Bet of the Day – New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys, Oct. 25, 2010

New York Giants (+3.5) at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5), Over/Under 45

Yesterday’s bet, New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers, was a loser.  3 losses in a row.  I am ice-cold these days.  Let’s turn it around tonight.  The Giants might be good team; they are now 4-2.  The Cowboys are 1-4 (I’m sure Dallas radio has been fun).

The Giants have won 3 straight.  During that stretch they have held all 3 teams under 100 yards rushing.  On offense, the Giants are averaging 5.9 yards per play (YPP) and 16.8 yards per point scored (YPPT).  On defense, they allow 4.6 YPP and 13.5 YPPT.  They are doing well on YPP but not too efficient on YPPT.  QB Eli Manning is averaging 7.25 yards per attempt (YPA) with 10 TDs and 8 INTs for a 86.2 QB rating.  Not convinced they are as good as their record; 0-2 against quality teams, but they are on the improve.  The Giants will need a big game in big D to beat a desperate team.

Dallas is in trouble.  1-4 and hosting a Monday Night Football divisional game.  Doesn’t get bigger than that.  The Cowboys average 6.1 YPP and 19.6 YPPT on offense.  They are allowing 5.5 YPP and 12.7 YPPT on defense.  QB Tony Romo is averaging 7.60 YPA with 10 TDs and 7 INTs for a 93.6 QB rating.  Dallas has to limit turnovers and convert points.  The Giants have stopped the run and forced turnovers of late; can Dallas turn the tide.

The Sagarin Ratings have New York 22.99 and Dallas 19.51.  With the 2.59 point home advantage, the fair line is New York -0.89.

My NFL model predicts Dallas 23.0 over New York 22.3 for 45.3 total points.  Both teams should have similar offensive yardage.  The Giants score more efficiently.  Defensively they are nearly identical; Dallas gives up a few more yards.  The key variance in the model is both teams offensive passing yards.  Whichever team can more effectively pass the ball (relative to their mean) should win the game.

I don’t have much faith in either team.  Tonight I am taking a slightly different approach to betting the game.  I am going to do a 2-side teaser with the Giants and the Under.  Here’s why.  The Giants are the better overall team.  It’s a Monday night divisional game; the Giants will come to play.  Dallas makes mistakes and the Giants force turnovers.  According to pregame.com, 84% of total bets are on the over but the total hasn’t really moved.  My model predicts a close game around 45 total points.  Bet a 7-point teaser with the New York Giants +10.5 and the New York Giants/Dallas Cowboys Under 52.

Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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