Bet of the Day – Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, September 1, 2010

Colorado Rockies (-111) at San Francisco Giants (+101), Over/Under 6.5 runs, 9.15 ET

We won with the suddenly hot Braves yesterday.  Today we stay in the National League for the Rockies (69-62) and Giants (73-60) finale.  Not only is today the series finale, the season series is 4-4 and this is the last time they will face each other.  Six months ago this would have been a over-hyped game, but now Ubaldo Jimenez (17-5, 1.129 WHIP) and Tim Lincecum (11-9, 1.353 WHIP) have lost 5 of the last 6 games they have pitched in.  Jimenez has been phenomenal most of the year but Lincecum has only been average (He only has the third best ERA on his own team).  Will they return to their top form today?

The Rockies are 5-2 over their last 7 games with a .350 OBP averaging 5.4 runs per game (.332 OBP and 4.6 runs per game on the season).  Their bats will need to stay hot for starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez to secure a win today.  Jimenez has lost 2 0f his last 3 allowing 3 earned runs in each game.  Not terrible, but not Jimenez.  The Rockies bullpen has maintained a strong 1.271 WHIP but tends to give up key hits and home runs.

Tim Lincecum hasn’t pitched beyond the 6th inning since July 30th; 6 starts ago.  Over that stretch he allowed 22 runs over 25.3 innings.  A 7.83 ERA over that 5 game stretch.  At least on paper the Giants have been hot hitting with a .344 OBP for 6.4 runs per game over their last 7 games.  When you dig into the game lines it isn’t as convincing.  The Giants haven’t been consistent; scoring 9 runs one day to only get 4 hits the next day.  Which team will we see today?

My baseball model simulated the game Rockies 4.45 over Giants 3.62 for a total of 8.07 runs.  From the results, the Rockies hold a clear pitching advantage and a slight hitting and scoring efficiency advantage.  A major variance contributor in the model is San Francisco’s scoring efficiency.  The up and down nature makes their production an unknown.

Pitchers are like horses, they have form cycles and normally round in and out of form during a season.  Both starting pitchers have been off form of late and I don’t think they are both going to wake up at their peak today.  With the streaky hitting of the Giants, the scoring ability of the Rockies and the off form from both pitchers, today’s bet is on the run total.  At 6.5 runs, both pitchers would need to be on their game.  I don’t think that is going to happen.  Bet the Colorado Rockies/San Francisco Giants Over the 6.5 total line.

Tomorrow I will look at my first college football game.  Follow me on twitter for all my picks.  Good Luck!

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