Bet of the Day – Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins, October 17, 2010

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Washington Redskins (+3), Over/Under 44

Yesterday’s bet, Ohio State at Wisconsin, was a loser.  Today’s game is the Sunday night game.  Both teams are coming off wins but have injury and defense concerns.

The Colts (3-2) are third in their division and have a bye next week.  They aren’t as good as they were last year but still have a very potent offense.  They Colts are averaging 5.8 yards per play (YPP) and 14.6 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense, they are allowing 5.8 YPP and 17.1 YPPT.  They have shown the ability to keep teams out of the end zone and force field goals.  QB Peyton Manning is averaging 7.45 yards per attempt (YPA) for 11 TDs and 2 INTs with a 102.6 QB rating.  RB Joseph Addai is probable today but will likely see limited action.  The Colts’ will need to establish some sort of run today to win the game.

The Redskins (3-2) have won 2 straight big games over the Eagles and Packers.  Are they in an upset spot today?  They are averaging 6.0 YPP and 18.9 YPPT on offense.  On defense, they are averaging 5.9 YPP and 22.3 YPPT.  They give up too many yards but do a good job of limiting scoring.  QB Donovan McNabb is averaging 7.74 YPA for 4 TDs and 3 INTs with an 81.9 QB rating.  The Redskins are without RB Clinton Portis today.  They will need more offensive production to stay with the Colts.

The Sagarin Ratings have Indianapolis at 26.08 and Washington at 18.92.  With the 2.88 point home advantage, the fair betting line is the Colts -4.28.  According to pregame.com, 82% of bets are the Colts but the line has gone from -4 to -3.  Are the Sharp bettors on the Redskins?

My NFL model predicts Colts 34.0 over Redskins 19.6 for 53.6 total points.  On paper, both teams give up too many yards on defense and pass the ball well.  The Colts pass the ball better and more efficiently convert points.  The key variance contributors in the model are Washington’s scoring efficiency and passing game.  They have to pass the ball above their average and convert points to win today.

Today, I am going against what feels like a sharp play and the home underdog.  I am taking the Colts.  Here’s why.  The Redskins have had two big wins in a row and are in a deflation spot.  The Colts move the ball in the air.  The Redskins’ pass defense is questionable.  The Colts had a big let down game 2 weeks ago and ground out a win last week.  I expect a step forward today.  Bet on the Indianapolis Colts -3.

Feel free to ask questions or comment below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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