Bet of the Day – Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys, Oct. 10, 2010

Tennessee Titans (+7) at Dallas Cowboys (-7), Over/Under 42.5

Yesterdays bet, Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines, was a winner.  Quick bet on Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes was also a winner.  Today’s game is the Titans and Cowboys.  Both teams expected to have winning records at this point.  The Titans have been good against NFC opponents recently; Dallas is good of a bye week.  Tough game and line.

The Tennessee Titans had an ugly loss at home last weekend.  How ugly you ask?  The Titans gained 288 yards.  That’s okay, but they gave up 111 yards on 10 penalties.  The Titans are averaging 5.2 yards per play (YPP) and 11.7 yards per point scored (YPPT) on offense while allowing 4.8 YPP and 17.8 YPPT.  Not bad.  QB Vince Young is averaging 7.2 yards per attempt for 4 TDs and 2 INTs for a 94.3 QB rating.  The Titans have to limit turnovers and penalties to have a chance today.

The Cowboys looked bad in their first 2 games.  They moved the ball but couldn’t score points.  In their third game at Houston, they were more balanced on offense, didn’t turn the ball over and scored.  Who will show up today?  Dallas is averaging 5.7 YPP and 21.8 YPPT on offense (as I said, convert points).  On defense, Dallas is allowing 5.7 YPP and 16.9 YPPT.  Tony Romo is averaging 7.34 YPA with 4 TDs and 2 INTs for a 93.9 QB rating.  That’s right readers, Vince Young has a higher QB rating than Romo.  Remember this day!  Dallas has to run the ball and convert points to win and cover today.

The Sagarin Ratings have Tennessee 21.91 and Dallas 20.71.  With the 2.57 home advantage, the fair betting line is Dallas -1.37.  Currently, Dallas is a 7 point favorite, indicating the betting value is with the Titans.  According to Pregame.com, 56% of bets are on the Titans yet the line has moved from -6.5 to -7 for Dallas.  There may be some sharp action on Dallas.

My NFL model predicts Dallas 19.7 over Tennessee 16.7 for 36.5 total points.  Digging into the stats, both teams are giving up nearly identical yards on defense; Dallas is more prone to giving up a big pass play.  On offense, Tennessee runs the ball well and Dallas passes the ball for a bulk of their production.  The major variance contributor is Tennessee’s offensive production.  To win the Titans must gain more yards than their mean.

Today’s bet is the Dallas Cowboys.  Here’s why.  Dallas improved last time out and had a bye week to continue to work things out.  Tennessee is sloppy and will turn the ball over.  Dallas will control the clock and stop the Titan running game. Bet on the Dallas Cowboys -7. Try to find -6.5 but don’t take -7.5.

Feel free to comment or ask questions below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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