Bet of the Day – LSU Tiger at Auburn Tigers, Oct. 23, 2010

LSU Tigers (+6) at Auburn Tigers (-6), Over/Under 51.5

Yesterday’s bet, South Florida Bulls at Cincinnati Bearcats, was a loser.  I was going to post on Sooners and Tigers, but I grew up in the South and went to an SEC school.  So, I feel compelled to post on LSU at Auburn.  Auburn’s Cam Newton is now the Heisman front-runner and the hype grows for Auburn.  LSU was criticized for ugly wins all year; they are now 7-0.  Big game in Alabama today.

LSU made their name on wild finishes and questionable decisions.  They are undefeated through 7 games.  Les Miles’ may be the Inspector Gadget of college football coaching, but his teams find ways to win.  LSU had a few tough weeks in a row but now comes into a conference rivalry game off an easy week (McNeese State) with the public thinking they are overrated.  Are they the upset special tonight?  LSU is averaging 5.2 yards per play (YPP) and 12.3 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  Surprisingly efficient for a team that has 17 turnovers in 7 games.  On defense, they are allowing 4.0 YPP and 16.8 YPPT.  LSU has only allowed 1 team more than 300 yards of offense.  LSU has rotated 2 QBs all year.  LSU will be up for this game and will look to slow down the pace and grind out a win.  They will need to watch their turnovers and control field position.

Auburn is also undefeated.  They come into this game following a big win over Arkansas.  Before that they survived a scare at Kentucky.  Their offense is dynamic while their defense is suspect.  On offense Auburn is averaging 7.2 YPP for 11.8 YPPT.  Very effective.  On defense, they allow 5.2 YPP and 15.1 YPPT.  They have given up too many yards but have forced turnovers of late.  QB Cam Newton is a dangerous pass and run threat.  Newton is averaging 10.5 yards per attempt with 13 passing TDs and 5 INTs.  He also has 12 rushing TDs.  Auburn faces it’s best defense of the season.  Can they run the ball against LSU?  They will have to if they want to win.

The Sagarin Ratings have Auburn 87.67 and LSU 86.83.  With the 3.50 point home advantage, the fair line is Auburn -4.34.

My football model predicts Auburn 31.2 over LSU 27.1 for 58.3 total points.  I’m not convinced it will be this high scoring.  Both teams average high yardage; Auburn scores more efficiently.  LSU’s turnovers are a big part of that efficiency difference.  LSU’s defense is very effective.   The key variance is both LSU and Auburn’s defensive pass yards allowed.  One or two big pass plays could open this game up in either direction.

Today I am taking LSU.  Here’s why.  LSU had a cupcake last week while Auburn comes off two emotional games in a row.  Auburn is becoming a media darling while many think LSU should have 2 losses.  LSU has the best defense Auburn has faced and they matchup well.  Bet on the LSU Tigers -6.

I may post a 2nd game later today.  Feel free to comment or ask questions below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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