Bet of the Day – Georgia Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers, Nov. 13, 2010

Georgia Bulldogs (+6) at Auburn Tigers (-6), Over/Under 63

Yesterday’s bet, Portland at Oklahoma City, was a push.  Not too many big games in college football today, so I have to go with the much-hyped Georgia at Auburn game.  We all know the Cam Newton story (If you don’t click here), but they still play the game.  Expecting a fun game.

Georgia (5-5) started off the season 1-4.  They have turned things around and are playing closer to what we expect.  The Bulldogs have played the usual, tough SEC schedule.  But they haven’t beat any of the ranked teams (losses to South Carolina, Arkansas, Florida).  Two of those losses came without WR A.J. Green.  Green is one of the best receivers in the nation and has been a huge boost to the offense.  The Bulldogs average 6.1 yards per play (YPP) and 11.7 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.1 YPP and 15.7 YPPT.  They are efficient (11th in the NCAA for Offensive YPPT).  Freshman QB Aaron Murray averages 8.98 yards per attempt (YPA) with 18 TDs and 6 INTs for a 155.33 QB rating.  Murray has also rushed for 177 yards and 4 TDs.  Georgia has to take care of the ball.  In their 5 wins they have 2 turnovers; in their 5 losses they have 10 turnovers.  Georgia is a good team but they are vulnerable on defense.  They have a young QB and face their toughest test of the year today.

Auburn (10-0) has played tough games this year, but none with a major distraction looming above.  How they respond today could define this team.  Cam Newton is the weekly story, but Auburn has productive weapons in WR Darvin Adams and RB Michael Dyer.  The Tigers average 7.7 YPP and 12.1 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.1 YPP and 14.7 YPPT.  QB Cam Newton averages 10.3 YPA for 19 TDs and 5 INTs with a 182.77 QB rating.  The bigger story; Newton has rushed for 1146 yards averaging 6.5 yards with 15 TDs.  Week in and week out, Newton is the focus of the defense, but no one has had an answer.  Auburn’s defense is okay; they are vulnerable to the pass.  To this point they have been as good as needed.  Tough game today for the Tigers; can they play through the media speculation?

The Sagarin Ratings have Auburn 89.89 and Georgia 75.27.  With the 3.15 home advantage, the fair line is Auburn -17.77.  According to pregame.com, 62% bets are on Auburn but the line has moved from Auburn -9.5 to -6.  That is significant movement considering a majority of the bets are on Auburn.

My football model predicts Auburn 50.9 over Georgia 34.4 for 85.3 total points.  Auburn averages 100 offensive yards more than Georgia per game.  Georgia is slightly more efficient on offense.  Both defenses are average.  The key variance contributors are Georgia’s passing offense versus Auburn’s rushing offense.  Whichever team can better maximize their biggest strength will win.

I liked Georgia alot more a +9.5 but not nearly as much inside a touchdown.  It is tough to win on the road in the SEC, especially with a Freshman QB.  I am going to tease Auburn with another game.  Here’s why.  Auburn will have a chip on it’s shoulder.  Georgia hasn’t beat a ranked team and now faces an experienced team at home.  Auburn has more weapons than just Cam Newton.  Auburn has a better offensive line.  Georgia can keep this close, but I don’t think they will have enough experience to win this game on the road.  Bet a 7-point teaser Auburn +1 with Army/Kent St. Under 51.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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