Bet of the Day – New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, Sept. 29, 2010

New York Yankees (-105) at Toronto Blue Jays (-105), Over/Under 8.5

Yesterday’s bet, Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, was a loser.  2-1 yesterday on Twitter picks.  Not too much to pick from today [Thought bubble: I hate betting on the last week of baseball]. The New York Yankees have locked up at least a spot in the playoffs.  The Blue Jays are out but have played well lately.

The Yankees have only won 2 of the last 7 games batting .236 with a .309 OBP for 4.4 runs per game.  They have also allowed 6.4 runs per game over the same stretch.  With manager Joe Girardi resting planned starter Andy Pettitte, you have to wonder if the Yankees are showing up tonight.  Javier Vazquez (10-9, 1.362 WHIP) has disappointed this year.  He had a good stretch in early June, but his last win decision was on July 26.  Vazquez hasn’t pitched since September 10th.

The Blue Jays have won 5 of the last 7 batting .211 with a .276 OBP for 4.0 runs per game.  They aren’t hitting well, but they are winning.  They have held opponents to 3.9 runs per game over the same stretch.  Brett Cecil (14-7, 1.309 WHIP) starts tonight for the Blue Jays.  Cecil hasn’t pitched great lately but has recorded 3 wins in 4 starts.  Cecil doesn’t give up many home runs and walks at home; he improved last time out and should be effective tonight against a ‘resting’ Yankee lineup.

My baseball model projects Toronto 4.55 over New York 4.25 for 8.8 total runs.  The Yankees get on base more effectively, but at home Toronto is much more efficient scoring.  The Yankees have a better bullpen but the Blue Jays have the starting pitcher advantage.  The biggest variance contributor is walks and hits allowed by Javier Vazquez.  They Yankees will need Vazquez to pitch better than his average to win.

Tonight I’m taking the Toronto Blue Jays.  Here’s why.  The Blue Jays score very efficiently at home.  The Yankees clinched last night and the scratch of Pettitte make me question their intent.  Javier Vazquez hasn’t pitched consistently of late.  Bet on the Toronto Blue Jays on the Money Line -105. Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!


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