Bet of the Day – Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles, Oct. 3, 2010

Washington Redskins (+6) at Philadelphia Eagles (-6), Over/Under 46

Yesterday’s bet, Stanford Cardinals at Oregon Ducks, was a winner.  Also, 3-0 on my Twitter bets yesterday.  Was going to post on the Bears and Giants today (betting Giants -3), but thought the tougher game was the Redskins and Eagles.  Here we go!

The Redskins (1-2) are coming off two not-good losses. The Redskins are averaging 6.4 yards per play (YPP) and 18.2 yards per point scored (YPPT) while allowing 5.8 YPP and 19 YPPT on defense.  The Eagles stop the run, but have been vulnerable to the pass.  Former Eagle QB Donovan McNabb is averaging 8.17 yards per attempt (YPA) for 2 TDs and 1 INT with an 89.2 QB rating.  McNabb is a definite improvement in Washington but he and the Redskins need to convert points.  The Redskins seem unlikely at first glance but this might be a perfect spot to take the points.

The Eagles are now 2-1 and coming off a big win at Jacksonville.  They are averaging 6.5 YPP and 13.3 YPPT while allowing 4.7 YPP and 15 YPPT.  QB Michael Vick is the talk of the league.  He’s clearly improved as a QB but I am not sold based on the wins to date (i.e. quality of teams played).  He is averaging 8.43 YPA for 6 TDs and 0 INTs for a 110.2 QB rating.  Pretty good.  The Eagles are +4 in turnovers but have had 28 penalties in 3 games; are the going to regress to the turnover mean today?

The Sagarin Ratings have Philadelphia 23.62 over Washington 15.15.  With the 3.16 home advantage, the fair line is Philadelphia -11.63.  With a 6 point spread, the value is with Philadelphia.

My football model predicts Philadelphia 36.3 over Washington 27.7 for 64 total points.  The Redskins move the ball in the air while the Eagles move it on the ground.  The Eagles defense is better on paper but has only played one good quarterback.  The variance contributors are Philadelphia’s pass offense and pass defense.  To win, the Eagles need to continue to move the ball in the air but must limit Vick’s downfield passing.

The Eagles are the better team.  But I am taking the Redskins plus the points (surprise surprise!).  Here’s why.  The Redskins have played better teams and quarterbacks.  McNabb and the Redskins will put their best game on the field today.  Vick hasn’t started in a “big game” as a starter since his return.  The Eagles will turn the ball over (Fumble gods).  McNabb will manage the game.  Bet on the Washington Redskins +6.

If you have questions or comments, please add below in the comment field or email me at derekbets@gmail.com.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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