We pushed on last night’s bet. Our World Series bet on the Giants is alive and kicking. If you haven’t taken the other side yet for a guaranteed profit, you will have another opportunity tomorrow and for a better price. I haven’t taken the other side yet and may not.
There isn’t one big game tonight, so I am going to mix it up a bit. Today, I am going to post two teaser bets.
West Virginia Mountaineers (-5.5) at Connecticut Huskies (+5.5), Over/Under 45
West Virginia is coming of a mistake filled loss to an improving Syracuse team. They are a decent, undervalued team after last week’s loss. Connecticut has problems. They have dropped 2 straight games and now must fall back on mediocre QB Zach Frazer (6.11 YPA, 109.51 QB rating). The Huskies are a home underdog in primetime. Both teams are better than their last loss would indicate.
My football model predicted West Virginia 23.1 over UConn 17.8 for 40.9 total points. WVU has a more balanced offense. UConn can score efficiently. West Virginia has a much more effective defense. The key variance contributor is WVU’s pass defense vs. UConn’s pass offense. UConn will need to pass the ball well above their mean yardage to win tonight.
I am going to tease WVU and the under. Here’s why. WVU is a better team and last week’s loss will have them focused and motivated. WVU has a good defense and will limit UConn’s already struggling passing game. Bet a 7-point teaser West Virgina +1.5 and WVU/UConn Under 52.
Orlando Magic (+4) at Miami Heat (-4), Over/Under 187.5
The Magic are a good team. They easily handled the Wizards in their opener. The Magic have depth and size, an advantage over the Heat. The Heat played better in their 2nd game but now play their 3rd game in 4 days. They clearly have huge talent and the continuity will come. Both teams will be highly motivated tonight. I modeled this game at Magic 94.0 over Heat 87.5 for 181.5 total points.
Los Angeles Lakers (-5.5) at Phoenix Suns (+5.5), Over/Under 209
The Lakers didn’t look great in their opener, but came from behind and won. They have more talent and can finish plays better than the Suns. This is only their 2nd game but will look to improve tonight. The Suns are playing their 3 game in 4 days. The Suns won easily last night but face a much tougher test in the Lakers. This is their home opener so the Suns are motivated. The rested Lakers will eventual wear down the Suns. I modeled this game at Lakers 106 over Suns 104 for 210 total points.
I am going to tease the Magic and the Lakers. Here’s why. The Heat will be up for the game but have no answer for Dwight Howard. The Magic are also very motivated for this game and will bring their best. The Lakers are the better team and the Suns are playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Bet a 2-team teaser Orlando Magic +9.5 and LA Lakers pk.
Will post a normal bet of the day tomorrow on either Oregon at USC or Missouri at Nebraska. Follow me on Twitter for all my picks. Good Luck!
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