Bet of the Day – Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots, Nov. 21, 2010

Indianapolis Colts (+4) at New England Patriots (-4), Over/Under 49.5

Yesterday’s bet, Nebraska at Texas A&M, was a loser.  As mentioned before, I am leaving on vacation and today’s post is my last until December 3rd.  Back to the NFL for the big Colts at Patriots game.

The Colts (6-3) have been banged up for a few weeks now.  They beat the Bengals at home last week but did little on offense while Cincinnati had 5 turnovers.  The Colts average 5.6 yard per play (YPP) and 14.2 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.7 YPP and 16.7 YPPT.  QB Peyton Manning averages 6.90 yards per attempt (YPA) with 16 TDs and 4 INTs for a 93.9 QB rating.  Decent efficiency for the NFL.  The Colts will pass the ball but the Patriots are tough at home.

The Patriots (7-2) picked up a nice win at Pittsburgh last week.  But New England has lost 4 of their last 5 against the Colts.  The Patriots average 5.7 YPP and 11.8 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 6.0 YPP and 16.4 YPPT.  QB Tom Brady averages 7.16 YPA with 17 TDs and 4 INTs for a 98.8 QB rating.  The Patriots haven’t had much luck lately against the Colt, but they seem to be in a better spot today.

The Sagarin Ratings have New England 27.49 and Indianapolis 23.93.  With the 2.82 point home advantage, the fair line is New England -6.38.

My NFL model predicts New England 32.3 over Indianapolis 30.4 for 62.6 total points.  The Colts gain more offensive yards but New England is more efficient at converting points.  The Patriots give up more passing yards and are less efficient on defense.  The key variance contributors are both teams passing defense.  The Patriots face a big challenge in the Colts offense and will need to beat their mean yards allowed to win the game.

Today, I am teasing the Patriots and the Over.  Here’s why.  The Patriots are very good at home.  The Colts have a pile of injuries.  Both teams can score points and have questionable defenses.  Bet a 7-point teaser with the Patriots +3 and the Colts/Patriots Over 42.5.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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