Bet of the Day – New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, Sept. 26, 2010

New York Jets (+1) at Miami Dolphins (-1), Over/Under 35.5

Yesterday’s bet, Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks, was a winner.  We also went 3-2 on Twitter picks (252-202-4 to date).  Today’s bet of the day is on the Jets and Dolphins prime time game.  Coming off a big win over the Patriots, the Jets lost Revis  and had a very public DWI arrest for Braylon Edwards.  The Dolphins are now 2-0 and atop the AFC East.  Tonight’s game has plenty of questions hopefully we will have some answers.

The Jets (1-1) throttled the Patriots in the 2nd half last week, flashing the type of play we expect from the much-hyped team.  QB Mark Sanchez played much better throwing for 220 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs for a 124.3 QB rating.  Another step forward will be a challenge against an aggressive Dolphin defense.  The Jets are averaging 4.9 yards per play (YPP) and 13.8 yards per point scored (YPPT) while allowing 4.4 YPP and 23.9 YPPT.  Last week’s offensive performance was better for sure; but the Patriots defense isn’t as good as the Dolphin’s defense.  The Jets’ defense will play well (as they do) but expect some regression on the offensive side of the ball.  The Jets lost both games last year against the Dolphins.  Are they motivated?

Are the Dolphins a surprise 2-0?  Not really, they have won 2 road games (always hard to do) but their opponents weren’t exactly at the top of their game.  Today is a big game; the Home opener against an AFC East Rival.  Starting QB Chad Henne has been mediocre averaging 6.04 yards per attempt for 1 TD and 0 INTs with a 85.1 QB Rating.  The team offensive stats aren’t much better.  Miami is averaging 4.6 YPP and 18 YPPT (Not Efficient!) while allowing 4.4 YPP and 26.5 YPPT (Efficient!) on defense.  The offensive stats aren’t great, but the Dolphins are winning.  They are +2 in turnovers, have 49 less penalty yards, and have a defensive TD; they are a grinding team.  Expect Miami to be up for this game today.

The Sagarin Ratings have Miami 24.01 over New York 23.35.  With the 3.16 home advantage, the fair betting line is 3.82.  With a Miami -1 point spread, the betting value is with the Dolphins.

My football model predicts Miami 17.3 over New York 10.4 for 27.7 total points.  On paper, both teams have excellent defenses.  Despite all the talk, the Jets are more vulnerable to the pass but can stop the run.  Their offensive stats are nearly identical; the Jets score more efficiently.  The key variance contributor is the Jets pass offense.  The Jet’s have to pass the ball with success (similar to last weeks production) to win today.

Today I am taking the Dolphins.  Here’s why.  This is Miami’s home opener against a division rival in prime time.  Miami has a solid defense and doesn’t make many mistakes.  Miami’s Wildcat option is difficult to defend.  The Jets are coming off a big win, have some injury problems, and had team discipline issues this week; are they focused?  Bet on the Miami Dolphins -1.  Follow me on Twitter for all my picks (today’s picks are Jacksonville +3, NY Giants -2.5, Padres ML -125).  Good Luck!


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