCAAB and NCAAF and can discuss any of these if you want.

      Also, I have been planning to write some posts about how I make picks for different sports and types of bets. What I have been posting are only system plays based on my simulations. I generally have 1 or 2 plays in addition to these each day that I don’t post. In general, I rely on my simulations and team ratings as a place to start. I don’t bet against my sims but also don’t blindly bet on them either.

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