Site Update

Hello All.  I am on vacation with no web access until December 2nd.  Regular post will begin again on December 3rd.

Derek

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Bet of the Day – Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots, Nov. 21, 2010

Indianapolis Colts (+4) at New England Patriots (-4), Over/Under 49.5

Yesterday’s bet, Nebraska at Texas A&M, was a loser.  As mentioned before, I am leaving on vacation and today’s post is my last until December 3rd.  Back to the NFL for the big Colts at Patriots game.

The Colts (6-3) have been banged up for a few weeks now.  They beat the Bengals at home last week but did little on offense while Cincinnati had 5 turnovers.  The Colts average 5.6 yard per play (YPP) and 14.2 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.7 YPP and 16.7 YPPT.  QB Peyton Manning averages 6.90 yards per attempt (YPA) with 16 TDs and 4 INTs for a 93.9 QB rating.  Decent efficiency for the NFL.  The Colts will pass the ball but the Patriots are tough at home.

The Patriots (7-2) picked up a nice win at Pittsburgh last week.  But New England has lost 4 of their last 5 against the Colts.  The Patriots average 5.7 YPP and 11.8 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 6.0 YPP and 16.4 YPPT.  QB Tom Brady averages 7.16 YPA with 17 TDs and 4 INTs for a 98.8 QB rating.  The Patriots haven’t had much luck lately against the Colt, but they seem to be in a better spot today.

The Sagarin Ratings have New England 27.49 and Indianapolis 23.93.  With the 2.82 point home advantage, the fair line is New England -6.38.

My NFL model predicts New England 32.3 over Indianapolis 30.4 for 62.6 total points.  The Colts gain more offensive yards but New England is more efficient at converting points.  The Patriots give up more passing yards and are less efficient on defense.  The key variance contributors are both teams passing defense.  The Patriots face a big challenge in the Colts offense and will need to beat their mean yards allowed to win the game.

Today, I am teasing the Patriots and the Over.  Here’s why.  The Patriots are very good at home.  The Colts have a pile of injuries.  Both teams can score points and have questionable defenses.  Bet a 7-point teaser with the Patriots +3 and the Colts/Patriots Over 42.5.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Nebraska Cornhuskers at Texas A&M Aggies, Nov. 20, 2010

Nebraska Cornhuskers (-2.5) at Texas A&M Aggies (+2.5), Over/Under 54.5

Yesterday’s bet, Bulls at Mavericks, was a winner.  There were a few decent games today.  I haven’t covered the Aggies this year, so I thought today is the best chance I will get this year.  5 weeks ago, who would have thought Nebraska is only a 2.5 point favorite over Texas A&M.

The Cornhuskers (9-1) are entering their last real test of the regular season.  Last week, they completely shutdown Kansas State.  Nebraska averages 6.8 yards per play (YPP) and 12.4 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 4.4 YPP and 16.7 YPPT.  Freshman QB Taylor Martinez averages 9.1 yards per attempt (YPA) with 9 TDs and 4 INTs for a 150.17 QB rating.  Martinez has also rushed for 957 yards and 12 TDs (there is reason for concern with Martinez and his injured ankle today).  The Cornhuskers are an excellent team on both sides of the ball.  They are in a tough spot on the road but face an A&M team that has played 3 big games in a row.

Texas A&M (7-3) has improved with Ryan Tannehill at QB.  It was more than just a new QB.  The Aggies played an incredibly tough schedule; 6 of their last 7 opponents are above .500.  The Aggies average 5.6 YPP and 13.5 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 4.7 YPP and 16.4 YPPT.  Tanehill averages 8.1 YPA with 10 TDs and 3 INTs for a 156.61 QB rating.  Texas A&M is a good team, they will have to limit Nebraska’s yardage to win today.

The Sagarin Ratings have Nebraska 87.45 and Texas A&M 84.47.  With the 2.94 home advantage, the fair line is Nebraska -0.04 (basically a pick’em).  According to pregame.com, 74% of spread bets are on Nebraska but the line has moved from -3 to -2.5.  86% of total bets are on the Over and it moved to 54.5.

My football model predicts Texas A&M 38.9 over Nebraska 37.6 for 76.5 total points.  Both teams average over 400 yards on offense; Nebraska is more efficient converting points.  Nebraska allows fewer yards on defense, but the teams are very close in efficiency.  The key variance contributors are both team’s offensive strengths; Nebraska’s running game vs. The Aggie passing game.  Whoever can better perform in their strength (relative to their mean production) should win the game.

Today, I am taking the Over.  Here’s why.  Both teams are very efficient on offense.  Neither defense has faced an offense this good in the last few games.  Both teams will be very motivated, looking to score quickly.  I modeled game at 76 total points; well above the total line.  Bet on Nebraska/Texas A&M Over 54.5.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!  [Note: Going on vacation tomorrow for 11 days.  I will be untethered.  So tomorrow’s post will be my last until December 3rd.]

Bet of the Day – Chicago Bulls at Dallas Mavericks, Nov. 19, 2010

Chicago Bulls (+5) at Dallas Mavericks (-5), Over/Under 195

Yesterday’s bet, Bears at Dolphins, was a loser.  Back to the NBA tonight for what should be a fun game.  Will release a pick on the Boise St. game on Twitter.

The Bulls (6-4) are in their 3rd game of a long road trip.  They have won 4 of their last 5 games.  They are coming off 2 days rest for tonight’s game.  The Bulls average 47.7% shooting with 53 rebounds and 8 steals.  They allow 44.6% shooting with 49 rebounds and 9 steals.  The Bulls are a solid team.  They played a tough early schedule but have bounced back nicely without Carlos Boozer.  In their last game, they played a bit flat but are poised for a solid effort tonight.

Like the Bulls, the Mavericks (7-3) are coming off a flat loss after 4 straight wins.  Dallas doesn’t foul very much or turn the ball over; they will need similar clean play to win tonight.  The Mavs average 48.8% shooting with 49 rebounds and 7 steals per game.  They allow 42.9% shooting with 48 rebounds and 9 steals per game.  Dallas was out rebounded in 3 of their last 5 games.  Tonight they faced a good rebounding team.  Expecting a good effort from Dallas but a tough game.

The Sagarin Ratings have Dallas 95.97 and Chicago 92.86.  With the 1.76 home advantage, the fair line is Dallas -4.87.  According to pregame.com, 58% of spread bets are on Dallas and 94% of total bets are on the over.  The spread seems fair but all the money is on the over and it isn’t moving.  Are there sharps on the under?

My NBA model predicts Dallas 96.9 over Chicago 94.1 for 191 total points.  They have very similar offensive statistics.  Dallas shoots slightly better while Chicago is a better rebounding team.  The defenses are similar too.  The key variance contributor is both teams offensive shooting percentage.  Chicago will need to shoot at or above their average to win tonight.

Tonight I am taking the Under.  Here’s why.  I don’t see any value in the spread.  Both teams play good defense (for the NBA that is).  These teams will play cleaner tonight than their last outing and we won’t see too many free throws.  I modeled this game at 191; there appears to be value in the total line.  Bet Chicago/Dallas Under 195.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins, Nov. 18, 2010

Chicago Bears (+1.5) at Miami Dolphins (-1.5), Over/Under

We have an interesting game tonight.  Both teams are coming off a decent win but a short week.

At 6-3, the Bears are in a good spot, but how good are the Bears.  They average 5.3 yards per play (YPP) and 15.3 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they allow 4.9 YPP and 18.6 YPPT.  QB Jay Cutler averages 7.76 yards per attempt (YPA) with 12 TDs and 9 INTs for a 86.2 QB rating. The Bears are an okay team.  Expect a solid effort from the Bears defense.

The Dolphins (5-4) have played a tough schedule.  They are coming off a nice win.  Miami averages 5.5 YPP and 18.0 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they allow 5.3 YPP and 14.7 YPPT.  QB Chad Henne averages 7.02 YPA for 9 TDs and 11 INTs for a 79.4 QB rating.  Unfortunately for Miami, Henne is injured. Tyler Thigpen gets the start tonight; Thigpen was decent against the Titans last week. Miami has some injuries but they will play well tonight. The Dolphins can win with mediocre QB play.

The Sagarin Ratings have Miami 23.38 and Chicago 19.73.  With the 2.82 home advantage, the fair line is Miami -6.47.

My NFL model predicts Miami 18.8 over Chicago 18.0 for 36.8 total points.  These teams are very similar on offense and defense. Chicago is more efficient on both sides of the ball.  The key variance contributor is both teams pass defense. Whichever team can slow down the other teams passing game (relative to their mean) should win.

Today, I am taking Miami minus the points.  Here’s why.  Miami has played a tough schedule.  They are a good team and at home while only a slight favorite.  There is betting value with Miami.  Its a short week, but the travel doesn’t make it easier for Chicago.  Bet on Miami -1.5.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks!  Good Luck!

NFL Week 11

Today’s bet was a winner.  Probably won’t have a bet of the day tomorrow (still in DC) but will try to post.  Below are my NFL week 11 simulations.  Had another good week with the momentum plays in week 10.  I like several under plays in week 11.

Click NFL Week 11 for a .pdf file of my week 11 simulation results.

SAGARIN – current week Sagarin Ratings
SIM SCORE  – simulation results
ADJ SCORE – simulation results plus how I would adjust the score using traditional handicapping techniques 

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

Bet of the Day – Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers, Nov. 16, 2010

Atlanta Hawks (-2) at Indiana Pacers (+2), Over/Under 203.5

Yesterday’s bet, Eagles at Redskins, was a winner.  Not much to choose from tonight as far as games.  The Hawks and Pacers are two decent teams coming off wins over weak teams.

The Hawks (7-4) opened the season with 6 straight wins.  They dropped 4 straight against tough competition.  They are shooting 49.3% from the field with 47 rebounds and 6 steals.  On defense, they allow 45.7% with 49 rebounds and 8 steals.  Atlanta has owned Indiana in their last few meetings.  They are a solid team and should play well tonight.

The Pacers (4-4) are a good team. Tyler Hansbrough is questionable and Darren Collison is out for tonight’s game.  The Pacers are shooting 45.6% with 51 rebounds and 6 steals.  On defense, they allow 44.5% with 50 rebounds and 9 steals.  This is a big game for the Pacers.  Expecting an all out effort tonight.

The Sagarin Ratings have Indiana 90.01 and Atlanta 89.98.  With the 1.63 home advantage, the fair line is Indiana -1.66.  According to pregame.com, 84% of spread bets are on Atlanta and the line moved from a pick to Atlanta -2.  89% of total bets are on the over but the line has moved from 204 to 203.5.

My NBA model predicts Indiana 104.8 over Atlanta 98.4 for 203.2 total points.  Atlanta shoots better from the field.  Indiana is a better 3-pt shooting and offensive rebounding team.  Atlanta doesn’t give up as many 3’s and free throws on defense.  The key variance contributors are both teams shooting percentage.  Whoever shoots closer or above their mean shooting percentage will win.

Tonight I am taking the Under.  I modeled the game at 203 and can see some additional deflation with Indiana.  Bet Atlanta/Indiana Under 203.5.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks!  Good Luck!

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