Bet of the Day – Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets, Oct. 11, 2010

Minnesota Vikings (+5) at New York Jets (-5), Over/Under 38.5

Yesterday’s bet, Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys, was a loser.  The 2nd leg of Thursday’s teaser won.  Big match-up tonight on Monday Night Football.  The Vikings had a busy week in the media; acquiring Randy Moss and the much-anticipated Brett Favre scandal hit the newswire (Amazing how the scandal from when Favre was with the Jets hit the week the Vikings visit).  The Jets keep winning; maybe they are who we thought they were?  Expect a good game tonight.

The Vikings haven’t started well.  They are averaging 5.4 yards per play (YPP) and 22.9 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense while allowing 5 YPP and 21.8 YPPT on defense.  Annual training camp holdout QB Brett Favre is averaging 6.16 yards per attempt (YPA) for 2 TDs and 6 INTs with a 60.4 QB rating.  Favre hasn’t had much help but he also hasn’t helped himself.  The Vikings will improve on offense and will be highly motivated for tonight’s game.  Will they improve enough to hang with the Jets?

The Jets are backing up most of their talk.  They are averaging 5.8 YPP and 12.8 YPPT on offense while allowing 5.1 YPP and 20.2 YPPT on defense.  QB Mark Sanchez is averaging 6.9 YPA for 8 TDs and 0 INTs with a 105.3 QB rating.  What happened to the sophomore slump?  The Jets also get Santonio Holmes and Darrelle Revis back tonight.  The Jets are one of the best teams in the league.  With all the hype and recent success, all teams are gunning to beat them.

The Sagarin Ratings have New York 26.48 and Minnesota 18.67.  With the 2.57 point home advantage, the fair betting line is New York -10.38.  This indicates the betting value is with the New York Jets -5.  According to Pregame.com, 52% of bets are on the Vikings and the line has moved from Jets -5.5 to -5.

My NFL model predicts New York 23.9 over Minnesota 11.7 for 35.6 total points.  Statistically, the teams are very close on offense and defense.  The difference is New York’s ability to convert points.  A big part of that is they haven’t turned the ball over (once in 4 games).  The Vikings have 8 turnovers in 3 games.  The Vikings will have to finish red zone opportunities and limit turnovers to win.

Tonight, I think situational factors and a motivated Vikings team will make this closer than expected.  I am taking the Vikings plus the points.  Here’s why.  The Vikings played bad in their first 2 games and kept the games close against good teams.  The Jets are coming off 3 straight divisional games.  Worst case, adding Randy Moss is a distraction for the Jets secondary.  Best case, he stretches the field and makes an immediate impact.  The Vikings have 8 turnovers, the Jets have 1; that rate won’t last for either team.  The Vikings need this game much more and are motivated.  Bet on the Minnesota Vikings +5.

Feel free to comment or ask a question below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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