Bet of the Day – Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, Sept. 28, 2010

Boston Red Sox (-105) at Chicago White Sox (-105), Over/Under 9

Yesterday’s bet, Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, was a winner.  Slim Pickens on games today.  Speaking of slim, the Red Sox still have the slimmest of hopes for a playoff spot.  But they are playing well.  The White Sox are out but manager Ozzie Guillen is adamant they aren’t packing it in.

The Red Sox have won 4 of their last 7 batting .290 with a .360 OBP for 5.0 runs per game.  The Red Sox are 5.5 games out of the Wild Card; they would need to win out and the Yankees or Rays lose out.  Starting pitcher John Lackey (13-11, 1.451 WHIP) hasn’t been great this year.  He has shown signs of improvement recently (1.146 WHIP in last 3 games) and pitches well against the White Sox.  The Red Sox are a good road team (43-35).  They are batting .263 with a .330 OBP for 5.0 runs per game.  Their weakness is their bullpen (1.469 WHIP with 13 of their total 19 blown saves in road games).  Expect the Red Sox to play to win today but they will need a good outing from Lackey and the bullpen.

The White Sox haven’t been great down the stretch.  They have won 4 of their last 7 but have only hit .233 with a .275 OBP for 2.7 runs per game.  The White Sox swept the previous series over the Red Sox (that sweep came during a long winning streak).  The White Sox start Edwin Jackson tonight.  Jackson (9-12, 1.408 WHIP) is coming off good win at Oakland (7 IP, 5 hits and 2 earned runs).  Jackson hasn’t faced Boston this year but hasn’t done well in the past (2-4, 1.804 WHIP).  It’s hard to gauge if the White Sox are showing up tonight or not.

Using home/away stats, my baseball model predicts Chicago 5.36 over Boston 4.91 for 10.27 total runs.  These teams are extremely close on paper in all categories.  Both teams score very efficiently and field mediocre pitching tonight.  I also ran the model using total stats.  The projected score based on all stats is Boston 5.07 over 4.87 for 9.94 total runs.  Boston gets on base more consistently and scores slightly more efficiently.

Tonight I am taking the Boston Red Sox.  Here’s why.  The Red Sox are hitting well.  The Red Sox have a small playoff chance and need to win.  Chicago has nothing to play for; they aren’t playing a division leader so I am not really sold they want to play the spoiler either.  Edwin Jackson can have control issues and faces an excellent on-base team.  Bet on the Boston Red Sox on the money line -105.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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