Bet of the Day – Kansas State Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks, Oct. 14, 2010

Kansas State Wildcats (-3) at Kansas Jayhawks (+3), Over/Under 50

Yesterday’s bet of the day, Central Florida Knights at Marshall Thundering Herd, was a winner.  1-2 on my Twitter picks.  2-2 on all bets yesterday. Debated on which CFB game to pick tonight, so I went with what should the closer of the two games.  This game is a Thursday primetime Conference and in-state rivalry game.  Should be a good one.

Kansas State was dominated last week at home.  They had no answer for Taylor Martinez or the Nebraska running game.  That was their first loss (4-1 on the season).  The Wildcats are averaging 5.7 yards per play (YPP) and 13.4 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense.  On defense they are allowing 5.9 YPP and 15.6 YPPT.  They have played a tougher schedule than Kansas.  QB Carson Coffman is averaging 7.45 yards per attempt (YPA) for 6 TDs and 3 INTs with a 137.88 QB rating.  Rumor is the Wildcats QB job is up for grabs so we could see a rotation tonight.  Senior RB Daniel Thomas has 691 yards in 5 games with 6 TDs and 0 fumbles.  The Jayhawks will be very motivated tonight, so Kansas State must be on top of their game to win on the road.

The Jayhawks are coming off an embarrassing loss at Baylor.  Baylor had 678 yards on offense.  The Baylor game was the game before a bye week and before the Jayhawks biggest rivalry.  Prior to that game, the Jayhawks looked okay (beat Georgia Tech).  They are in a prime spot to surprise people tonight.  The Jayhawks are averaging 4.8 YPP and 17.3 YPPT on offense.  On defense, the Jayhawks are allowing 5.9 YPP and 14.2 YPPT.  Not great numbers, but they were much better before the Baylor game.  Freshman QB Jordan Webb is averaging 6.58 YPA for 6 TDs and 3 INTs with a 127.0 QB rating.  Webb is inconsistent as expected from a freshman.  The Jayhawks have good size in their receivers and should have an advantage there.  This is the circled game for Kansas.  They have had a few extra days to prepare and will put their best team on the field.

The Sagarin Ratings have Kansas State 75.56 and Kansas 60.92.  With the 3.91 home advantage, the fair betting line is Kansas State -10.73.  This indicates the betting value is with Kansas State.  According to pregame.com, 82% of the bets are on Kansas State but the line has moved from -4 to -3.  Sharps on the Jayhawks?

My football model predicts Kansas State 25.7 over Kansas 18.1 for 43.8 total points.  Both teams can move the ball; the Wildcats are a better rushing team and score more efficiently (convert points).  Both teams give up too many rushing yards on defense.  The key variance contributors are Kansas State’s ability to pass and run the ball.  Kansas State will have to meet or beat their mean offensive production to cover the spread tonight.

Kansas State is the better team.  Tonight I am going with the home underdog.  Here’s why.  This is Kansas’ biggest game of the year.  They are a home underdog to their biggest rival on Thursday primetime.  Kansas has played well against heavy run teams like Kansas State.  Kansas State has some uncertainty at QB.  Kansas may be a bit undervalued by the public after the Baylor loss (it wasn’t in the cards for them that day).  Bet on the Kansas Jayhawks +3.

Feel free to comment or ask questions below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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