Bet of the Day – Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls, Jan. 28, 2011

Orlando Magic (-1.5) at Chicago Bulls (+1.5), Over/Under 188

Sorry for the late post. No bet of the day yesterday. The Magic enter the game off a comfortable road win over the Pacers.  They are only 1.5 games behind the head in the Southeast division. The Bulls are comfortably atop the Central division. They have won 3 straight but were embarrassed by the Magic at home in December. Derrick Rose has had stomach ulcers but is probable tonight.

Orlando (30-16) is a decent road team. They have beaten the Bulls three straight times by 20 or more points. The Magic average 46.7% shooting with 52 rebounds and 6 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 44.1% shooting with 49 rebounds and 7 steals per game. Orlando has owned the Bulls recently. If Derrick Rose is unable to play, that trend could continue.

Chicago (31-14) has won 8 of their last 10 games. If Derrick Rose is on the bench, it will be a tall order to win a 4th straight game. The Bulls average 45.9% shooting with 54 rebounds and 7 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 42.3% shooting with 49 rebounds and 7 steals per game.  The Bulls are still without Joakim Noah, but Carlos Boozer is back in the lineup. The Bulls have been embarrassed in recent games by the Magic; expect a big effort tonight.

The Sagarin Ratings have Orlando 94.35 and Chicago 94.31. With the 3.51 home advantage, the fair line is Chicago -3.47.

My NBA model has Chicago 94.75 and Orlando 88.59 for 183.34 total points. The Magic are a better, more efficient offense. The Bulls are a better, more efficient defense. The key variance contributor is the Bulls offensive shooting percentage. The Bulls have to shoot at or above their average to win tonight.

Tonight I am taking the Bulls plus the points. Here’s why. Chicago is playing well and is an excellent home team. The Bulls are a home underdog and Rose will likely play. The Magic beat the Bulls in Chicago by 29 in December. I modeled the game at Chicago -6.16. Bet Chicago Bulls +1.5.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: