Bet of the Day – Troy Trojans at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Oct. 5, 2010

Troy Trojans (+3.5) at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-3.5), Over/Under

Yesterday’s bet, New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, was a big, fat loser.  First loss since last Tuesday.  Today’s bet of the day will be a bit abbreviated.  This is because I will be posting my MLB Playoff predictions tonight.  There is only one real game today; hence the selection.  Here we go!

The Troy Trojans (2-2) are a good team.  Small school good.  They just lost at Oklahoma State and UAB.  They average 6.0 yards per play (YPP) and 14.1 yards per point scored (YPPT) while allowing 6.1 YPP and 14.1 YPPT.  They can score points, but like a lot of small schools, they also allow too many points.  They will be motivated for tonight’s conference showdown.

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-2) are also a good small school team.  They haven’t been tested like Troy yet but visit Georgia Tech in about 11 days.  The Blue Raiders average 6.1 YPP and 13.8 YPPT while allowing 4.4 YPP and 14.8 YPPT on defense.  Similar to Troy, they give up too many points.  The concern is that they haven’t faced the same level of competition as Troy and still give up too many points.

The Sagarin Ratings have Troy at 67.21 over Middle Tennessee 61.08.  With the 3.01 home advantage, the fair line is Troy -3.12.  The betting value is with Troy +3.5.

My football model predicts Middle Tennessee 30.4 over Troy 29.5 for 59.9 total points.  On paper, both teams have given up too many yards on defense.  They both run the ball well but Troy moves the ball better in the air.  The model variance contributor is Troy’s pass offense and pass defense.  To win, Troy needs to move the ball in the air and slow down the Middle Tennessee passing game.

Tonight, I am taking the Troy Trojans plus the points.  Here’s why.  Troy has faced tougher competition.  Tr0y has a better quarterback and a very good receiver in Jerrel Jernigan that will be hard to stop.  The betting value is with Troy. Bet on the Troy Trojans +3.5.

Feel free to comment or ask questions below or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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