Bet of the Day – New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, Oct. 06, 2010

New York Yankees (-145) at Minnesota Twins (+135), Over/Under 7.5

Yesterday’s bet, Troy Trojans at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, was a winner.  Back to the diamond today for the Yankees and Twins opener.  Tonight’s game is the key to this short series.  With the Yankees pitching woes and Sabathia on the mound, this is a must win.  The Twins have revenge on their minds.  Expect a fun game tonight.

The Yankees have dominated the Twins in recent playoff years.  This year might be more of a challenge.  The Yankees have questions in their rotation and will be heavily reliant on their bullpen and scoring runs.  The Yankees batted .256 with a .336 OBP for 4.8 runs per game in road games this season.  The Yankees have held home opponents to a .320 OBP for 4.0 runs per game.  Staff ace CC Sabathia (21-7, 1.191 WHIP) starts tonight.  Sabathia is 14-8 in starts against Minnesota with a 2.99 ERA and 1.225 WHIP.  Sabathia hasn’t faced the Twins in 2010.  I expect Sabathia will pitch well tonight.  The Yankees need to start strong tonight or it could be a short post-season.

The Twins have been a great home team in 2010.  The Twins batted .282 with a .353 OBP for 4.9 runs per game in home games while allowing a .309 OBP for 3.9 runs per game.  Starting pitcher Francisco Liriano (14-10, 1.262 WHIP) had a good year but slumped in the closing weeks of the season.  He rebounded sharply in the past off of rest, can he do it again?  One concern with Liriano is lack of playoff experience.  Manager Ron Gardenhire has his team motivated and will pull out all the stops tonight.

Using home/away statistics, my baseball model predicts Minnesota 4.6 over New York 3.9 for 8.5 total runs.  The Twins get on base more often and score runs more efficiently.  The Yankees bullpen is more effective.  The key variance contributor is Sabathia’s walks and hits allowed.  Sabathia needs to allow fewer men on-base than he averages for the Yankees to win tonight.

I flipped on this game about 3 times now but tonight I am going to take the home team.  Here’s why.  Minnesota is a revenge-minded home underdog.  Minnesota has played good at home all year.  The betting value is with Minnesota.  Bet on the Minnesota Twins on the money line +135.

Feel free to comment or ask questions below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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