Bet of the Day – New York Jets at New England Patriots, Jan. 16, 2011

New York Jets (+10) at New England Patriots (-10), Over/Under 45

No bet of the day yesterday.  Never short on commentary, the Jets continued to talk leading up to this game.  They won in Indianapolis last week holding the Colts well below their average yards and points scored.  As we all know, the Patriots embarrassed the Jets when they met in Foxboro earlier this season.  The Patriots had last week off and haven’t said much this week.  They haven’t lost since November 7th and the Jets were their only other loss this season.

New York (12-5) will need a huge defensive performance today in Foxboro.  The Jets average 5.3 yards per play (YPP) and 15.5 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 5 YPP and 15.5 YPPT.  The Jets have an above average offense and an excellent defense.  They are 3rd in yards allowed and 6th in points allowed.  QB Mark Sanchez averages 6.49 yards per attempt (YPA) with 17 TDs and 13 INTs for a 75.3 QB rating.  Sanchez played well in the 2nd half last week.  He has to limit interceptions today.  The Jets can move the ball on offense.  New England is effective at limiting TDs and points converted.  The Jets must score touchdowns and not field goals to cover and win today.

New England (14-2) has the best offense in the NFL.  They average 6.1 YPP and 11.2 YPPT on offense.  On defense, the Patriots allow 5.7 YPP and 18.7 YPPT.  New England’s efficiency numbers read more like a good college team.  They average 5 points more per game than the next closest team.  The Patriots do allow a high number of yards per game on defense.  They force 2.4 turnovers per game while only allowing 0.6.  QB Tom Brady has had a likely MVP season.  He averages 7.93 YPA with 36 TDs and 4 INTs for a 111.0 QB rating.  Brady and the Patriots will move the ball and score points.  They are 8-0 at home and will be ready for today’s game.

The Sagarin Ratings have New England 34.11 and New York 27.08.  With the home advantage of 2.07, the fair line is New England -9.10.  According to pregame.com, 66% of spread bets are on New England and 77% of total bets are on the Over.

My NFL model predicts New England 30.15 over New York 23.47 for 53.62 total points.  New England is clearly the better offense.  They have similar offensive yards, but New England is more efficient.  The Jets allow fewer yards and points on defense.  The key variance contributor is the Jets defensive passing yards allowed.  The Jets have to hold the Patriots below their average passing yards to cover the spread.

Today I am taking the Jets plus the points.  Here’s why.  The Jets were destroyed and embarrassed by the Patriots in November.  The Jets have an excellent defense and their offense has proven they can move the ball against the Patriots.  I modeled the game at New England -6.68.  I expect the Patriots to win, but not cover.  Bet on the New York Jets +10.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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3 Responses to Bet of the Day – New York Jets at New England Patriots, Jan. 16, 2011

  1. mrgrosky says:

    I love all your stats and careful research, but please check my prediction and New York photos at http://thisweekwithmitchgrosky.wordpress.com/ #jets #patriots #newyork
    Mitch

  2. Knup says:

    Derek… Great pick with the Jets. I have to admit I was hesitant to say the least. They took it to the Patriots though. Enjoy reading your blog and keep up the great work.

    Knup

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