Bet of the Day – Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets – Sept. 13, 2010 7:00 ET

Baltimore Ravens (+1) at New York Jets (-1), Over/Under 36

Yesterday’s bet was a winner.  We had a good weekend covering on both the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Washington Redskins.  Today we are looking at the much-anticipated Ravens and Jets Monday night opener.  Both teams are known for their aggressive defense but the use of their new weapons may decide this game.  Trash-talk will be the norm in this chippy matchup.

The Baltimore Ravens have added several receiving options for quarterback Joe Flacco.  Some say more options than they can use.  The Ravens averaged 5.7 YPP and 14.4 YPPT in 2009.  They rushed for 130 yards per game but passed for only 203 yards per game.  The Ravens added Anquan Boldin which gives the Ravens the physical slot option they may need.  Physicality isn’t a problem on defense, but age is.  The Raven defense, still led by Ray Lewis, allowed only 4.9 YPP for 17.9 YPPT.  Tonight they face a talented Jets offense whose biggest question is chemistry.

Teams don’t get more quotable than the New York Jets and their coach Rex Ryan.  The Jets were a surprise team in 2009.  They won’t surprise anyone in 2010.  Since late in the 2009 season, the Jets have been on a steady diet of big names and big paychecks.  Behind a heavy run game, the Jets averaged 5.2 YPP for 15.2 YPPT in 2009.  Adding RB LaDainian Tomlinson and WR Santonio Holmes gives sophomore quarterback Mark Sanchez more depth and options in 2010.  Santonio Holmes is suspended for this game.  Like Baltimore, the Jets have a physical and  stiff defense.  What the Ravens do to the run, the Jets do to the pass.  The Jets allowed 4.6 YPP for 17.4 YPPT.  The unknown will be Darrelle Revis’ game shape.

I will use Sagarin Ratings and my football simulation model to evaluate the point spread and betting value.  Following Sagarin, New York is a slight favorite.  Sagarin values New York at 22.68 and Baltimore at 24.51.  With a 3.07 home advantage, New York would be a 1.24 favorite.

My football model predicts a similarly close game with New York 22.46 over Baltimore 20.08 for 42.54 total points.  On paper, it is clear that Baltimore is slightly better passing while New York is better running.  Both teams do a good job on run defense.  The Jets pass defense is clearly better on paper.  The key variance contributor is Baltimore’s ability to pass against the Jet defense.  Considering the close projections and the very close point spread, I decided to run the model on 2009 home and away stats.  This produces much different results; New York 24.49 over Baltimore 15.20 for 39.69 total points. Two key factors drive this point difference, Baltimore’s pass offense and defense.  In road games, Baltimore averaged 63 yards per game less on offense and allowed 30 yards more per game.  With the drop in offensive production on the road, can Baltimore’s passing additions bolster their road performance against the Jets defense?

With the close point spread, we are really betting on the winner here.  This is a tough game to call, but I am going to go with the Jets at home.  Here is why.  The Jets are a good team at home.  Baltimore’s drop in passing production in road games is a concern.  The Jets added depth and weapons to their offense.  Kris Jenkins returns and will bolster the already strong run defense.  Rex Ryan knows how to motivate and the team knows the spotlight is on.  Expect a tough game, but Bet on the New York Jets (-1).  Follow me on twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!


One Response to Bet of the Day – Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets – Sept. 13, 2010 7:00 ET

  1. Pingback: Weekly Results – September 13th to 19th « Derek Bets

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