2011 NFL Simulations – Week 16

16 games on the NFL schedule. 14 system plays: HOU/IND O40, DEN/BUF O41.5, MIA/NE o48, MIN +7, MIN/WAS U44, NYJ -3, NYG/NYJ 045.5, OAK +2, PHI +1.5, SF/SEA O38, STL +3, STL/PIT u39, CHI/GB O44, and ATL/NO O53.

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2011 NFL Simulations – Week 15

16 games on the NFL schedule. 10 system plays: JAX/ATL U42.5, BAL -2.5, BAL/SD O44.5, CAR/HOU O45.5, DET/OAK O48, GB/KC O46, NE/DEN O46, NO -7, WAS +7, WAS/NYG U46.5.

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Bet thoughts for Dec 14, 2011

Looked at several bets today. Didn’t like anything in the NHL. A few college basketball games caught my eye but not enough to make any plays.

Started with Tennessee at College of Charleston -2.5. Simulated the game at Charleston 79, Tennessee 71. This result points to CoC -2.5 and Over 143. Not biting on this game though. Too many questions in both teams. Tennessee feels like they are better than their record reflects. They have had a few tough road games. Not sold on Charleston yet; their schedule hasn’t been too tough and want to see how they do against a top-tier team who can score. Passing on both plays.

Probably the most interesting game today is Cincinnati -6 at Wright State. Not sure how good the actual play will be. More interested in how Cincinnati responds to last weekend’s brawl and the suspension of 4 players (including 2 starters). Wright State is a decent team, has a good home crowd, and has played some good teams. Simulated the game at Cincinnati 49, Wright State 45. The line has moved up to Cincinnati -6. Won’t be surprised if Wright State covers this game.

A few other games I simulated. Princeton 72, Rider 58. The line is Princeton -5.5 but not too interested in laying points on a mediocre road team. Auburn 61, South Florida 59. The line is Auburn -2. Auburn has only played 5 games and the 4 games they won were against weak competition; this one is too close to call. Pass.

Will be posting NFL simulations tomorrow. Follow me on Twitter for all my simulations. Good Luck!

2 bets for Dec 13, 2011

Only looked at 2 bets today:

Stars at Rangers -165 (NHL) – Simulated this game Rangers 3.27, Stars 2.13. Both teams have played decent of late. The Rangers have been excellent killing the power play in their last 5 games (allowing 1 in 19 tries). Bachman makes his 2nd start in goal for the Stars. He had a strong début performance but wondering if he’s not as sharp tonight. Taking the Rangers on the money line tonight.

Flames at Predators -150 (NHL) – Simulated this game Predators 2.84, Flames 2.38. Both teams have played better in their last few starts. The Flames are on a 3-game win streak. The Flames are also coming off a home division win; an angle I  normally like to bet against (especially on the road). But tonight I am passing as these two are too close in current form and there isn’t much betting value here. Pass.

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2011 NFL Simulations – Week 14

16 games on the NFL schedule. 10 system plays: CLE +14, ATL/CAR O48, BUF/SD O47.5, CHI/DEN O35.5, HOU/CIN O38, NE/WAS O48, DAL -3.5, NYG/DAL O49, PHI +3, and SF/ARI O39.5.

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3 bets for Dec 6, 2011

Considered 3 bets today:

Kings at Ducks Under 5.5 (NHL) – Simulated this game Kings 2.40, Ducks 1.93 for 4.33 total points. This wins 60% of the time based on similar model results. The Kings will be  missing 2 key players tonight; including Mike Richards. Taking Under 5.5 at -140.

Wild at Sharks Under 5.5 (NHL) – Simulated this game at Sharks 2.59, Wild 2.04 for 4.63 total points. Similar win percentage in this scenario. Taking Under 5.5 at -145.

Devils at Maple Leafs -110 (NHL) – Simulated this game at Maple Leafs 3.87, Devils 2.60. Toronto won 5 of their last 8 games against decent competition. New Jersey lost their last 4 games. Toronto’s Reimer is making his 2nd start in goal since October. I have a few questions about this game…Pass.

Will post this week’s NFL simulations tomorrow or early Thursday.

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3 bets for Dec 2, 2011

Considered 3 bets today:

Devils at Wild Under 5 (NHL) – Simulated this game at Wild 2.89, NJ 1.75 totaling 4.64. Both teams are mediocre offensively. The Wild are a good defensive team and the Devils have been below average when on the power play. The Wild will be without two forwards after leg injuries on Wednesday. Taking Under 5 at -115.

UCLA +31.5 vs. Oregon (CFB) – Simulated this game at Oregon 39, UCLA 24. With Neuheisel’s firing, you would expect a motivated team for his last game. Doubt that Oregon will take this game lightly but 31 points is a big number to cover. Pass.

Washington at Nevada Under 148 (CBB) – Simulated this game Washington 73, Nevada 70 totaling 143. Washington has an explosive offense but haven’t proven that on the road yet. Both teams are decent defensive teams. Nevada is a good rebounding team and expecting them to slow the game down. Taking Under 148.

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