NFL Week 17 Simulations

Click HERE for a pdf file of my NFL Week 17 Simulations.  I will continue to post simulations through the playoffs and Super Bowl.

Happy New Year!

Advertisements

Nothing to enticing today, so no bet of the day today.  Will be posting NFL Week 17 simulations later today and will return with a bet of the day tomorrow.  Good Luck!

NBA Simulations – December 31, 2010

Last day of the year.  Hope you finish a winner in 2010.  There are a few plays that stood out.  There weren’t any strong angles for the under in the Golden State/Charlotte game but I modeled it well below the line and it is dropping.  May be a good play if you can still get 208.  Strong angles on WAS, TOR, and DET.  TOR was the only one I modeled within the point spread.  TOR +9 may be a good play.  LAL is coming off a good road win following a 3-game losing streak.  They are a very good home team and Philly isn’t a good road team.  That coupled  with Iguodala being questionable tonight might be a decent play too if the line moves down to LAL -9.

Click HERE for a pdf file of today’s NBA simulations.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks, Dec. 30, 2010

San Antonio Spurs (-3) at Dallas Mavericks (+3), Over/Under 191.5

Yesterday’s bet, Warriors at Hawks, was a winner.  Both Dallas and San Antonio have rolled through their schedule.  Unfortunately for Dallas, that will be tough to continue while Dirk Nowitzki is out of the lineup.  Nowitzki injured his knee in Monday’s game at Oklahoma City and will not play tonight.

The Spurs (27-4) only lost 2 games in December.  Tim Duncan is playing only 26 minutes a game.  His minutes and his stats are down.  Will this pay dividends in the playoffs?  San Antonio averages 47.2% shooting with 50 rebounds and 9 steals per game on offense.  On defense, they allow 45.8% shooting with 50 rebounds and 7 steals per game.  San Antonio is healthy and playing well.  They lost by 9 at home to Dallas in November.  Expecting a good outing from the Spurs.

Like San Antonio, the Mavericks (24-6) only lost twice in December.  It will be tough to avoid a 3rd loss with Nowitzki out.  But don’t expect Dallas to rollover at home tonight.  The Mavs average 47.7% shooting with 48 rebounds and 7 steals per game on offense.  On defense, they allow 43.5% shooting with 48 rebounds and 7 steals per game.  Dallas is 2.5 games behind the Spurs in the Southwest division.  Dallas won the 1st of 4 games this season in San Antonio.  Nowitzki accounted for 26 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists in that game.  Can that production be replaced tonight in Dallas?  Dallas has won 4 straight regular-season games against the Spurs.

The Sagarin Ratings have San Antonio 97.76 Dallas 96.70.  With the 3.21 home advantage, the fair line is Dallas -2.15.  This doesn’t take into account Dirk Nowitzki not playing tonight.

My NBA model predicts San Antonio 93.33 over Dallas 88.68 for 182.01 total points.  Nowitzki’s absence is considered in the model results.  San Antonio is the better shooting and more efficient offensive team.  San Antonio is also a better defensive team.  The key variance contributor is San Antonio’s offensive shooting efficiency.  The Spurs must shoot at or above their average to win tonight.

Tonight I am taking the Spurs minus the points.  Here’s why.  Dallas won in San Antonio by 9 in the 1st meeting of the season.  The Spurs are a top team and will want to even the series with a key divisional opponent.  Nowitzki is out; this leaves a big hole to fill for Dallas.  I modeled the game at San Antonio -4.65.  Bet the San Antonio Spurs -3.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bowl Game Simulations – December 30, 2010

Quick post on today’s bowl game simulation results.

Kansas State 25.4, Syracuse 21.6 for 47 total points
Tennessee 26.5, UNC 25.9 for 52.4 total points
Nebraska 41.3, Washington 17.4 for 58.7 total points

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

NBA Simulations – December 30, 2010

Click HERE for today’s NBA simulations. Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks, Dec. 29, 2010

Golden State Warriors (+6.5) at Atlanta Hawks (-6.5), Over/Under 203

Yesterday’s bet, Celtics at Pacers, was a winner.  Don’t have a strong opinion on the bowl games tonight.  Golden State enters tonight’s game with 3 straight wins.  Atlanta has won 3 of their last 4.

The Warriors (12-18) are not a good road team.  They are 4-12 in road games this season and now travel across the country to play a better Atlanta team.  The Warriors have played well of late and will at least be confident entering tonight’s game.  They average 45.5% shooting with 49 rebounds and 9 steals per game on offense.  On defense, they allow 46.6% shooting with 53 rebounds and 9 steals per game.  Golden State hasn’t played the toughest competition lately.  Tonight they start a 5 game road trip against better opposition.  This is a tough spot for the Warriors.

The Hawks (20-13) are a very good home team.  They haven’t lost at home since November 22nd.  They enter this game off a good road win.  Atlanta averages 46.8% shooting with 47 rebounds and 6 steals per game on offense.  On defense, they allow 44.9% shooting with 49 rebounds and 7 steals per game.  Atlanta is the better team and faces a weak defense in Golden State.  Expecting a strong effort tonight from the Hawks.

The Sagarin Ratings have Atlanta 91.61 and Golden State 87.46.  With the 3.17 home advantage, the fair line is Atlanta -7.32.

My NBA model predicts Atlanta 103.79 over Golden State 94.72 for 198.52 total points.  Atlanta shoots better from the field and free throw line.  The Warriors are a better 3-point shooting team.  Atlanta is clearly a better defensive team.  The key variance contributor is Golden State’s offensive and defensive shooting efficiency.  They will have to shoot better than their average against a good defensive team on the road to win and cover.

Tonight, I am taking the Hawks minus the points.  Here’s why.  Golden State is coming of a winning streak against weaker teams on the West coast.  They now travel across the country to start a 5-game road trip.  Atlanta is very good at home.  They are also playing well.  Atlanta defends the 3-point shot well; Golden State’s strength.  I modeled the game at Atlanta -9.  Bet the Atlanta Hawks -6.5.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

%d bloggers like this: