Milwaukee Bucks (+5) at Memphis Grizzlies (-5), O/U 183.5 – February 11, 2011

Haven’t had a bet of the day in the last few days. Today, I am looking at the Bucks at Grizzlies game. The Bucks haven’t been very good of late. They are 1-5 in their last 6 games; only playing 1 team above .500 in that span. Brandon Jennings has been back for 7 games and is starting to get back in a groove. Memphis is 6-2 in their last 8 games and they are coming off a road win over Oklahoma City. Rudy Gay missed the last game but is probable for tonight.

Milwaukee (20-31, 8-20 away) is playing their 3rd game in 4 days and have another game tomorrow. They have been a bit sluggish of late. They beat Memphis at home 4-straight times. The Bucks average 42.5% shooting with 50 rebounds and 7 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 44.8% shooting with 50 rebounds and 6 steals per game. Milwaukee isn’t a good shooting team. They are a decent defensive squad. Milwaukee doesn’t have much momentum; they will need a big game to win and cover tonight.

Memphis (28-26, 16-8 home) has played very well of late. They sit a few games out of the playoffs; if they can continue playing well they could make the cut. The Grizzlies average 46.2% shooting with 50 rebounds and 9 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 45.5% shooting with 50 rebounds and 7 steals per game. Memphis is a good shooting but mediocre defensive team. Memphis is the better team (currently). Continuing to play at their current level, will make the Grizzlies tough to beat at home.

The Sagarin Ratings have Milwaukee 88.33 and Memphis 91.15. With the 3.36 home advantage, the fair line is Memphis -6.18.

My NBA model has Memphis 93.5 over Milwaukee 87.13 for 180.63 total points (you can get all of today’s model results HERE). Memphis is a better shooting and more efficient team on offense. Milwaukee is a better defensive team. The key variance contributor is Memphis’ offensive shooting percentage. The Grizzlies must shoot at or above their average to win and cover tonight.

Tonight I am taking the home team minus the points. Here’s why. Milwaukee has no momentum and are playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Grizzlies have had a few days rest and are coming off a solid win. I modeled the game at Memphis -6.37 and the Sagarin line is -6.18. Based on my line the value is with Memphis. Bet the Memphis Grizzlies -5.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks. Good Luck!

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