Bet of the Day – Orlando Magic at Memphis Grizzlies, Jan. 31, 2011

Orlando Magic (-2) at Memphis Grizzlies (+2), Over/Under 196

Orlando has been up and down lately. They haven’t covered in their last two games. The Magic sit 2.5 games behind Miami in the Southeast division. Memphis has won two straight games and 7 of their last 10. They are now .500 for the season. The Magic beat Memphis in Orlando by 17 in mid-November.

The Magic (31-17) haven’t been a great road team. Their last win over a .500 or better team was January 8th in Dallas (Nowitzki was out). Orlando averages 46.5% shooting with 52 rebounds and 6 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 44.1% shooting with 49 rebounds and 7 steals per game. Orlando has won the last two meetings in convincing fashion. They will need a big effort from a banged-up squad to win on the road tonight.

Memphis (24-24) is 3-0 since O.J. Mayo was suspended. They are 14-7 at home. The Grizzlies average 46.2% shooting with 50 rebounds and 9 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 45.7% shooting with 50 rebounds and 7 steals per game. Memphis has played a tougher schedule than Orlando but their recent home competition has been weak. They are 13-7 against the spread at home. Can the Grizzlies keep their positive momentum moving against a top team?

The Sagarin Ratings have Orlando 94.17 and Memphis 90.79. With the 3.61 home advantage, the fair line is Memphis -0.23.

My NBA model has Memphis 97.45 and Orlando 96.02. The teams are similar on offense in shooting and efficiency. Orlando is a better 3-point shooting team. Orlando is a slightly better defensive team. The key variance contributor is the Grizzlies’ shooting percentage. Memphis has to shoot at or above their average to win tonight.

Tonight I am taking the home team plus the points. Here’s why. Memphis is playing better and shoots 1.9% better on average at home. Orlando isn’t a great home team; they also have some lingering injuries. I modeled the game at Memphis -1.43. Bet Memphis Grizzlies +2.

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NBA Simulations – January 31, 2011

No bet of the day yesterday. Several NBA games tonight. A few momentum plays: Nuggets -3, Cavs/Heat Under 200.5, Grizzlies +1.5, Mavs -10, Jazz -3.

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NBA Simulations – January 30, 2011

Whiffed on yesterday’s bet of the day. Went 2-0 on Twitter picks. Not sure yet about a bet of the day today. Fun NBA games today. A few momentum plays: Nuggets/Sixers Under 208.5, Knicks -6.5, Pistons/Knicks Over 203, Jazz +2.

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Bet of the Day – Missouri Tigers at Texas Longhorns, Jan. 29, 2011

Missouri Tigers (+7) at Texas Longhorns (-7), Over/Under 146

Missouri is coming off two convincing home wins. This is their biggest challenge of the season so far. Texas has rolled through the Big 12 conference. They beat Kansas on the road last Saturday. Can they slow down the high scoring Tigers tonight?

Missouri (17-3) is the highest-scoring team in the Big 12. They haven’t been great in their conference road games, but should have no problem getting up for this game. The Tigers average 47.5% shooting with 38 rebounds and 10 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 40.9% shooting with 37 rebounds and 6 steals per game. Missouri is a deep team that can score at all positions. The Tigers have only scored under 70 points once this year. They face their biggest defensive test to date in Austin tonight.

Texas (17-3) won a much hyped game in Lawrence last week. They are undefeated in the conference; winning by an average of 19.6 points in conference games. The Longhorns average 46.1% shooting with 41 rebounds and 6 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 36.7% shooting with 34 rebounds and 5 steals per game. Texas rebounds very well and plays excellent defense. They will need to play a complete game to slow down a dangerous Missouri team.

The Sagarin Ratings have Texas 91.60 and Missouri 86.73. With the 3.92 home advantage, the fair line is Texas -8.79.

My basketball model has Texas 79.07 and Missouri 71.98 for 151.05 total points. Missouri is a better and more efficient offensive team. Texas is a better defensive team. The key variance contributor is Missouri’s defensive shooting percentage allowed. Missouri has to slow Texas’ solid offense to win and cover.

I don’t see enough value in either side of the point spread. So tonight I am taking the Over. Here’s why. Both teams have very good offenses. Texas has a good defense but has given up big points to similar caliber offenses. Missouri has proven they can score on good teams. I modeled the game at 151.05 total points. Bet Missouri/Texas Over 146.

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NBA Simulations – January 29, 2011

Yesterday’s bet, Magic at Bulls, was a winner. Looking at a few games for a potential bet of the day. A few momentum plays today: Rockets/Spurs Under 212, Bucks -6, Mavericks -5, Hornets -5, Clippers -6.

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Bet of the Day – Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls, Jan. 28, 2011

Orlando Magic (-1.5) at Chicago Bulls (+1.5), Over/Under 188

Sorry for the late post. No bet of the day yesterday. The Magic enter the game off a comfortable road win over the Pacers.  They are only 1.5 games behind the head in the Southeast division. The Bulls are comfortably atop the Central division. They have won 3 straight but were embarrassed by the Magic at home in December. Derrick Rose has had stomach ulcers but is probable tonight.

Orlando (30-16) is a decent road team. They have beaten the Bulls three straight times by 20 or more points. The Magic average 46.7% shooting with 52 rebounds and 6 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 44.1% shooting with 49 rebounds and 7 steals per game. Orlando has owned the Bulls recently. If Derrick Rose is unable to play, that trend could continue.

Chicago (31-14) has won 8 of their last 10 games. If Derrick Rose is on the bench, it will be a tall order to win a 4th straight game. The Bulls average 45.9% shooting with 54 rebounds and 7 steals per game on offense. On defense, they allow 42.3% shooting with 49 rebounds and 7 steals per game.  The Bulls are still without Joakim Noah, but Carlos Boozer is back in the lineup. The Bulls have been embarrassed in recent games by the Magic; expect a big effort tonight.

The Sagarin Ratings have Orlando 94.35 and Chicago 94.31. With the 3.51 home advantage, the fair line is Chicago -3.47.

My NBA model has Chicago 94.75 and Orlando 88.59 for 183.34 total points. The Magic are a better, more efficient offense. The Bulls are a better, more efficient defense. The key variance contributor is the Bulls offensive shooting percentage. The Bulls have to shoot at or above their average to win tonight.

Tonight I am taking the Bulls plus the points. Here’s why. Chicago is playing well and is an excellent home team. The Bulls are a home underdog and Rose will likely play. The Magic beat the Bulls in Chicago by 29 in December. I modeled the game at Chicago -6.16. Bet Chicago Bulls +1.5.

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NBA Simulations – January 28, 2011

Full set of games today. Will be posting a bet of the day later today. There are several momentum plays: Pacers -6, Nuggets/Cavs Under 216.5, Wizards/Thunder Under 210, Twolves/Jazz Under 215.5, Lakers -12.5, Celtics -3.5, and Bobcats +4.5.

CLICK HERE for today’s NBA simulations.

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