Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills – August 28, 2010 6:30 ET

Cincinnati (-3) at Buffalo (+3), Over/Under 35

Yesterday’s bet was a flop.  Today’s bet of the day is another NFL preseason game, the Cincinnati Bengals at the Buffalo Bills.  Both teams have improving offenses and can force turnovers.  The Bengals’ (2-1) offense has been flat, high-powered, and sloppy in their 3 preseason games.  They are averaging less than 4 yards per rush and 6 yards per pass (4.24 YPR and 6.57 YPP – 2009 NFL average).  Tonight they will be looking for more consistency moving the football and improved scoring efficiency.

The Buffalo Bills (1-1) improved in their 2nd preseason game with rookie running back C.J. Spiller debuting as a starter.  The Bills have averaged 5.6 yards per rush in their first two games.  The Bills improved in their passing game, including former starter Trent Edwards connecting with Lee Evans for a 70 yard touchdown pass.  Despite a poor showing in the first preseason game, the Bills defense rebounded holding the Colts to less than  300 total yards and forcing 4 turnovers.  I guess there are a few reasons for Bills fans to be optimistic (of course, it is only preseason).

The football simulation projected a slight Buffalo advantage; Bills 22.4 Bengals 20.2 for 42.6 total points.  Cincinnati’s average pass defense and Buffalo’s recently effective running game are primary drivers in the model results.  The Bills are the home underdog and appear to have betting value.  The model also predicts an Over on the total line.

Despite the betting value being with Buffalo and their improved performance, I am concerned with their defensive scoring efficiency (i.e. Cincinnati’s ability to convert points relative to total yards).  Considering their defensive weaknesses and improving offenses, I think today’s bet is on the over/under total.  Bet Cincinnati/Buffalo Over 35.  Follow all my picks on Twitter.  Good Luck!


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